Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Markets Power through Excited for 2025

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle complex is eager to welcome in the New Year and ran aggressively through all of Tuesday's trade. Still no cash cattle trade has developed but packer demand should be strong on Thursday when the market resumes. March corn is up 6 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $5.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 29.51 points.

**The markets will be closed on Wednesday, Jan. 1 for the New Year holiday. Regular DTN market commentary will resume on Thursday, Jan. 2.**

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex closed higher yet again as the market continues to grind higher and higher as traders seem thoroughly convinced that the market's strong fundamental outlook will again be prosperous in 2025. February live cattle closed $1.30 higher at $191.60, April live cattle closed $1.25 higher at $194.27 and June live cattle closed $0.85 higher at $189.62. Today's momentum stemmed from the understanding of the market's fundamental position, as today's boxed beef prices didn't lend any support and there's still been no cash cattle trade to speak of. Asking prices are noted in the South at $195 plus but are still not established in the North. Packer demand will likely surface bright and early on Thursday as packers haven't been able to get many cattle bought over the last two weeks. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 102,000 head -- incomparable to last week but 19,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.15 ($324.22) and select down $0.24 ($294.52) with a movement of 119 loads (64.63 loads of choice, 33.48 loads of select, 7.24 loads of trim and 13.45 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Given that over the course of the last two weeks packers haven't been able to buy more than 50,000 head on either week likely means that they're short bought and will need to be somewhat aggressive in this week's trade.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex powered through the day as traders continue to aggressively support the market as they see the market's strong long-term bullishness. January feeders closed $1.40 higher at $263.02, March feeders closed $1.92 higher at $262.97 and April feeders closed $2.27 higher at $263.55. Some sale barns will resume their weekly sales later this week, and given that most auction barns have been closed for the last two weeks, demand is expected to be strong. The CME feeder cattle index 12/30/2024: up $7.08, $261.05.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex endured another stressful day as the market kept with its downward ascend, and felt additional pressure as pork cutout values dove $4.00 lower. February lean hogs closed $0.32 lower at $81.30, April lean hogs closed $0.47 lower at $86.57 and June lean hogs closed $0.52 lower at $99.17. It was interesting to see that several of the cuts posted significant price drops as the picnic plummeted $9.13, the ham fell $5.66 and the loin fell $3.23. The market is desperately longing to see better consumer support which has been an issue as of late. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.27 with a weighed average price of $80.08 on 6,180 head. Pork cutouts totaled 408.44 loads with 363.48 loads of pork cuts and 44.97 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $4.02, $90.30. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 411,000 head -- incomparable to last week but 73,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 12/27/2024: down $0.50, $84.35.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers bought just over 6,000 head today in the cash market it's likely that they're essentially done buying for the week.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Keep Rallying as Fundamental Bullishness Prevails

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is mixed as the cattle contracts continue to rally, believing the week's cash cattle trade will be higher and lend support, but the lean hog complex continues to trek downward. Asking prices are noted in the South at $195-plus. March corn is up 4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $1.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 104.26 points

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is continuing to rally modestly as the market believes positive trade could be in store again for this week's cash cattle market. And while boxed beef prices are slightly lower on the midday report, traders seem committed at this point to continuing to advance the complex. February live cattle are up $0.82 at $191.12, April live cattle are up $0.80 at $193.82, and June live cattle are up $0.67 at $189.45. No trade has developed in the cash cattle market and it's unlikely any will ahead of the New Year's Day break, when the markets will all be closed. Packer interest will likely begin to surface Thursday. Asking prices in the South are noted at $195-plus but are not established in the North.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.51 ($324.86) and select down $0.48 ($294.28) with a movement of 59 loads (31.87 loads of choice, 18.53 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 8.58 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is continuing to rally aggressively into Tuesday's noon hour as traders seem confident in the market's long-term bullishness. It was exhilarating to see the contracts conquer the resistance threshold at $260 just last week; and here today the contracts seem confident in pushing into the $262 range. January feeders are up $1.35 at $262.97, March feeders are up $1.57 at $262.62, and April feeders are up $1.65 at $262.92.

LEAN HOGS:

As if Monday's sharp descent wasn't enough, the lean hog complex is continuing to drift lower through Tuesday's trade. February lean hogs are down $0.92 at $80.70, April lean hogs are down $0.60 at $86.45, and June lean hogs are down $0.50 at $99.20. The spot February contract has already surpassed the market's previous support at $82 and could begin to pressure the market's next support threshold at $80.00.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 12/30/2024 is down $0.08 at $84.27, and the actual index for 12/27/2024 is down $0.50 at $84.35. Hog prices average $79.59 on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, ranging from $74.00 to $81.00 on 2,365 head and a five-day rolling average of $79.27. Pork cutouts total 220.82 loads with 197.40 loads of pork cuts and 23.42 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.41, $91.91.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Mixed Trading Activity Expected to Close Out Year

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures remain supported as consumer demand remains strong. Boxed beef prices gained by leaps and bounds Monday with choice up $2.99 and select up $3.63. It is as if consumers want to celebrate the upcoming new year with beef. The continued strength of boxed beef may indicate packers need to be aggressive again this week. Cash cattle are not expected to trade Tuesday, but are expected to be higher. The December live cattle contract will cease trading Tuesday with February taking over as the lead month with a $4.00 discount. It is a full day of trading Tuesday with the markets closed Wednesday. The Commitments of Traders report showed fund traders reducing their live cattle long position by 4,117 contracts to a net-long position of 132,096. They sold 372 feeder cattle contracts, bringing their net -ong position to 18,744 contracts.

