The cattle contracts closed lower as Friday's export data cast a lousy, unsupportive tone across the market, but the lean hog complex was able to rally as its market saw phenomenal export support. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.50 with a weighted average of $87.29 on 3,971 head. December corn is down 8 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 403.89 points.
From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: October live cattle up $1.63, December live cattle down $0.28; October feeder cattle down $0.92, November feeder cattle down $0.85; October lean hogs up $0.42, December lean hogs up $5.10; December corn up $0.06, March corn up $0.05.
LIVE CATTLE:The live cattle complex grew more stressed as the week played on. Outside pressures continue to be a driving force that the live cattle complex has to manage, and unfortunately these pressures aren't easing up. From Thursday's bitter Consumer Price Index report, which showed inflation up 8.2% compared to a year ago, mixed with Friday's lousy export data, the live cattle complex stood little chances at closing higher. December live cattle closed $0.15 lower at $147.77, February live cattle closed $0.60 lower at $151.10 and April live cattle closed $0.77 lower at $154.82. Throughout the week Southern live cattle traded for $145, which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle sold for $232, which is $2.00 higher than last weeks weighted. Packers continue to be active in the cash market as they know that market-ready supplies are only going to become thinner and harder to buy in the weeks ahead.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 112,000 head, 6,000 head less than a week ago and 7,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 37,000 head. This week's slaughter is estimated at 660,000 head, 4,000 head less than a week ago and 17,000 head more than a year ago.
Fresh beef imports for the week totaled 18,666 metric tons with Canada, Mexico and Australia being the biggest importers. To date, 2022 fresh beef imports total 924,480 metric tons, which is up 7% compared to a year ago. Processed beef imports for the week totaled 1,794 metric tons with Brazil and Canada being the biggest suppliers. To date, 2022 processed beef imports total 1,794 metric tons, which is up 16% compared to a year ago.
Beef net sales of 13,200 mt for 2022 were primarily for Japan (5,300 mt), South Korea (2,900 mt) and Mexico (2,300 mt).
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.45 ($246.98) and select up $1.08 ($216.94) with a movement of 104 loads (62.47 loads of choice, 15.40 loads of select, 6.87 loads of trim and 19.07 loads of ground beef). The choice/select spread sits at $30.04. Throughout the week, choice cuts averaged $246.31 (down $0.58 from a week ago) and select cuts averaged $214.74 (down $4.37 from last week) and the week's total movement of cuts, grinds and trim totaled 722 loads.
MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Higher. With front-end supplies extremely thin, packers will likely be faced with paying at least $1.00 more again next week.
FEEDER CATTLE:The feeder cattle complex closed lower as Thursday's Consumer Price Index report pushed traders away from the market as everyone fully expects interest rates to continue to climb as a means to try to curb inflation. Nevertheless, even with the corn complex closing on a lower note, feeder didn't stand a chance at closing higher as traders kept themselves an arm's distance from the market. October feeders closed $0.95 lower at $173.80, November feeders closed $1.32 lower at $174.77 and January feeders closed $1.20 lower at $175.10. Oklahoma's Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that, throughout the week and throughout the entire state, compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers traded steady to $3.00 lower. Steer calves sold steady to $2.00 lower while heifer calves traded mostly steady. Through feeder numbers are tighter, the uncertainty of whether or not buyers will come out on the backside of these calves with a profit is a big enough risk to keep some buyers at bay, especially with grain prices being volatile and hay prices being high. Slaughter cows sold steady to $2.00 lower and slaughter bulls sold $2.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 43%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for Oct. 13: up $0.08, $174.11.
LEAN HOGS:While the cattle contracts regressed throughout Friday's market, the lean hog contracts ran through Friday's hours seeming to celebrate the excellent demand found in Friday's export report. December lean hogs closed $1.65 higher at $82.25, February lean hogs closed $1.70 higher at $83.42 and April lean hogs closed $1.55 higher at $86.95. For two weeks in a row now, the lean hog market has been supported by phenomenal export demand, which is helping move product and easing the stress of carrying all the market's need on our domestic customers. Given that the market was able to trade higher throughout the majority of the week, traders will likely approach next week's market with the same supportive tone so long as fundamental support remains. Pork cutouts total 331.78 loads with 292.74 loads of pork cuts and 39.04 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.21, $101.86. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 473,000 head, 7,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 113,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index for Oct. 12: up $0.18, $92.67.
Pork net sales of 29,900 mt were primarily for Mexico (8,100 mt), China (5,900 mt) and Japan (5,300 mt).
MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Lower. Packers haven't been showing much interest in Monday's market, but they'll likely begin buying again on Tuesday or Wednesday.
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