GENERAL COMMENTS:
Friday's market didn't amount to much as the livestock contracts drifted lower throughout the day and the cash cattle market didn't see any more hungry bidders rush to its market. Heading into next week's trade, all eyes will be on the feeder cattle market to see if it can sustain in its new range. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.46 with a weighted average of $117.99 on 5,525 head. December corn is up 2 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $11.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 658.09 points.
From Friday to Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: August live cattle up $0.98, October live cattle up $0.60; August feeder cattle up $4.63, September feeder cattle up $4.95; July lean hogs up $2.05, August lean hogs up $0.65; September corn down $0.29, December corn down $0.20.
LIVE CATTLE:
Friday didn't amount to much for the live cattle market as the contracts closed lower and the cash cattle market's performance throughout the week wasn't much. August live cattle closed $0.47 lower at $134.92, October live cattle closed $0.37 lower at $139.55 and December live cattle closed $0.87 lower at $145.42. Throughout the week, Southern live traded averaged $137, which is steady with last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $230, which was $2.00 lower than Nebraska's weighted average last week. Through Friday's USDA report we can see that 69,982 head of cattle traded this week in the cash market. Monday's report will include any late trade that developed, but again this week's business was thinly traded. It's likely that the market keeps with this sideways to somewhat lower tone over the next three to four weeks as seasonally boxed beef prices and negotiated cash sales could endure some pressure. Next Friday the market will see another Cattle on Feed released as well as the midyear Cattle Inventory Report.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 123,000 head, 2,000 head less than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 54,000 head. This week's slaughter is estimated at 677,000 head, incomparable to a week ago but 27,000 head more than a week ago.
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $1.16 ($268.91) and select down $.12 ($241.79) with a movement of 82 loads (39.32 loads of choice, 20.87 loads of select, 8.88 loads of trim and 13.22 loads of ground beef). Throughout the week choice cuts averaged $268.27 (up $1.11 from last week) and select cuts averaged $242.03 (up $0.22 from a week ago) and the week's movement of cuts, grinds, and trim totaled 603 loads.
MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. As packers juggle committed cattle supplies and their need to support the cash market, it's likely that the market's tone over the next three to four week's continues in this steady to somewhat lower trend.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle market ran out of steam by Friday's market but still the spot August contract was able to close above the $176.00 trendline, which the market blew through earlier in the week. August feeders closed $2.55 lower at $176.35, September feeders closed $1.95 lower at $179.67 and October feeders closed $1.37 lower at $182.45. Next week the market will be tested to see if it can sustain above $176.00, which will be critical for the chart's performance. With a little support from the cash market, feeders should have no problem keep the board above $176 as demand has been hot for feeder cattle. Oklahoma's Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that, compared to two weeks ago, feeder steers and heifers traded $2.00 to $5.00 higher, steer calves traded $1.00 to $5.00 lower, and heifer calves sold $1.00 to $4.00 higher. The market's best demand was seen on the heavier weighted feeders as that will require fewer days on feed. Slaughter cows traded $7.00 to $8.00 lower and slaughter bulls sold $9.00 lower. The slaughter cow markets cratered this week as large numbers moved to market. Hot and dry conditions are limiting pasture grazing and hay supplies are tight. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for July 14: down $1.43, $172.62.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex closed mostly lower by Friday's end with the spot August contract being the only contract to walk into the weekend with a higher close. However, even with the contract's $0.25 gain, it still wasn't enough to push the market above its resistance at $110.00. Pork cutout prices were stellar in Friday's afternoon report as carcasses closed $3.67 higher with steady advancements made in most of the cuts. The loin led the market higher with a $6.36 jump, but then was followed the rib gaining $4.42, and butts increasing by $4.04. Pork cutouts totaled 168.97 loads with 148.26 loads of pork cuts and 20.71 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.67, $122.18. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 436,000 head, 20,000 head less than a week ago and 10,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's kill is projected to be around 22,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index July 13: up $0.57, $113.39.
MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Over the last three to four months, the cash hog market has steadily traded hogs on Tuesday and Wednesday, and for the remaining three days of the week the market's interest has been rather limited. With the stout interest that the hog market has seen from consumers this past week, it's likely that next week's market sees a hike in cash prices again as market-ready supplies are thin, but it may not be on Monday.
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