Hog futures took it on the chin Monday with liquidation running rampant. The combination of the weakness of pork demand and year-end selling to close out the books pressured the market. Pork cutout values declined $0.75, pressured by hams dropping $7.01. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $1.54 on limited volume. Packers should remain aggressive Tuesday as they may want to purchase hogs early rather than wait until later in the week. February hog futures closed at the lowest level since Oct. 17, breaking below the recent trading range. The Commitments of Traders report showed fund traders as net sellers of 1,882 futures contracts, reducing their long positions to 117,017 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Boxed beef prices continue to increase as demand remains strong. Higher beef prices have not impacted consumer preferences as the choice is beef.	1)	High prices cure high prices and the beef market may be nearing the level at which demand may suffer. International demand is beginning to reflect this.
2)	Cash is expected to trade higher this week as the fundamentals remain supportive. Feedlots will hold as they anticipate the packers may be short-bought.	2)	Cattle futures need to hold above technical support as traders liquidate to close out the books for the end of the year.
3)	The pressure on hog futures Monday may have been year-end positioning to close out the books. Traders may be willing to buy into the market after the beginning of the year.	3)	The weakness of pork cutouts has not been supportive to the market. Demand seems to have slowed into the end of the year.
4)	Continued strong hog slaughter should keep hog supplies current and weights from increasing. This should provide support to the market.	4)	The large decline in futures Monday did technical damage to the market. It may be difficult for the futures to regain the losses in the foreseeable future.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Mixed Tones Surface in for the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mostly quiet day for the livestock complex as the contracts traded but nothing overly eventful transpired throughout the day. It's assumed that the cash cattle market will trade higher again this week, but it's too early in the week for any developments to have surfaced. March corn is down 1 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $1.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 418.48 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex traded higher throughout the majority of the day, but some of the nearby contracts grew weary ahead of Monday's close. It wasn't from a lack of fundamental support however as boxed beef prices closed higher and it's assumed that cash cattle prices will trade higher again this week. But rather instead it seemed as though traders grew anxious about 'putting the cart before the horse' in this week's market as they'd like to see how the market's fundamentals play out. February live cattle closed $0.35 lower at $190.30, April live cattle closed $0.32 lower at $193.02 and June live cattle closed $0.05 lower at $188.77. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 123,000 head -- 5,000 head more than last week and incomparable to last year. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Kansas, and Nebraska/Colorado, but lower in Texas.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $192 which is $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $307 which is also $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 44,027 head -- of that 86% (38,032 head) were committed to the nearby delivery while the remaining 14% (5,995 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.99 ($325.37) and select up $3.63 ($294.76) with a movement of 104 loads (66.78 loads of choice, 18.14 loads of select, 4.89 loads of trim and 14.08 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Over the last two weeks in the cash market, packers haven't been able to buy more than 50,000 head, which likely means that they'll need to buy more aggressively this week to avoid being short bought when regular kill schedules resume.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Around Monday's noon hour, I wasn't confident in whether or not the market's momentum would be strong enough to sustain a higher close by the day's end -- but thankfully support prevailed and the complex grew more confident through the afternoon's hours. January feeders closed $0.25 higher at $261.62, March feeders closed $0.50 higher at $261.05 and April feeders closed $0.22 higher at $261.27. I think it's rather telling of the market's current state that not only did the contracts remain above the market's resistance threshold at $260 -- but in fact, traders took it a step further and pushed the nearby contracts above $261 seeming to indicate that the market's trajectory is higher. The CME feeder cattle index 12/27/2024: down $4.35, $253.97.

LEAN HOGS:

Although cash hog prices closed slightly higher, the market wasn't willing to change its direction as the board's downward trend was set in motion earlier today and traders weren't going to be reckoned with. It wasn't helpful however that pork cutout values closed slightly lower, with the biggest hit coming from the ham's $7.01 decline. February lean hogs closed $2.52 lower at $81.62, April lean hogs closed $2.47 lower at $87.05 and June lean hogs closed $2.30 lower at $99.70. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.54 with a weighed average price of $78.81 on 1,725 head. Pork cutouts totaled 425.49 loads with 390.93 loads of pork cuts and 34.55 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.71, $94.36. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head – steady with last week and incomparable to a year ago. The CME lean hog index 12/26/2024: down $0.25, $84.85.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Given that packers weren't overly aggressive in last week's market, it's likely that they're going to need to buy more supply this week to keep from becoming short bought.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders May Adjust Portfolios For End of The Year

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a successful week for the cattle complex. Even though trading activity was lighter than usual due to the Christmas holiday, traders followed the fundamentals and reacted accordingly. Cash cattle traded higher with Southern live cattle up $1.00 and Northern dressed cattle up $2.00. Boxed beef prices were higher with choice up $1.99 and select up $2.36. Demand is strong with packers needing to remain aggressive. The June and later live cattle and all of the feeder cattle contracts pushed through and closed above technical resistance opening the way to retest the contract highs. The December live cattle contract will cease trading on Tuesday with February taking over as the lead contract. The January feeder cattle contract closed at the highest level since May 28. It is another holiday-shortened week and the close of another year.

Hog futures traded on both sides of unchanged with only the front-month February contract posting a slight loss. The market may be under pressure early Monday in reaction to both lower cash and cutouts on Friday. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $1.81 with cutouts down $0.62. There is a potential packers may be aggressive early in the week as they may want to procure most of their needs early rather than wait until after the holiday. Futures have been holding in a sideways pattern and may remain choppy throughout the week.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Live cattle and feeder cattle futures pushed through and closed above resistance. This should open the way for further upside potential.	1)	Weekly beef export sales were down 85% from the previous week. The high prices may continue to impact international demand. The low sales were not due to the holiday week as this was from the previous week.
2)	Beef demand remains strong and may continue that way for the foreseeable future. Packers need to remain aggressive to meet the demand.	2)	If there is any word of the resumption of the importation of cattle from Mexico, the market will react negatively for a short period.
3)	Hog futures have been holding sideways and seem to be building support. The demand fundamentals need to improve to turn the trend higher.	3)	Weekly export sales of pork were down 37% from the previous week. Sales will need to improve or prices could weaken.
4)	The hog slaughter pace remains above a year ago, which should keep supplies from backing up.	4)	Hog futures are expected to remain sideways during the holiday-shortened week providing little direction.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Northern Dressed Cattle Traded $2.00 Higher; Southern Live Cattle Traded $1.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

All in all, it was another supportive day for the livestock complex as the contracts closed higher and cash cattle prices traded higher too. Northern dressed cattle traded $2.00 higher compared to last week and Southern live cattle traded $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. March corn is up 1/4 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is down $4.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 333.59 points.

From Friday to Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: December live cattle up $2.18, February live cattle up $2.25; January feeder cattle up $5.78, March feeder cattle up $4.73; February lean hogs down $1.77, April lean hogs down $1.00; March corn up $0.08, May corn up $0.10.

Friday's export report beef net sales of 1,100 mt for 2024 were down 85% from the previous week and 81% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Japan (1,000 mt), Mexico (500 mt) and South Korea (300 mt). Pork net sales of 7,100 mt for 2024 were down 37% from the previous week and 67% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (2,000 mt), Mexico (1,400 mt) and China (1,400 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

