Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Futures Market Retreat

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Even though the cattle complex's rally fizzled out by the day's close, the market still performed exceptionally well throughout the week. This week Southern live cattle were marked anywhere from $195 to $197, which is $2.00 to $5.00 higher than a week ago, and Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $315 which is $8.00 higher than a week ago. March corn is down 8 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $11.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 339.86 points.

From Friday to Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: February live cattle up $3.40, April live cattle up $2.65; January feeder cattle up $3.45, March feeder cattle up $3.63; February lean hogs down $3.38, April lean hogs down $3.75; March corn down $0.03, May corn down $0.03.

Friday's export report shared that beef net sales of 1,400 mt for 2024 were up 29% from the previous week but down 71% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (1,300 mt), China (400 mt), and Italy (100 mt). Pork net sales of 7,500 mt for 2024 were up 6% from the previous week but down 60% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (8,500 mt), Japan (600 mt) and Dominican Republic (400 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The only contract that could close fully higher by Friday's end was the spot February contract, but that's not to belittle what the market accomplished throughout the week. Traders aggressively supported the live cattle contracts throughout the week, and thankfully their dedication and interest in the sector was complimented by the cash cattle market's higher trade late in the week. February live cattle closed $0.45 higher at $194.05, April live cattle closed $0.05 lower at $196.00 and June live cattle closed $0.67 lower at $190.67. Throughout the week dressed cattle sold for $315 which is $8.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and live cattle sold anywhere from $195 to $197, which is $2.00 to $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average. The dressed cattle sales of $315 are a new record for the fed cash cattle market, and so is the live price of $197. 

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head -- 2,000 head less than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 27,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 498,000 head -- 64,000 head more than a week ago and 44,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.76 ($325.24) and select up $2.49 ($296.72) with a movement of 149 loads (95.99 loads of choice, 15.58 loads of select, 20.07 loads of trim and 17.04 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady/somewhat higher. It's tough to say exactly what next week's market will do without knowing how many cattle packers got bought this past week. If they were about to buy up some supply, then they may be able to hold prices steady next week. But if they are still short bought, prices will trade higher.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex also walked its contracts backward ahead of Friday's close, but just like the live cattle complex, that's not to say that the market wasn't aggressive and well supported this past week as most of the nearby contracts scored new contract highs. January feeders closed $1.65 lower at $264.82, March feeders closed $2.02 lower at $264.17 and April feeders closed $2.12 lower at $264.40. At Mitchell Livestock Auction in Mitchell, South Dakota compared to their last sale two weeks ago, feeder steers under 700 pounds sold $10.00 to $15.00 higher, and there were instances where those cattle sold as much as $20.00 higher. Steers weighing over 700 pounds sold $5.00 to $10.00 higher. Heifers traded mostly $10.00 to $15.00 stronger with instances up to $20.00 higher. The sale report did note that the market was very active on the big feedyard bound cattle but was even more active on the lighter weight cattle as they are harder to come by at this point in time. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 88%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/2/2025: up $3.99, $265.76.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex kept with its lower trending tone through Friday's close as the market simply lacked adequate support. Traders were skeptical of supporting the complex throughout the week as demand has been lacking. And while today's midday and afternoon pork cutout reports did close higher, traders are going to need to see more long-term support before they'll feel reassured. February lean hogs closed $0.37 lower at $80.77, April lean hogs closed $0.77 lower at $85.77 and June lean hogs closed $0.92 lower at $98.50. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.49 with a weighted average price of $79.59 on 4,938 head. Pork cutouts totaled 333.99 loads with 294.68 loads of pork cuts and 39.31 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.22, $89.54. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 488,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 419,000 head. The CME lean hog index 12/31/2024: down $0.28, $83.99.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers rarely buy enough hogs on Monday to advance the market.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Update - Fed Cash Cattle Prices Reach $315 Dressed & $197 Live

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's been an eventful morning for the cattle complex as the fed cash cattle market is seeing prices develop substantially higher as dressed cattle have begun to be reported at $315 and Southern cattle are being reported at $197 -- both are new all-time market highs. March corn is down 9 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $12.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 241.83 points.

