GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a back-and-forth day for the livestock complex as traders tried to manage the external pressures that loom above the livestock complex, but that pressure did cause the market some grief. Thankfully, before closing, however, both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts were able to find some mild support. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $1.34 with a weighted average of $71.99 on 4,945 hogs. July corn closed up 1/2 at $5.89 and July soybean meal closed down $0.30 at $424.6. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 286.50 at 33,127.74.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex struggled throughout the day as open interest continues to decline and as external banking pressures continue to drive fear in the market. But as the day traded on, the deferred contracts were able to close slightly higher, and only the market's nearby contracts closed lower. No new cash cattle trade was reported and at this time it's looking like the week's business is all but done with. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle have traded for $172 which is $1.00 lower than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle have traded for $281 which is $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average. June live cattle closed $0.08 lower at $161.575, August live cattle closed $0.13 lower at $159.425 and October live cattle closed $0.15 lower at $163.85.
Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 120,000 head, 2,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago.
Thursday's actual slaughter data shared that, for the week ending April 22, steers averaged 892 pounds, which is 2 pounds lighter than a week ago and 14 pounds lighter than a year ago. For the same week, heifers averaged 825 pounds, which is steady with the previous week but 12 pounds lighter than a year ago.
Beef net sales of 20,100 mt for 2023 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 59% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (4,700 mt), South Korea (3,600 mt) and China (3,400 mt).
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.43 ($309.52) and select up $0.37 ($287.49) with a movement of 129.45 loads (88.89 loads of choice, 21.22 loads of select, 7.96 loads of trim and 11.38 loads of ground beef).
FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. If any more trade does happen to develop, prices will likely remain steady with the week's trend.
FEEDER CATTLE:
As the day traded on, the feeder cattle complex was able to find support in the fact that deferred live cattle contracts closed higher and shake most of the market's pressure ahead of closing. The corn complex didn't pose much of a threat to the market as it closed steady/somewhat lower. We're starting to hear more conversations being had about the need for moisture. Yes, this last winter helped ease drought constraints in most areas, but with the spring warming up faster than usual, cow-calf producers are needing more moisture for their grass pastures to really come on. August feeders closed $0.37 lower at $223.15, September feeders closed $0.07 lower at $226.67 and October feeders closed $0.10 higher at $228.62. At Winter Livestock in Pratt, Kansas, at their midsession point and when compared to a week ago, steers and heifers were both selling $3.00 to $5.00 lower. Supply was moderate at 2,500 head but demand was called moderate to good. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 96%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for May 3: down $1.17, $201.53.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex was pressured greatly throughout Thursday's market even though the complex received a strong export-sales report and even though pork cutout values closed higher. Even so, the contracts gapped lower at the day's start and had a tough time finding footing in Thursday's market as the day passed by. The cash complex wasn't much support as it did close lower, and packers bought less than 5,000 head throughout the day. June lean hogs closed $0.85 lower at $87.15, July lean hogs closed $1.07 lower at $88.25 and August lean hogs closed $0.95 lower at $89.55. Pork Cutouts totaled 264.42 loads with 224.96 loads of pork cuts and 39.46 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.05 at $80.12. The CME Lean Hog Index for May 2: up $0.76, $73.78. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 471,000 head, 3,000 head less than a week ago and 7,000 head less than a year ago.
Pork net sales of 49,000 mt for 2023 were down 9% from the previous week but up 15% from the prior four-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (14,600 mt), China (14,200 mt) and South Korea (7,700 mt).
FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, it's fair to assume that packers have fulfilled their needs for the week and won't really dip back into the cash market until next week.
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