It's utterly incredible to sit back and think about all that the live cattle market has accomplished through 2024 -- and part of that success has been from the relentless commitment of beef demand and feedlot managers' dedication that prices have continued to advance week in and week out even during the holiday, like this past week. The live cattle complex again rounded out the day higher as traders were elated to see cash cattle prices trading higher. December live cattle closed $0.72 higher at $193.50, February live cattle closed $0.55 higher at $190.65 and April live cattle closed $0.75 higher at $193.35. Throughout the week Southern live cattle traded at $192 which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle traded at $307 which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 123,000 head -- 6,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 36,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 434,000 head -- incomparable to a week ago but 66,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.99 ($322.38) and select up $2.36 ($291.13) with a movement of 87 loads (52.66 loads of choice, 15.75 loads of select, 8.08 loads of trim and 10.78 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. With beef demand as strong as it is, packers will likely continue to support the market as they can't afford to be short bought anytime in the near future.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was a powerful day for the feeder cattle complex as the market was able to successfully close above its long-term resistance of $260 in nearly all of the contracts. Truthfully, I'm surprised to see that the market encapsulated enough power in today's trade to be able to successfully conquer such a barrier. The real test will come next week when traders either decide to continue supporting the complex or once again drop prices lower. January feeders closed $2.07 higher at $261.37, March feeders closed $1.05 higher at $260.55 and April feeders closed $1.02 higher at $261.05. CME feeder cattle index 12/26/2024: down $2.45, $258.32.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was able to inch the market higher through Friday's end as traders were thankful for the better consumer support late in the week. And although Friday's afternoon cutout prices dipped slightly lower, all in all, after the Christmas holiday retailers rebuying to again stock their coolers helped pork cutout values and brought additional support to the marketplace. February lean hogs closed $0.05 lower at $84.15, April lean hogs closed $0.27 higher at $89.52 and June lean hogs closed $0.45 higher at $102.00. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.81 with a weighted average price of $77.27 on 1,894 head. Pork cutouts total 241.89 loads with 198.04 loads of pork cuts and 43.84 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.62, $95.07. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 487,000 head -- 4,000 head more than a week ago and 9,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 413,000 head. CME lean hogs index 12/23/2024: up $0.35, $85.10.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Given that next week's market will also be short because of the New Year holiday there's a chance that packers could be somewhat aggressive in Monday's cash hog market.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Southern Live Cattle Trading at $192

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Both the live cattle and lean hog contracts are continuing to trade higher as the market is pleased to see meat prices continuing to trade higher. Some light cash cattle trade has been reported in the South at $192 which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. March corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is down $1.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 516.44 points.

Friday's export report beef net sales of 1,100 mt for 2024 were down 85% from the previous week and 81% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Japan (1,000 mt), Mexico (500 mt) and South Korea (300 mt). Pork net sales of 7,100 mt for 2024 were down 37% from the previous week and 67% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (2,000 mt), Mexico (1,400 mt) and China (1,400 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

Even though the feeder cattle complex is trading slightly lower, the live cattle contracts have been able to maintain their upward trek as the market is seeing strong support from higher boxed beef prices, and some stronger cash cattle sales have been reported in the South. There's been a light movement of cattle traded in the South at $192 which is $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Bids of $305 have again surfaced in the North, but with feedlots' asking prices firm at $310, that lower bid hasn't gotten packers anywhere. And with boxed beef prices higher and the board lending the complex technical support as well -- it's likely that Northern feedlot managers will see higher prices again this week if they wait patiently as packers didn't buy many cattle last week. December live cattle are up $0.20 at $192.97, February live cattle are up $0.07 at $190.17 and April live cattle are up $0.20 at $192.80.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.95 ($321.34) and select up $3.60 ($292.37) with a movement of 46 loads (24.60 loads of choice, 5.47 loads of select, 7.99 loads of trim and 7.90 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

As questioned yesterday when the market ran up to its long-term resistance at $260, the feeder cattle complex is trading steady/somewhat lower as Friday's noon hour approaches. It is supportive to see some light cash cattle trading at higher prices, but for traders to confidently conquer the resistance at $260, all hands on deck are going to be required to accomplish that feat. January feeders are up $0.65 at $259.95, March feeders are down $0.05 at $259.45 and April feeders are down $0.10 at $259.80.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is also trading higher as it's pleased to see pork cutout values higher yet again. February lean hogs are up $0.37 at $84.57, April lean hogs are up $0.52 at $89.77 and June lean hogs are up $0.57 at $102.12. The morning cutout report is slightly skewed by the belly's $8.38 jump, but the ham also had a nice $5.58 jump both of which helped offset the $6.05 decline in the picnic. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 932 head have traded, and the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $79.10. Pork cutouts total 119.45 loads with 101.24 loads of pork cuts and 18.21 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.56, $97.25.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Expected to Trade Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Demand remains strong with boxed beef prices increasing significantly after Christmas. Choice jumped $4.41 with select up $2.20. Some cattle traded in Kansas and Texas at $190 likely setting the stage for steady to higher cash on Friday. The packers will be reluctant but will need to pay more to obtain the cattle they need even for the holiday-shortened week. Feeder cattle led the charge with contracts nearing recent highs. Current demand and current supplies should support the market for the foreseeable future. Fund traders may add more long positions on the idea demand will remain strong. High beef prices do not seem to be having much impact on demand. Prices will need to increase further before demand may slow. There has been no indication when the border may open for cattle from Mexico to move into the U.S. again.

Hog futures struggled much of the day but found some strength as cutouts were higher due to good demand. Pork cutouts gained $1.07 with most categories showing higher prices. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $0.48 with the packers holding back on bids. With the shorter upcoming holiday week, the packers may be more aggressive today as they will purchase sufficient hogs to position themselves with supply for next week. The upside price potential may be limited unless demand increases early next year.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The large increase in cattle futures reversed the downtrend that had developed. The funds are defending their long positions as they remain bullish on the market.	1)	Feeder cattle futures are close to strong technical price resistance which traders may see as a level to liquidate.
2)	Steady to higher prices for cash cattle this week indicates demand is strong and the packers need to remain aggressive with purchases. Feedlots see this and will hold for higher prices.	2)	Exports may remain slow due to the high beef prices. This and heavy cattle weights should keep the beef supply sufficient and limit upside potential.
3)	Hog futures have established a sideways pattern and seem to maintain and build support. This may provide traders with confidence to establish long positions.	3)	Weekly hog weights increased by 0.2 pounds averaging 289.7 pounds. This is 0.4 pounds above a year ago.
4)	Demand is holding and hog slaughter should remain at a strong pace. High beef prices may result in greater demand for pork.	4)	The packers will need fewer hogs as next week is another holiday-shortened week. They may not be aggressive in the cash market.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Feeder Cattle Close $3.00 to $4.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex was met with tremendous trade support following Christmas day as traders were pleased to see stronger boxed and pork cutout values. No significant trade volumes accumulated throughout the day in the fed cash cattle market -- but it is assumed that prices will again be higher this week when trade does finally break loose. March corn is up 5 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $13.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 28.77 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a rallying day for the live cattle complex as the market was given plenty of reasons to trade higher following the Christmas holiday. First of all, the jump in boxed beef prices was a delight for traders to note as demand continues to be a relentless factor in the market's rallying momentum. Secondly, it was also helpful that traders jumped on board with the notion of moving the contracts higher, but the feeder cattle market did set the tone as its contracts closed anywhere from $3.00 to $4.00 higher. And last but certainly not least, the belief that cash cattle prices will trade higher again this week is helpful as well. Bids of $190 live and $305 dressed were offered throughout the day in Nebraska, but no significant volumes traded throughout the day. Asking prices remain firm at $192 to $193 in the South and $310 in the North. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 119,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $4.41 ($320.39) and select up $2.02 ($288.77) with a movement of 186 loads (94.22 loads of choice, 36.88 loads of select, 25.01 loads of trim and 30.11 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. With the board's support, the fed cash cattle market should have no trouble trading higher again this week as feedlot managers are current and have plenty of leverage favoring their position.

