GENERAL COMMENTS:
Monday's trade was mostly optimistic as the futures complex closed higher and both pork cutouts and boxed beef prices jumped higher as well. The feeder cattle market continues to closely monitor Superior's Video Royale sale as a lot of producers are making calls to market their calves. Hog prices closed lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.70 with a weighted average of $101.00 on 3,323 head. December corn is up 14 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $5.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 97.31 points and NASDAQ is up 8.38 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle market continued with its cautious rally through Monday's trade. With the cash cattle market unable to muster up any support, the market suffers fundamentally. August live cattle closed $0.05 higher at $122.12, October live cattle closed $0.07 higher at $127.27 and December live cattle closed $0.10 higher at $132.75. The cash cattle market saw a few head of cattle trade in Nebraska for $197.00 but there weren't enough traded to really say that any sort of tone was established. Significant trade most likely won't occur until after the week's online auction on Wednesday. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 119,000 head, steady with a week ago and 7,000 head more than year ago.
Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 77,209 head. Of that 72% (55,340 head) were purchased for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 28% (21,869 head) were purchased for the following 15- to 30-day delivery.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.54 ($281.00) and select up $4.19 ($263.38) with a movement of 127 loads (54.60 loads of choice, 26.90 loads of select, 24.52 loads of trim and 21.27 loads of ground beef).
TUESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Feedlots deserve higher prices amid a rally boxed beef market, but the fact remains that packers have cattle bought for this week and for the weeks to come through their deferred commitments, which minimizes their likelihood to support the cash cattle market.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Even though the corn contracts closed anywhere from $0.11 to $0.14 higher in the nearby contracts, the feeder cattle contracts were able to sustain their rallying position through closing. August feeders closed $0.07 higher at $158.25, September feeders closed $0.17 higher at $161.97 and October feeders closed $0.42 higher at $164.47. With last week's regression, the market once again has the opportunity to trade higher as it has a ways before running into the resistance at $162.00. The market will continue to look for technical support from traders and will intensely be watching the corn market, hoping that no wild rallies are in its near future, but early this week all eyes and ears are going to be on Superior's Video Royale sale. With right at 184,000 head of cattle selling this week at Superior's sale, the market will once again have a great understanding of what feeder cattle buyers are thinking for the months ahead. Luckily, the live cattle complex for the spring of 2022 continues to trade strong and the April board continues to hold its ground at $139.00 to $140.00. With the board painting a rosier picture for the months ahead in the live cattle market, and supplies of market-ready cattle expected to wane, the feeder cattle market stands a good chance at keeping its rally, so long as corn doesn't hop upon a new wild rally. At Joplin Regional Stockyards, compared to last week, feeder steers traded steady while feeder heifers traded steady to $4.00 higher. Demand and supply were both moderate at the sale as the facility amps up for their big cow and bull special this upcoming Wednesday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for July 30: up $1.54, $155.58.
LEAN HOGS:
Even though Monday's slaughter is lower due to some plants being down that were expected to be operational, the lean hog market closed rather optimistically. The board rallied with impressive gains well over $1.00 higher in all its contracts, the day's pork cutout value saw massive gains and the market's morale is still supportive. August lean hogs closed $1.30 higher $107.50, October lean hogs closed $1.47 higher at $89.50 and December lean hogs closed $1.22 higher at $82.87. Heading into the rest of the week, watching packer interest in the cash hog market and how pork cutout values fare will be incredibly useful. Pork cutouts total 238.06 loads with 220.24 loads of pork cuts and 17.82 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.82, $128.71. Monday's hog slaughter is estimated at 414,000 head, 49,000 head less than a week ago and 12,000 head less than a year ago. Friday's hog slaughter was revised to 424,000 head, which moves Saturday's week to date hog slaughter to 2,312,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for July 29: up $0.06, $112.08.
TUESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. With pork cutout values being up over $4.00 higher on Monday afternoon, packers could be aggressive in Tuesday's cash hog market as they hope to chase whatever profits the market offers before Labor Day buying ceases.
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