Friday, November 10, 2023

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Markets Stabilize

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Light to moderate buyer support has moved into most livestock futures contracts midday Friday. Morning trade started off on a weaker note once again as follow-through liquidation trickled into the complex. But at this point, sell orders seem to have been filled, allowing for the waiting buyers to slowly but steadily move back into the market. Feeder cattle trade is showing the most significant gains with short-covering seen midday. It stands to reason feeder cattle trade will have the most rebound potential at the end of the day, given the feeder cattle market was also the hardest hit by recent price tumbles. Firm support is also seen in lean hog trade, while live cattle futures are mixed to mostly higher in a narrow range at midday. December corn is down 5 1/2 at $4.625 and December soybean meal is up $0.50 at $450.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 173.86 at 34,065.80.

LIVE CATTLE :

Live cattle futures are mixed in a narrow trading range midday Friday following initial price pressure that followed the weaker Thursday trend. Even if markets do show a strong closing surge, this will not change the overall bearish tone of the market seen during the week, but it will help to give the market a much-needed breather heading into the weekend. Given the softness in cash values and recent widespread price losses, the live cattle complex remains vulnerable to additional liquidation during the next couple of months. The fact that the Nov. 1 cattle on feed report will be released next week brings more questions than answers to the table at this point.

Cash cattle may be done for the week following Thursday's trade activity. Once the dust settled on trade activity Thursday, it appears more cattle were sold than initially expected. Although there is a potential for some late-week trade to trickle into the market, bids remain quiet Friday morning. Trade this week is reported at $180 to $181, mostly $181 per cwt in the South. This is $5 per cwt lower than last week. Northern dressed trade is seen at $285 to $287 per cwt, generally $5 to $7 per cwt lower than last week. Of the cattle still left on showlists, asking prices remain at $182 live in the South and $289 dressed in the North. December live cattle are $0.25 lower at $174.1, February live cattle are $0.35 higher at $174.825, April live cattle are $0.03 lower at $176.925. 

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $0.51 ($299.93) and select down $1.52 ($267.90) with a movement of 54.58 loads (27.68 loads of choice, 11.04 loads of select, 3.53 loads of trim and 12.33 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures have bounced firmly higher Friday morning as recent widespread liquidation has stalled, allowing for moderate to active short covering to develop across all contract months. November feeder cattle futures are trading above $230 per cwt once again. Although this price is still $10 per cwt below where markets closed last week, the phycology of moving out of the $220s is helping to create some late week market support. A one-day bounce is definitely not enough to indicate that the recent market pressure is over, but the ability to even temporarily break away from six-month lows is being viewed as positive at the end of the week. November feeders are $1.38 higher at $230.375, January feeders are $1.63 higher at $226.55 and March feeders are $1.65 higher at $228.90.

LEAN HOGS:

Light to moderate buyer support has slowly but steadily moved into lean hog futures trade with spot contracts nearing $1 per cwt gains at midday. The underlying support in the complex comes following mixed but unstable movements Thursday as traders remain cautious of further strong market gains, but building fundamentals point to opportunities to draw additional buyer interest into the market over the coming weeks. Spot December contracts have rebounded over $6 per cwt from contract lows set in October, but seem to have found themselves confined within a $3 per cwt trading range from $70 to $73.27 per cwt. There seems very little incentive to break out of this sideways range in the immediate future, which could further frustrate traders waiting for firmer market direction. December lean hogs are $1.15 higher at $72.6, February lean hogs are $0.95 higher at $76.15 and April lean hogs are $1.28 higher at $82.00.

Hog Prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report, down $3.15 with a weighted average of $65.94, ranging from $61.00 to $66.00 on 1,083 head with a five-day rolling average of $68.43. Pork Cutouts totaled 131.83 loads with 120.24 loads of pork cuts and 11.59 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.10 at $85.56.




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