FEEDER CATTLE:

In the marketplace there are good days, bad days, lackluster days, and there are also days like today that were utter dynamite for the complex. The feeder cattle market was once again the rallying force for the cattle sector as it helped propel its contracts $3.00 to $4.00 higher but also encouraged the live cattle market to trade higher too. And while we still sit in the "in-between time" in terms of the Christmas and New Year holidays, it's hard to say that the market's move was unjustified when the market's fundamentals are as strong as they are. It will be interesting to see in the days ahead how the complex handles the long-term resistance at $260 as the nearby contracts are trading at that threshold. January feeders closed $3.45 higher at $259.30, March feeders closed $4.50 higher at $259.50 and April feeders closed $4.17 higher at $260.02. The CME feeder cattle index 12/25/2024: down $2.28, $260.77.

LEAN HOGS:

With the added support of stronger pork cutout values -- thanks to significant retail buying following the Christmas holiday -- the lean hog complex was able to close steady to somewhat higher in most of the market's nearby contracts. February lean hogs closed $0.17 lower at $84.20, April lean hogs closed $0.07 higher at $89.25 and June lean hogs closed $0.30 higher at $101.55. In terms of individual pork cutouts there wasn't one cut that rallied notably more than any of the rest, but instead, today's cuts were a stable blend of mostly higher gains. But what was most significant in terms of the cutout report was seeing a whopping 528.77 loads moved -- which is somewhat expected after a holiday but is also a good sign of demand as well. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.48 with a weighted average price of $79.08 on 4,630 head. Pork cutouts totaled 528.77 loads with 480.12 loads of pork cuts and 48.65 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.07, $95.69. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head -- 3,000 head more than a week and a year ago. CME lean hog index 12/20/2024: up $0.40, $84.75.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. It's likely that packers have already fulfilled the vast majority of their needs for the week.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Prices Jump Higher After the Christmas Holiday

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mostly higher into Thursday's noon hour as retailers are refilling their coolers after the holiday rush which has consequently pushed both pork cutout values and boxed beef prices higher. Bids of $190 live and $305 dressed have surfaced in Nebraska. March corn is up 3 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $11.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 29.02 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Christmas thankfully put a little cheer back into the live cattle complex as the market is confidently trading back above its 40-day moving average in the spot February contract, and it's likely that fed cash cattle will trade for higher money again this week. December live cattle are up $1.55 at $192.35, February live cattle are up $2.17 at $189.55 and April live cattle are up $2.30 at $191.85. If the market can sustain this momentum through the day's end and close above the 40-day moving average, it signs trader optimism and could help the market turn its direction back higher again. Some action has started to develop in the cash cattle market as bids have surfaced in Nebraska $190 and $305 dressed. Asking prices are firm at $192 to $193 live in the South and $310 dressed in the North. Packer interest could improve throughout the day but it's likely that trade could be delayed at this point until Friday.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $3.84 ($319.82) and select up $0.98 ($287.73) with a movement of 145 loads (66.62 loads of choice, 30.61 loads of select, 20.89 loads of trim and 26.56 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Talk about a wild way to come back from the Christmas holiday break! The feeder cattle complex isn't being shy about its momentum as it's pushing a bolstering $3.00 to $4.00 rally and is again close to resistance levels at $260 in the spot January contract. I'm skeptical of whether the market will be able to surpass the market's resistance given that it's not an ideal time to take on such market opposition. With the New Year's holiday just around the corner, the market doesn't fully shake the holiday fog until after the New Year. At which point everyone is fully back to work and ready to do business. From a fundamental sense, the market is prime to take on such a challenge, but again, I don't know if there's enough weight behind the market's momentum currently. January feeders are up $3.55 at $259.37, March feeders are up $4.15 at $259.15 and April feeders are up $3.80 at $259.65.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mostly higher as the market is thrilled to see a little better support in stronger pork cutout values. February lean hogs are down $0.02 at $84.35, April lean hogs are up $0.02 at $89.20 and June lean hogs are up $0.25 at $101.50. Thankfully the rib's $3.78 jump along with both the ham's $2.87 jump and the loin's $2.77 gain are off-setting the belly's $2.65 decline.

The projected lean hog index is delayed from the source. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of submission issues. Pork cutouts total 410.96 loads with 374.26 loads of pork cuts and 36.70 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.31, $95.93.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Early Trading Activity Expected To Be Light

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle trade is expected today but it is uncertain what prices will do. The USDA did not release any reports on Tuesday keeping traders guessing what boxed beef prices did. The hope is that cash cattle will trade no worse than steady this week. However, the packers had purchased a significant amount of cattle ahead possibly leaving them in the position to hold the line on prices or even maintain lower bids due to next week also being a holiday week. It may be up to feedlots if they want to hold cattle over or move some even if it means steady to lower prices. Feeder cattle futures fell back hovering near the lows of the range and possibly testing support.

Hogs were mixed on Tuesday and much the same is expected today. Traders did not have the cash or cutout reports to provide direction. The expectation is for cash to be lower today but that will depend on whether the packers may want to position themselves ahead of another holiday-shortened week. Futures are expected to remain sideways possibly through the end of the year as holiday demand is assessed.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	If cash cattle trade higher this week, futures may move back toward the highs over time.	1)	Cattle futures may drift sideways through the rest of the year with traders unwilling to establish long-term positions.
2)	Beef demand is expected to remain strong through the end of the year. Cattle supplies continue to remain tight.	2)	It is uncertain when the border will be reopened to cattle imports from Mexico. That would put initial pressure on the market as traders react to the news.
3)	The Hog and Pigs report has been digested and traders have adjusted to the numbers. This may provide confidence to buy into the market.	3)	Hogs need to continue to see strong demand or futures will break below technical support as further liquidation could take place.
4)	The Packers may be aggressive today as they may purchase hogs ahaed for another holiday-shortened week. Demand may be better than expected.	4)	Cash hogs may trade lower today as the packers may have much of the purchased finished for the week.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Dabble in Complex Vaguely

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex puttered through Tuesday's early close as traders paid the market little attention throughout the day. A single bid of $190 was offered in Kansas, but no cattle have sold just yet. March corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is up $3.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 390.08 points.

USDA is not updating its pages today (December 24) or on Christmas Day (December 25). The markets will also be closed on December 25, so regular DTN market commentary will resume on Thursday, December 26. Merry Christmas friends!

