GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as the lean hog market saw mixed interest from traders while the cattle contracts fell sharply lower. The cash cattle market still has seen trade develop as feedlots remain committed to trading cattle higher again this week. Hog prices are unavailable in the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report due to packer submission issues. May corn is down 7 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 137.66 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 11,200 metric tons (mt) for 2024, a marketing year low, were down 20% from the previous week and 19% from the prior four-week average. The three largest buyers were Taiwan (2,300 mt), Japan (2,300 mt) and Mexico (1,700 mt). Pork net sales of 24,900 mt for 2024 were down 32% from the previous week and 24% from the previous four-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (5,700 mt), South Korea (4,100 mt) and China (3,900 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
You could have written a country song about today's live cattle performance, something along the lines of "just a hangin', and a droppin' and a fallin'" as that's all the cattle market did throughout Thursday's trade.
On Wednesday afternoon, the live cattle complex shot higher and pressured the market's current resistance threshold, but trades weren't as bold in Thursday's market and the complex fell to the bottom side of its current trading range. With the week's slaughter being reduced and carcass weights higher again, the market desperately needed a strong shot of support from the cash market, but no substantial trade developed. There were some light (extremely light) sales reported in the North at $300 dressed, which is $6 higher than last week's weighted average, and live deals were marked at $188 to $190, which is $3 to $5 higher than last week's weighted average. However, given that these prices were only thinly tested, the market has yet to develop a true trend for the week. April live cattle closed $2.87 lower at $186.95, June live cattle closed $2.67 lower at $183.37 and August live cattle closed $2.27 lower at $182.10.
Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head -- steady from a week ago but 2,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: Choice up $0.96 ($310.78) and select up $0.65 ($301.69) with a movement of 106 loads (69.31 loads of choice, 16.44 loads of select, 8.55 loads of trim and 11.37 loads of ground beef).
FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Given that feedlots have held out this long to trade cattle, it's likely prices will indeed be higher this week.
FEEDER CATTLE:
It was a tough day for the feeder cattle complex as the market longed for support, but the well was dry for feeder's hopes in today's market. The complex saw prices drop anywhere from $2 to $4 lower, with the biggest declines being in the furthest deferred contracts. The spot April contract came close to trading below its 40-day moving average, but the market held slightly above that threshold before the day's end. More than anything, the feeder cattle market stalled out technically as the live cattle/cash cattle market didn't lend the support it dearly needed. The live cattle contracts closed lower and the cash cattle market has yet to trade.
March feeders closed $2.80 lower at $247.47, April feeders closed $4.67 lower at $251.17 and May feeders closed $3.77 lower at $254.82. At the Winter Livestock Auction in Pratt, Kansas, at their midsession point and compared to last week, there wasn't enough of a test on steers to develop an accurate trend, but feeder heifers weighing 800 to 975 pounds were trading mostly steady. Heifers weighing 700 and 800 pounds were selling steady to $3 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 97%. The CME feeder cattle index March 13: Up $0.27, $248.46.
LEAN HOGS:
It was a mixed day for the lean hog complex as the market ran with the cards dealt as best it could. For starters, the morning's export report was only lukewarm as hog enthusiasts would have loved for sales to be great, but by the day's end, they were encouraged to see the pork cutout carcass price close $1.29 higher. The futures market saw both higher and lower closes, although most of the nearby contracts closed just below steady.
April lean hogs closed $0.15 higher at $84.02, June lean hogs closed $0.30 lower at $101.42 and July lean hogs closed $0.22 lower at $103.50. Pork cutouts totaled 189.36 loads with 173.37 loads of pork cuts and 15.98 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: Up $1.29, $93.25. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 467,000 head -- 7,000 head less than a week ago and 11,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index March 12: Up $0.41, $82.02.
FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers rarely support the cash market aggressively enough on Fridays to advance prices unless they're extremely short-bought.
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