Tuesday, September 13, 2022

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Cattle Trend Lower After Monday's Surge in Grains

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The lean hog complex is continuing to chop sideways as its cattle counterparts face tough technical pushback. The cattle contracts are still absorbing Monday's grain surge as the idea of $7.00 per bushel corn is enough to stop any buyer in their tracks. However, if the cash cattle market can see steady to higher prices this week, that may be enough fundamental support to slight boost the cattle market's morale. December corn is down 4 1/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is down $7.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 882.35 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle market is enduring a tough go to Tuesday's market as traders have grown leery of support the complex amid Monday's surge in grain prices and as fundamental support in the market hasn't shown any supportive gestures. October live cattle are down $0.95 at $144.80, December live cattle are down $1.10 at $150.25 and February live cattle are down $1.12 at $154.42. The market sits ripe to continue to rally, but before trades will push the market any higher, they're going to need to see support from the cash cattle market. It's yet to be known what this week's cash cattle market will pan out to be, but as the noon hour is approaching, bids are starting to develop. Bids of $140 to $141 are being offered in Kansas but at this point, feedlots are letting that bid sit idle. Asking prices in the South are noted at $143 to $145 and asking prices in the North are still illusive. However, if packers are showing interest in the market on Tuesday at noon, that tells everyone that they need cattle and that feedlots may be able to push this week's market higher if they play their cards right.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $2.07 ($256.87) and select down $0.85 ($234.91) with a movement of 113 loads (57.57 loads of choice, 22.10 loads of select, 3.22 loads of trim and 30.32 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even though the corn market is trending $0.02 to $0.03 lower, the feeder cattle market is plunging $2.00 to $3.00 lower as the idea of $7.00 per bushel corn makes feeders nauseous. September feeders are down $2.22 at $179.30, October feeders are down $3.17 at $179.95 and November feeders are down $2.97 at $181.82. The feeder cattle market is fully absorbing Monday's WASDE report still and that's why prices are fainting lower. It's likely that prices in the countryside are noticeably lower too as buyers could be sitting on their bids until they better understand what this year's corn crop is going to really amount to.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is continuing to drift sideways as the market trades higher and is rallying off Monday's weaker close. The cash hog market isn't seeing much interest as prices aren't even available due to confidentiality. Until packers see more margin in their business it's likely that the market continues to chop sideways in their narrow trading range. October lean hogs are up $2.22 at $94.10, December lean hogs are up $1.52 at $84.30 and February lean hogs are up $1.27 at $88.47.

The projected lean hog index for Sept. 12 is down $0.62 at $97.67 and the actual index for Sept. 9 is down $1.28 at $98.29. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidentiality. However, we can see that 3,465 head have traded and that the market's five-day moving average now sits at $93.30. Pork cutouts total 199.21 loads with 160.20 loads of pork cuts and 39.02 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.94, $104.77.




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