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex closed mostly higher as traders hope that the market's fundamentals will prevail after the Christmas holiday especially in the cash market. December live cattle closed $0.17 lower at $190.80, February live cattle closed $0.17 higher at $187.37 and April live cattle closed $0.02 higher at $189.55. A single bid of $190 was offered throughout the day in Kansas but given that that price is below last week's weighted average, it's unlikely that any cattle get bought at that price. Feedlot managers have their eyes set on higher prices again this week. Asking prices are noted in the South at $192 and remain unestablished still in the North.

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Given that packers didn't get very many cattle bought last week it's likely that they'll have to participate in this week's cash market more than they'd like.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex rounded out the day fully lower as trader interest remained nearly nonexistent throughout Christmas Eve. January feeders closed $0.37 lower at $255.85, March feeders closed $0.67 lower at $255.00 and April feeders closed $0.70 lower at $256.07. As I mentioned earlier, it's unlikely that the feeder cattle contracts will do much besides trade sideways until after the New Year holiday when regular feeder cattle sales resume in the countryside and buyers will likely be eager to fill their new orders.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex rounded out the Christmas Eve Day mixed as the markets nearby contracts closed slightly lower while the deferred months maintained their higher position. February lean hogs closed $0.05 lower at $84.37, April lean hogs closed $0.57 lower at $89.17 and June lean hogs closed $0.17 lower at $101.25. The market continues to hope that its fundamentals will improve as consumer demand hasn't been reliable as of late.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers already bought 6,000 head in the cash market on Monday it's likely that they'll thinly participate in the market throughout the remainder of the week.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Complex Trades Mixed Ahead of Christmas

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's a quiet marketplace today as most market participants have already closed their books and shut their computers to enjoy some Christmas cheer. The markets will be closing early today (1:05 pm EST) so DTN's closing market commentary will be available earlier today as well. March corn is up 1/4 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is up $3.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 290.68 points.

USDA is not updating its pages today (December 24) or on Christmas Day (December 25). The markets will also be closed on December 25, so regular DTN market commentary will resume on Thursday, December 26. Merry Christmas friends!

LIVE CATTLE:

Although the market is trading in its typical, half-hearted Christmas Eve fashion as most traders have already checked out to enjoy the Christman festivities most of the live cattle contracts are trading higher. December live cattle are down $0.07 at $190.90, February live cattle are up $0.15 at $187.60 and April live cattle are steady at $189.70. The market continues to dance around the 40-day moving average as that's been a threshold in which it's struggled to reconquer following last week's lower ascend. And while the contracts are trading slightly higher at Tuesday's noon hour, it's unlikely that there will be enough gusto back today's movement to take on that threshold. But if the cash cattle market is able to trade higher later this week, then it could be a possibility. Asking prices are noted in the South at $192 but are still not established in the North. There's a bid currently being offered in Kansas at $190, but it's unlikely that anything gets traded at that price and before the Christmas holiday.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is trading mostly lower as the market's momentum from Monday's higher close has puttered out. January feeders are down $0.17 at $256.42, March feeders are down $0.42 at $255.57 and April feeders are down $0.32 at $256.45. More than anything it's likely that the feeder cattle complex chops sideways until after the New Year when feeder cattle sales resume and prices could likely be higher in the countryside as buyers will be anxious to fill their new orders after the long holiday break.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is trading mostly lower as it too suffers from light-hearted interest from traders today. February lean hogs are up $0.25 at $84.62, April lean hogs are down $0.42 at $89.20 and June lean hogs are down $0.10 at $101.20. Following yesterday's mixed Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, the lean hog complex could likely see little trader interest throughout the rest of the week as their big-ticket item for the week has already been unveiled and packers were fairly aggressive in Monday's cash market as they bought just over 6,000 head.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders' Interest Is Expected to Be Limited

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Live cattle futures chopped around spending little time in positive territory in general. The Cattle of Feed report was digested and provided little direction for traders. Cash likely will not trade until later in the week and may be lighter than usual due to the holidays. It is uncertain how aggressive the packers will be due to having purchased cattle for deferred delivery last week. They could try to do the same this week to better position themselves. Boxed beef prices were higher with choice up $0.13 and select up $0.84. January feeder cattle showed significant strength on Monday as it was the contract that traders were able to push to take advantage of the movement to scalp a quick profit. It is a shorter trading day today with the markets closing at 12:05 Central time.

Traders seemed to position themselves ahead of the Hogs and Pigs report by spreading or liquidating to limit risk. The report did not show anything significant and is neutral to slightly bearish. All hogs and pigs on December 1 were 101%, kept for breeding was 100% and kept for marketing was 101%. All hogs and pigs kept for marketing categories were 1% higher than expectations. The Sep-Nov pig crop was 1.5% higher totaling 35.238 million head and a record number for this quarter. Pigs per litter were 1.4% higher than expected. The rest of the categories were close to expectations. The packers were aggressive in the cash market with the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showing a gain of $2.61. Pork cutouts did not fare well declining $2.66. The packers may not be very aggressive today as it is a shorter trading day and Christmas Eve and most may not be willing to do business.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Live cattle futures are holding support and are trading in a sideways pattern. Traders may be willing buyers at technical support levels.	1)	The packers had been able to purchase cattle for deferred delivery last week which may limit their need to be aggressive this week or they may be able to further increase ownership to position themselves better for the following week.
2)	Cash cattle trade is not expected until later in the week but the expectation is for cash to be no less than steady with last week.	2)	Light trading activity may result in cattle futures drifting lower as no usual government reports will be available.
3)	The recent decline of hog futures and the weakness on Monday may have the bearish aspect of the Hogs and Pigs report factored in. The break might be viewed as a buying opportunity.	3)	Trading activity in hog futures may be light allowing some of the bearish aspects fo the report to influence the market resulting in lower prices.
4)	The packers will need hogs this week and are expected to be aggressive after Christmas. This should provide support to the market.	4)	Without some of the usual government reports today, many traders may opt to stay out of the market if they do not see any significant reaction to the report. That generally results in price weakness.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Feeder Cattle Market Powers On

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Besides the feeder cattle market's decision to power through the day despite it being a Monday on a holiday-shortened week, both the live cattle and lean hog markets closed lower. The markets will be open tomorrow until 1:05 pm Eastern, so DTN will provide regular commentary, but no USDA reports will be available. March corn is up 1 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $4.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 66.69 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex rounded out the day mixed as traders were skeptical of overly supporting the market following last week's trend of a lower decline. December live cattle closed $0.35 lower at $190.97, February live cattle closed $0.95 lower at $187.45 and April live cattle closed $0.42 lower at $189.70. Unfortunately, today's lackluster mindset kept the spot February contract below its 40-day moving average as the market didn't feel empowered enough to climb above that threshold at this point. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day and trade is likely delayed until after Christmas. New showlists for the week are lighter in Texas and Kansas, but slightly higher in Nebraska and Colorado. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head -- steady with a week ago and incomparable to a year ago.

