GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a lousy day for most of the livestock complex. The futures contracts closed mostly lower and fundamentally the markets weren't supported by pork/beef demand nor cash trade. If Thursday can present a strong export sales report, that could help the market's moral. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $0.56 with a weighted average of $73.33 on 8,795 hogs. July corn closed up 8 1/2 at $5.885 and July soybean meal closed down $3.00 at $424.9. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 270.29 at 33,414.24.
LIVE CATTLE:
Talk about a midweek Monday-type day. The live cattle complex couldn't win no matter where it looked. Cash cattle prices continued to trade lower with the week's trend, the futures market sank lower and boxed beef prices closed lower too. Wednesday's weaker close pressured the live cattle contracts to break below the market's sideways trending range and pressure both the 40-day and 100-day moving averages. June live cattle closed $1.25 lower at $161.65, August live cattle closed $1.40 lower at $159.55 and October live cattle closed $1.30 lower at $164.00. A little more cash cattle trade developed in the North where cattle sold again for $281 which is steady with the week's trend but $3.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Some more trade could develop ahead of the week's end, but at this point packers aren't seeming too concerned about procuring more cattle when they have full control of the cash market it seems.
Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 126,000 head, 4,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.15 ($309.09) and select down $1.54 ($287.12) with a movement of 91.73 loads (69.51 loads of choice, 13.03 loads of select, 3.04 loads of trim and 6.15 loads of ground beef).
THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week's trend. The market could move some more cattle this week, but prices will likely hold steady at this point.
FEEDER CATTLE:
As the day traded on, the feeder cattle complex only grew weaker and weaker as the lack of support from the live cattle/cash cattle market mixed with higher corn prices left traders extremely uneasy. May feeders closed $2.52 lower at $203.42, August feeders closed $2.65 lower at $223.52 and September feeders closed $2.52 lower at $226.75. Unfortunately, with the cash cattle market having already traded cattle, it's likely that the live cattle complex keeps with its lower trend, which will likely continue to negatively affect the feeder cattle complex. At Ozarks Regional Stockyards in West Plains, Missouri, compared to last week, calves under 600 pounds sold steady to $5.00 higher, but some instances of as much as $10.00 higher on heifers. Feeders over 600 pounds traded steady but some weaker tones were noted. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 39%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for May 2: unavailable at this time.
LEAN HOGS:
The midday hope that the market's better pork demand would allow pork cutout values to again close slightly higher and cash prices to keep with their upward trend didn't come to fruition by Wednesday's closing bell. As the day traded on, the lean hog complex absorbed some of the negative moral that's lingering above the cattle contracts and therefore the contracts closed lower. June lean hogs closed $1.95 lower at $88.00, July lean hogs closed $2.10 lower at $89.32 and August lean hogs closed $2.00 lower at $90.50. The biggest let down and largely reason why pork cutout values ended the day lower is because the ham fell $5.12. Thursday's market could still trade higher if a favorable export report is released Thursday morning. Pork Cutouts totaled 280.42 loads with 236.13 loads of pork cuts and 44.29 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are down $2.01 at $80.07. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 467,000 head - 10,000 head less than a week ago and 12,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index for May 1: up $0.92, $73.02.
THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Thursday's cash hog market is a gamble, prices could just as easily trade higher as they could lower as packers have been rather unpredictable in the cash hog market lately.
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