GENERAL COMMENTS:
The lean hog complex rounded out Friday's market with a bang on heightened demand and excellent support, but the cattle contacts weren't as confident as high corn prices have everyone leery. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $4.25 with a weighted average of $90.86 on 4,557 head. December corn is down 1/4 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $6.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 139.40 points.
From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: October live cattle down $0.18, December live cattle steady; September feeder cattle down $3.80, October feeder cattle down $4.32; October lean hogs up $3.73, December lean hogs up $4.85; December corn down $0.08, March corn down $0.06.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex ran out of steam ahead of Friday's end but that doesn't mean that the week was without triumphs. Throughout the week Southern live cattle traded for mostly $142 which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded for $226 to $227, which is steady to $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. The market's hesitancy to pressure resistance came as the week managed a lot of outside pressures from Monday's WASDE report to Tuesday's inflation notice, and the question of whether a railroad strike would happen. Regardless, it was positive that the futures complex held mostly steady, and feedlot's triumph of steady to $1.00 higher cash prices cannot be minimalized. Heading into next week's market, it will be important to see how the cattle were bought this week in regard to delivery times because if a majority of the cattle were bought for the deferred market -- then the upcoming week's cash cattle market could see some pressure. But given how aggressive packers have pushed processing speeds, it's likely that packers are in need of the cattle and bought them for the nearby delivery window. October live cattle closed $0.12 lower at $145.50, December live cattle closed $0.35 lower at $150.97 and February live cattle closed $0.27 lower at $155.10.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head - 9,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's kill is projected to be around 45,000 head. This week's slaughter is estimated at 667,000 head - 63,000 head more than a week ago and 27,000 head more than a year ago.
Friday's Imported Meant Passed for Entry report shares that fresh beef imports for the week totaled 18,692 metric tons with Canada, Mexico, and Australia carrying the lion's share of the imports. Fresh beef imports for 2022 currently total 843,742 metric tons, which is 8% greater than a year ago. Processed beef imports for the week total 1,687 metric tons which Brazil and Canada being the biggest importers. Processed beef imports for the year total 67,438 metric tons, which is 21% greater than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.06 ($252.40) and select down $3.30 ($226.65) with a movement of 139 loads (76.64 loads of choice, 40.15 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 22.04 loads of ground beef). Throughout the week choice cuts averaged $259.27 (down $0.46 from the week before) and select cuts averaged $236.90 (down $2.17 from the previous week) with a total movement of cuts, grinds, and trim totaling 650 loads.
MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Higher. Given that packers didn't pay the cash cattle market much attention over the last three weeks, it's likely that they'll need to buy more cattle next week to avoid becoming short bought.
FEEDER CATTLE:
As the corn complex danced around both sides of steady ahead of Friday's end, the feeder cattle market closed mostly lower as the idea of higher feed prices scares traders and cattle feeders alike. September feeders closed $0.15 lower at $179.20, October feeders closed $0.32 higher at $181.25 and November feeders closed $0.02 lower at $182.75. Feeder cattle demand has been touch-and-go this past week as it's evident that farmer feeders are in the field for harvest and until this year's corn crop is harvested, some level of volatility will remain in the market. Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction summary shared that throughout the entire state and when compared to last week feeder steers and heifers traded $4.00 to $8.00 lower. Demand was moderate on feeder cattle despite numbers continuing to get tighter. Steer calves sold mostly steady to $4.00 lower, with the biggest decline seen on five weights. Heifer calves traded $1.00 to $3.00 lower. Slaughter cows sold mostly steady, except bonder cows as they traded $3.00 higher. Slaughter bulls sold $3.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 39%. The CME feeder cattle index 9/15/2022: down $1.69, $176.82.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex powered through Friday's end as traders saw the support from the market's fundamental side that they needed to see. From strong export demand, to moderate domestic consumer demand and regained interest from packers in the cash market -- the lean hog complex had much to be excited about before this week's end. October lean hogs closed $0.85 higher at $96.90, December lean hogs closed $0.32 higher at $87.97 and February lean hogs closed $0.40 higher at $91.65. It's likely that packers are more aggressive in next week's cash market as they have also seen the heightened interest from consumers and now they have more margin to work with as packer margins near $28 per carcass as appose to the $5 per carcass that they were dealing with just weeks ago. Pork cutouts totaled 232.06 loads with 202.24 loads of pork cuts and 29.83 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.54, $106.39. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 473,000 head - 7,000 head less than a week ago and 9,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 75,000 head. The CME lean hog index 9/14/2022: up $0.19, $97.77.
MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. Even though packers could show more interest in next week's market, it's unlikely that it's seen in Monday's market.
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