Last week Northern dressed cattle sold in a wide range from $302 to $315, but most of the transactions happened at $305, which is $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded at mostly $191, which is fully steady with the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 49,864 head. Of that, 61% (30,544 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 39% (19,320 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.13 ($315.98) and select up $0.84 ($286.75) with a movement of 114 loads (66.33 loads of choice, 20.60 loads of select, 13.50 loads of trim and 13.97 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Even though it's a holiday week, with packers only buying 49,000 head in last week's market it's likely that they'll have to be active participants again in this week's market in order to avoid being short bought.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Although the live cattle complex was sheepish throughout the day, the feeder cattle contracts powered through Monday's market and successfully rounded out the day higher. January feeders closed $1.00 higher at $256.60, March feeders closed $0.17 higher at $256.00 and April feeders closed $0.02 higher at $256.77. Traders likely viewed the lighter placements on Friday's Cattle on Feed report as a bullish factor which helped move the market higher throughout Monday's trade. Most sale barns are closed until after the New Year holiday. The CME feeder cattle index 12/20/2024: up $0.85, $263.00.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex again fell lower as trader support simply wasn't available in today's market. February lean hogs closed $1.55 lower at $84.37, April lean hogs closed $0.90 lower at $89.62 and June lean hogs closed $0.80 lower at $101.30. It was surprising to see packers buying as aggressively as they did in today's cash market as they purchased right over 6,000 head. But pork cutout values dipped lower as the bell along fell $9.35 and the rib closed $4.44 lower. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $2.61 with a weighted average price of $79.56 on 6,262 head. Pork cutouts totaled 301.50 loads with 264.25 loads of pork cuts and 37.25 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.66, $94.62. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and incomparable to a year ago. The CME lean hog index 12/19/2024: up $0.14, $84.35.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that it will be Christmas Eve, it's likely that packers won't be very aggressive in Tuesday's cash hog market.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Mixed Tones Summarize the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed into Monday's noon hour as the market simply isn't seeing much trader participation besides in the feeder cattle market. It's likely that this whole week the market will trade halfheartedly as everyone steps away to enjoy Christmas. March corn is up 1 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is down $2.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 114.75 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading mostly lower, although a couple of the late summer/early fall months of 2025 are trading slightly higher. More than anything, Monday's sluggish tone in the complex seems to be stemming simply from the fact that it's a holiday week, and that the market isn't going to get much participation from anyone. December live cattle are down $0.42 at $190.90, February live cattle are down $0.95 at $187.45 and April live cattle are down $0.55 at $189.57. New showlists for the week are lighter in Texas and Kansas, but slightly higher in Nebraska and Colorado.

Last week Northern dressed cattle sold in a wide range from $302 to $315, but most of the transactions happened at $305, which is $2.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded at mostly $191, which is fully steady with the previous week's weighted average.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.80 ($315.05) and select up $1.92 ($287.83) with a movement of 32 loads (16.48 loads of choice, 7.66 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 7.53 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is trading mixed as the market would like to recover some of the position lost last week, but without the full support of the live cattle complex, the market is remaining cautious. January feeders are up $1.05 at $256.65, March feeders are up $0.22 at $256.05 and April feeders are up $0.07 at $256.82. Some of the feeder cattle market's support could be stemming from the fact that Friday's Cattle on Feed Report showed that placements were lighter than a year ago.

LEAN HOGS:

It's another grim, lethargically day for the lean hog complex as the market isn't seeing much develop in terms of fundamental support or trader interest. Later Monday afternoon, the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report will be released which could slightly affect the market's behavior on Tuesday, but with it being the week of Christmas, not much is expected to surface in the marketplace this week. February lean hogs are down $2.07 at $83.85, April lean hogs are down $1.57 at $88.97 and June lean hogs are down $1.22 at $100.87.

The projected lean hog index for 12/20/2024 is up $0.40 at $84.75, and the actual index for 12/19/2024 is up $0.14 at $84.35. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 282 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $78.84. Pork cutouts total 166.06 loads with 148.03 loads of pork cuts and 18.03 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $3.56, $93.72.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Hog Traders to Position For the Hogs & Pigs Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle traded steady for Southern live cattle and $2.00 higher for Northern dressed cattle for the week. That provided the confidence for traders to buy futures more aggressively. They also had positioned themselves ahead of the Cattle on Feed report as the liquidation subsided. The Cattle on Feed report was about as neutral as a report could be. On feed on December 1 was 100% compared to the average guess of 99.9%. Placements in November were 96% compared to the estimate of 95.9%. Marketed in November was 99% compared to the estimate of 98.2%. This is the first time in quite a while that the placement number was very close to the estimate. That category has been difficult to guess for quite some time. This is a holiday-shortened week with fewer cattle needed for slaughter leaving the potential for steady trade. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice down $4.84 and select up $1.80. The Commitment of Traders report showed funds adding 7,451 contracts in live cattle increasing their net long position to 136,213 futures contracts. They added 794 long futures to feeder cattle increasing their net long position to 19,116 contracts.

Hog futures were able to post strong gains with The Frebruarty contract heading the charge and moving to the highest close since December 9. Traders seemed to view the price decline over the past month as a buying opportunity despite the Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report to be released today. The trading activity is expected to be subdued today as traders position ahead of the report. The average estimate for all hogs and pigs on December 1 is 100.0%. Hogs kept for breeding at 100.0%. Hogs kept for marketing at 99.9%. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $2.50 on Friday. There is little expectation for stronger cash today. Cutout values increased $1.13. The Commitment of Traders report showed fund traders reducing their long positions by 17,107 contracts with their current net long position at 118,899.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Steady to higher cash cattle last week and expectations for steady cash this week should support the market.	1)	The packers may not be very aggressive this holiday week as they may have a significant amount of cattle purchased ahead. Prices could drift lower.
2)	The Cattle on Feed report was neutral leaving the potential for traders to feel more comfortable adding to their long positions.	2)	There is concern the demand for beef could slow resulting in lower slaughter. Feedlots may not receive higher prices by holding out for higher cash.
3)	The Hogs & Pigs report may show some adjustments relative to the previous report which may show the supply of hogs may be less than reported.	3)	The upcoming Hogs & Pigs report could result in traders positioning ahead of the report by liquidating some of their long positions.
4)	Traders were confident buying more aggressively on Friday ahead of the report due to the confidence demand will remain strong.	4)	Reduced hog slaughter during the holiday may leave the packers less aggressive. There is little strength expected in the cash market.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Keep the Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a successful day for the livestock contracts as all three of the markets closed higher by Friday's ending bell. And to help matters even more, it was reassuring for cattlemen to find the afternoon's Cattle on Feed report neutral to somewhat bullish. March corn is up 5 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $11.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 498.02 points.

