From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes:
Oct live cattle off $0.63, Dec live cattle off $0.70, Sep feeder cattle up $0.63, Oct feeder cattle off $1.35, Oct lean hogs up $3.28 and Dec lean hogs off $1.05. Market weakness developed in nearly all commodity markets Friday morning, as traders quickly backed away from previous market swings with the main focus on contract positioning. Cattle futures held the early weakness through closing bell, although moderate to firm buyer support trickled back into the hog complex during afternoon trade. The ability to break away from the rest of the complex and continue the three-day rally in hog futures helped not only strengthen underlying market technical factors but sparked buyer interest from outside market interest at the end of the week. Hog prices moved lower on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report in light trade, falling $0.19 with a weighted average of $81.48 on 4,300 head. December corn is down 2 1/4 cents per bushel, and December soybean meal is down $1.90 per ton. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 166 points, and the NASDAQ is down 137 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Late-week losses in live cattle futures were not the end-of-the-week moves the market needed. Firm losses quickly developed across all nearby contract months, creating concern that the momentum seen earlier in the week may quickly be offset by further pressure. Nearby contracts are still holding above weekly lows, which technically still puts Friday's losses in a "market correction" category. But the lack of follow-through support in the market while beef values still struggle to find stability and cash cattle prices have been unable to shift higher may bring about additional softness to the market early next week. Traders are mostly concerned about holding prices above support levels established Monday, but nearby futures prices have a long way to go to remain secure within the current trading range once again. October live cattle closed $0.80 lower at $122.80, December live cattle closed $1.05 lower at $127.52, and February live cattle closed $1.10 lower at $131.55. Cash cattle markets are silent Friday afternoon with bids hard to find and asking prices on cattle still left on showlists holding firm at $124 and higher live and $200 and higher dressed. The general softness in futures trade has left both sides more than willing to hold out until next week. Although a few scattered clean-up sales could trickle in through the end of the day, the market tone appears to be set. Cattle traded at $123 to $125 per cwt (mostly $123 to $124) live basis in the South, (steady) and mostly $200 dressed in the north, although the range was listed at $196 to $200. Northern cattle were generally $1 per cwt lower than last week's average.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head -- 3,000 less than a week ago and 6,000 head above year-ago totals. Week-to-date levels are at 660,000 head after including expected Saturday runs of 67,000 head, 63,000 ahead of last week and 12,000 above year-ago levels.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $3.53 ($314.47) and select down $0.52 ($279.75) with a movement of 155 loads (94.50 loads of choice, 29.94 loads of select, 8.33 loads of trim and 21.79 loads of ground beef).
MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to $1 lower. Both sides will be closely looking for weekly average prices Monday given the expectation that prices will remain steady to weak with the previous week. Bids and asking prices are likely to remain absent most of the day Monday, but packer interest should improve midweek.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Firm losses developed in feeder cattle trade Friday. Most of the trade activity had to do with limited volume and weaker outside markets. The inability to hold early week gains at the end of the week in most contracts is creating additional market bearishness through the complex. September, November and January futures posted triple-digit losses as initial light pressure slowly but steadily continued to build through the trading session. November and January futures have now broken through early week support levels, creating very limited support until these contract prices near $151 per cwt. The aggressive market tumble over the last four weeks from contract highs set in August creates widespread concern about further weakness through the entire complex. September feeders closed $1 lower at $154.87, October feeders closed $0.72 lower at $156.37 and November feeders closed $1.20 lower at $156.10. The CME feeder cattle index 9/16/2021: $154.60, up $0.58.
LEAN HOGS:
Late-day buying in lean hog futures quickly broke away from the rest of the livestock market as well as most other commodity markets, which posted moderate to firm losses Friday. Although early market weakness developed, the limited market activity and the recent strong upward shift in market trend sparked additional end-of-the-week buying just before closing bell. October futures posted the most limited gains of 25 cents per cwt, while deferred contracts led the market higher as late 2022 contracts held triple-digit gains at the end of the day. The momentum redeveloping in the lean hog complex following the early week price tumble is creating even more confidence that market lows have been set for this price cycle. This alone is helping to quickly spark both traditional lean hog buyers and traders from other areas who are looking for an actively moving market. October lean hogs closed $0.25 higher at $85.75, December lean hogs closed $0.60 higher at $75.05, and February lean hog futures closed $0.70 higher at $78.22. Pork prices eroded Friday afternoon as mixed price levels in primals limited overall market direction. Pork cutouts totaled 325.73 loads with 292.82 loads of pork cutouts and 32.91 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.56, $105.41. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 470,000 head -- 3,000 more than a week ago and up 7,000 from a year ago. Week-to-date slaughter is listed at 2.53 million head, accounting for the 185,000 head expected Saturday, currently 46,000 below year-ago levels. The CME lean hog index 9/16/2021: down $0.19, $94.26.
MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Cash hog prices may not have found the groove seen in futures at this point, although underlying support is starting to slowly build. This is likely to leave markets general steady early in the day, although price variability may continue as Friday continues.
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