From Friday to Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: December live cattle down $2.32, February live cattle down $3.63; January feeder cattle down $2.05, March feeder cattle down $1.85; February lean hogs up $0.33, April lean hogs up $0.78; March corn up $0.04, May corn up $0.03.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was relieving to see the live cattle contracts close higher as the market has been pressured throughout the vast majority of the week. And it was especially comforting to see the spot February contract close above the market's 40-day moving average as that hopefully indicates that the market won't be subject to more dramatic downward pressure in the days ahead. December live cattle closed $0.97 higher at $191.32, February live cattle closed $1.85 higher at $188.40 and April live cattle closed $1.52 higher at $190.12. No new cash cattle trade developed throughout the day as most of the week's buying was done on Thursday. This week Northern dressed business has had a huge range of $302 to $315, but mostly at $305, $2 higher than last week's weighted average basis Nebraska. While Southern live deals have been marked at $191, fully steady with last week's weighted averages.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 117,000 head -- 2,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 15,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 617,000 head -- 8,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $4.84 ($315.85) and select up $1.80 ($285.91) with a movement of 107 loads (65.70 loads of choice, 19.22 loads of select, 9.05 loads of trim and 12.62 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Even though next week is a holiday shorted week for Christmas, packers will still need to stay active in the market to avoid becoming short bought.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex was able to maintain its higher position through the day's end as the market found it comforting that the live cattle contracts closed higher and that the week's fed cash cattle market traded steady to $2.00 higher as well. Then, later in the afternoon, it was also supportive that the month's Cattle on Feed (COF) report had no alarming discrepancies compared to the pre-report estimates. 

January feeders closed $1.12 higher at $255.60, March feeders closed $1.25 higher at $255.82 and April feeders closed $1.30 higher at $256.75. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week and throughout the entire state, feeder steers and heifers traded $3.00 to $8.00 lower and steer and heifer calves sold $7.00 to $12.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 45%. The CME feeder cattle index 12/19/2024: down $0.08, $262.15.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was able to power through the day, rallying off the market's newly established support plane earlier this week. February lean hogs closed $2.30 higher at $85.92, April lean hogs closed $1.90 higher at $90.52 and June lean hogs closed $1.30 higher at $102.10. It was also encouraging to see pork cutout values close higher, but the belly played a significant role in that as it alone jumped $13.51 higher and the rib also climbed $3.95 higher. Monday will be a big day for the lean hog complex as the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report is set to be released. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.50 with a weighted average price of $76.95 on 299 head. Pork cutouts totaled 239.15 loads with 204.89 loads of pork cuts and 34.25 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.13, $97.28. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 483,000 head -- 9,000 head more than a week ago and 56,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 148,000 head. The CME lean hog index 12/18/2024: up $0.05, $84.21.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that it's a holiday shorted week packers won't likely buy much in next week's market.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Stronger Tones Sweep the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's been a refreshing day in the livestock complex as all three of the markets are trading higher into Friday's noon hour. This afternoon the industry will be closely watching to see what comes of the Cattle on Feed report and if any more cash cattle trade does indeed develop. March corn is up 5 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $8.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 799.65 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Following Thursday's slight derailment in terms of the live cattle contracts' performance, it's refreshing to see the contracts again trading higher on Friday. After plummeting to a level that the spot February contract swooped below the market's 40-day moving average, the additional fundamental support of the cash cattle market's trade seems to set well with the market. I'm hopeful that traders deem the futures market's correction this past week sufficient and that no more immediate downside pressure will surface in the complex again soon. But I know that with their decision to push the contracts lower, all having been for technical reasons, unfortunately, we can't put too much confidence in what the market's fundamentals accomplish. Some more cash cattle trade could develop after the Cattle on Feed report is released, but at this point, the market sits idle with only one bid in Kansas at $191 being shown. This week Northern dressed business has had a range of $303 to $308, mostly $305, $2 higher than last week's weighted average basis Nebraska. Southern live deals have been marked at $191, fully steady with last week's weighted averages. Note that Texas has been very quiet with no to little sales reported.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $4.42 ($316.27) and select down $0.55 ($283.56) with a movement of 75 loads (49.08 loads of choice, 12.80 loads of select, 7.33 loads of trim and 5.50 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is also trading higher into Friday's noon hour as the market has seemed to have found some technical stability following Thursday's lower close, and it's also helpful that the fed cash cattle market traded cattle steady to $2.00 higher on Thursday as well. January feeders are up $1.07 at $255.55, March feeders are up $1.35 at $255.92 and April feeders are up $1.27 at $256.72. So long as the live cattle contracts continue to trade in a higher direction, it's likely that the feeder cattle contracts will also be able to round out the week on a stronger note as well.

LEAN HOGS:

Could it be that after some strenuous pressure early this week, the lean hog complex has regained some technical footing in the marketplace? If Friday's direction and technical momentum have anything to do with it – I'd say the answer is yes as today's higher move solely stems from trader objectivity as the market's fundamentals aren't lending support. Please note that on Monday, December 23rd the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report will be released. February lean hogs are up $1.52 at $85.15, April lean hogs are up $1.35 at $89.97 and June lean hogs are up $1.02 at $101.82.

The projected lean hog index for 12/19/2024 is up $0.14 at $84.35, and the actual index for 12/18/2024 is up $0.05 at $84.21. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 345 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $78.99. Pork cutouts total 183.59 loads with 166.55 loads of pork cuts and 17.04 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.38, $95.97.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Look Ahead to the Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It has not been a good week for cattle with futures declining each day to close at the lowest level since December 9^th. The February contract fell $5.47 over the past four days. This may have established a top at which it will be difficult to regain. However, cash cattle traded steady in the South and $2.00 higher in the North. This may provide support for today's trade. Although the Cattle on Feed report will be released this afternoon, The selling may have been overdone and futures may bounce. The average estimates for the Cattle on Feed report are for on feed as of December 1 at 99.9% of a year ago with the range of estimates for 99.4% to 100.3%. Placements in November at 95.9% with a range of 92.6% to 98.9% and marketed in November at 98.2% with a range of 97.7% to 98.7%. Boxed beef prices were mixed with choice up $5.05 and select down $1.44.

Hog futures traded in a tight range of about $1.00 as uncertainly clouded the market. There is uncertainty about demand in early 2025 and uncertainty over the upcoming Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report to be released on Monday. Today's trading may be confined to positioning ahead of the report. The National Daily Direct Aternoon Hog report showed cash up $1.42 as the packers wanted to finish their weekly purchases. This may leave them less aggressive today as buying is likely finished for the week. The weakness of cutouts may keep a little pressure on the market. Slaughter remains strong as the current demand is holding and hogs need to be processed. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 145,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures may be overdone to the downside and may bounce today due to cash cattle trading steady to $2.00 higher.	1)	February feeder cattle futures fell and closed below technical support which could result in further selling pressure to develop.
2)	Technical selling has taken place over the past four days and should have run its course. Traders may have finished positioning themselves ahead of the Cattle on Feed report which may allow futures to bounce.	2)	The recent weakness in cattle futures may be difficult to overcome as export demand has slowed and domestic demand may hold steady at best.
3)	The packers were aggressive buyers in the cash market Thursday indicating continued strong demand for pork.	3)	The recent trend has been down and may continue that way. Each time the market shows strength the level it reaches is lower than the previous rebound.
4)	Hog futures may build support as the market has traded sideways to higher. Nearby contracts have remained sideway with later contracts showing better strength. The Hogs & Pigs report could reflect tighter supplies.	4)	Cash hogs are expected to trade lower today with the packers likely less aggressive next week as they may already have most of their needs covered.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Trade Steady to $2.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a lousy day throughout the futures complex for the livestock contracts, but the fed cash cattle market did manage to trade cattle for steady to $2.00 higher. Please note that on Friday afternoon, the monthly Cattle on Feed report is set to be released. March corn is up 3 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $4.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 32.38 points.

Thursday's export data showed that beef net sales of 7,200 mt for 2024 were down 35% from the previous week and 5% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were South Korea (2,200 mt), Japan (1,200 mt) and Taiwan (800 mt). Pork net sales of 11,200 mt for 2024 were down 50% from the previous week and 52% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (2,800 mt), Japan (2,300 mt) and Canada (2,100 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a disappointing day for the live cattle complex in terms of the futures market, but the fed cash cattle market traded positively. Once again, Thursday's lower ascend in the live cattle contracts was all based on technical pressure as traders are anxious about the market's position, and some traders have elected to capitalize on the market's position in terms of profit taking from a money managed funds position. What was disgruntling to see is that the spot February contract closed below its 40-day moving average, which means that the market could face some more technical pressure in the days to come -- regardless of whatever the market's fundamentals do. December live cattle closed $0.95 lower at $190.35, February live cattle closed $1.77 lower at $186.55 and April live cattle closed $1.87 lower at $188.60. Throughout the day there was a light movement of cattle sold, but largely the market hasn't seen many cattle traded yet this week. Dressed deals are being marked at $305, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and live cattle are selling for $191 which is fully steady with last week's weighted average. Some asking prices remain firm, around $193 to $195 in the South and around $307 plus in the North. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head -- 4,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $5.85 ($320.69) select down $1.44 ($284.11) with a movement of 98 loads (62.31 loads of choice, 18.75 loads of select, 7.42 loads of trim and 9.34 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Friday's trade will largely boil down to asking: How short bought are packers? If they are close to the knife and desperately in need of cattle, prices will likely trade higher, but if they're flush with their needs for next week given that it's a holiday shortened week, prices will likely remain steady with the week's trend.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was a dreary day for the feeder cattle complex as the market drifted lower all throughout Thursday's trade as technical pressure has been burdensome this week. January feeders closed $2.52 lower at $254.47, March feeders closed $2.80 lower at $254.57 and April feeders closed $2.95 lower at $255.45. Although the fed cash cattle market saw a slight uptick in prices in the few head of cattle that sold late Wednesday afternoon and throughout Thursday's trade, the slight help from the market's fundamentals wasn't enough to reassure traders and ease their anxiousness.

At Winter Livestock Auction in Dodge City, Kansas, compared to last week feeder steers and heifers over 600 pounds traded steady, but heifers under 600 pounds sold steady to $15.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 62%. The CME feeder cattle index 12/18/2024: down $0.77, $262.23.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was trading higher ahead of Thursday's noon hour, but as the afternoon grew closer and closer to the day's end, the market followed in the cattle complex's trail and also ended the day weaker. February lean hogs closed $0.07 lower at $83.62, April lean hogs closed $0.27 lower at $88.62 and June lean hogs closed $0.05 higher at $100.80. And although both the cash market and cutout values did close slightly higher, the market's overall unsettledness seemed to be the louder voice that traders paid attention to ahead of the day's close. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.42 with a weighted average price of $79.45. Pork cutouts totaled 269.83 loads with 217.20 loads of pork cuts and 52.63 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.20, $96.15. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 487,000 head -- 15,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 12/17/2024: up $0.18, $84.16.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point it's likely that packers have fulfilled the majority of their needs for this week and won't pay much attention to the cash hog market on Friday.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Bids Have Surfaced for the Fed Cash Cattle Market

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is again trading mixed as traders continue to push the cattle contracts lower, but the hog complex is trading slightly higher. Bids have surfaced in the cattle complex, but no new trade has developed. March corn is up 2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $4.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 203.44 points.

Thursday's export data showed that beef net sales of 7,200 mt for 2024 were down 35% from the previous week and 5% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were South Korea (2,200 mt), Japan (1,200 mt) and Taiwan (800 mt). Pork net sales of 11,200 mt for 2024 were down 50% from the previous week and 52% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Mexico (2,800 mt), Japan (2,300 mt) and Canada (2,100 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is trading lower as the market continues to flounder lower and lower. It's been nerve racking to watch the spot February contract dip below the market's 40-day moving average as traders are seeming to throw in the towel, and scramble as they're being pressured by profiting taking from money managed funds. They won't likely find secure and stable confidence in the market's fundamentals this week as the week's lower dive is being technically driven. There were a few sales marked in the North Wednesday at $305, which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Bids are currently on the table in both regions where live cattle bids are sitting at mostly $191 in the South and $305 dressed in the North. Asking prices for cattle remain firm at $193 to $195 live in the South and $307 plus in the North.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $6.80 ($321.64) and select up $1.84 ($283.71) with a movement of 55 loads (25.78 loads of choice, 14.14 loads of select, 7.42 loads of trim and 7.54 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

It's been another strenuous and stressful day for the feeder cattle complex as the market continues to plunder lower. Thus far, the live cattle complex hasn't been of any support as it's also trading higher, and although there are bids currently being offered in the fed cash cattle market -- no new trade has developed Thursday. The market is currently remaining above its support plan at $255, which will be a key threshold to monitor through the day's end. January feeders are down $2.10 at $254.90, March feeders are down $2.35 at $255.02 and April feeders are down $2.57 at $255.82.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is back to trading higher as the market has seemed to find some technical footing at Wednesday's close. The day's higher trend isn't being fueled by fundamental support, however as pork cutout values are down, the day's export sales report was lousy, and there weren't enough cash hogs traded Thursday morning to even be reported publicly. February lean hogs are up $0.30 at $84.02, April lean hogs are up $0.27 at $89.17 and June lean hogs are up $0.42 at $101.17.

The projected lean hog index for 12/18/2024 is up $0.05 at $84.21, and the actual index for 12/17/2024 is up $0.18 at $84.16. Hog prices are not available on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 345 head have traded Thursday morning and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $78.99. Pork cutouts total 183.59 loads with 166.55 loads of pork cuts and 17.94 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.38, $95.97.