Friday's export report shared that beef net sales of 1,400 mt for 2024 were up 29% from the previous week but down 71% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (1,300 mt), China (400 mt), and Italy (100 mt). Pork net sales of 7,500 mt for 2024 were up 6% from the previous week but down 60% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (8,500 mt), Japan (600 mt) and Dominican Republic (400 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

As if the rally on Thursday wasn't enough, traders have once again plunged into the live cattle complex, guns-a-blazing, as they've pushed several of the nearby contracts to new contract highs. So what's the driving force behind this newfound momentum, you ask? I believe it's the sober realization that so long as demand remains as plentiful as it was in 2024, the cattle complex (aside from any black swan events) is almost guaranteed to have another fruitful year as supplies are thin. Feedlot managers/cow-calf producers aren't squandering their time to shine as they hold the lion's share of the market's leverage. February live cattle are up $2.10 at $195.70, April live cattle are up $1.40 at $197.45 and June live cattle are up $0.42 at $191.77. And if the board's excitement wasn't enough to put a little pep in your step – the cash cattle market's success this morning surely will as some light traded trade is being reported at $315 which is $8.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and some more Southern live cattle trade has developed now at $197 which is $4.00 to $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Depending on where the week's weighted average falls, it's likely that the prices of $197 live and $315 dressed set new records for the fed cash cattle market.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.46 ($324.94) and select up $1.83 ($296.06) with a movement of 84 loads (41.26 loads of choice, 12.96 loads of select, 18.34 loads of trim and 11.72 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the help of the live cattle complex trading higher and this week's fed cash cattle market trading higher as well -- the nearby feeder cattle contracts are continuing to rally into Friday's noon hour with ease. January feeders are up $0.87 at $267.33, March feeders are up $0.40 at $266.60 and April feeders are up $0.25 at $266.77. Aside from the January 2025 contract, most of the nearby feeder cattle contracts have scored new contract highs as traders continue to push the market higher thanks to the relentless support of traders and their belief that fundamental support through 2025 should keep the market strong and elevated.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex isn't seeing the same level of support that the cattle contracts are as its market is trading mostly lower. And while one would usually expect higher pork cutout values to lend some support -- the market is instead trading lower as traders yearn to not only see higher daily prices but also to see consistency which has been nearly unattainable for the market as of late. February lean hogs are up $0.22 at $81.35, April lean hogs are down $0.07 at $86.47 and June lean hogs are down $0.27 at $99.15.

The projected lean hog index for 1/2/2024 is down $0.87 at $83.12, and the actual index for 12/31/2024 is down $0.28 at $83.99. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $79.69, ranging from $77.00 to $81.00 on 4,033 head and a five-day rolling average of $79.65. Pork cutouts total 188.34 loads with 169.64 loads of pork cuts and 18.70 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.23, $91.55.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Feedlots Hold For Higher Prices

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle were expected to trade higher Thursday, but when they did traders became aggressive buyers. The February contract pushed through technical resistance while later contracts made new highs. Feeder cattle followed suit but led the way with greater gains. Southern lived cattle sales were $2.00 to $3.00 higher. There is potential for Northern dressed sales to see even greater gains. Futures are adjusting higher to remain in line with cash. This buying interest is likely to have managed money traders holding a record-long position. Boxed beef closed lower for the second day with choice down $0.74 and select down $0.29. Feeder calves and cattle at auctions continue to bring higher money as demand remains strong.

Hog futures showed some buying interest at the lows on Thursday as traders bought the break. The market was not supported by cash or cutouts. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a steady price compared to the previous day. The packers should have most of their business done and may not be aggressive Friday. Pork cutouts were unable to find support with values down $0.98. The weakness of cash and cutouts may be due to the two, back-to-back holiday weeks; better demand and the resumption of regular slaughter may support the market.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	New contract highs in cattle will keep technical traders active as they trade with the trend. The fundamentals also provide support for higher prices.	1)	The demand for beef may slow as the prices move to record highs. International demand may be affected as buyers turn away.
2)	Packers are short-bought and need to purchase cattle. Feedlots continue to hold for higher prices, requiring packers to pay up or go without cattle for slaughter.	2)	If there is any indication of the resumption of feeder cattle imports from Mexico, traders may liquidate as a knee-jerk reaction to the news.
3)	The lower opening and lower early trade were rejected as the day progressed. Traders increased their interest in buying the break.	3)	Weekly hog weights increased by 2.6 pounds from the previous week, averaging 292.3 pounds, just 0.2 pounds below a year ago.
4)	Demand is likely to improve with packers more aggressive next week as the slaughter returns to normal. Packers will need hogs to maintain full slaughter schedules.	4)	Packers should have most of their purchases done for the week and will lower their bids Friday for any hogs that will be offered for sale.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Southern Live Cattle Trade $2.00 to $3.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

If today's trade was a glimpse of what may come in 2025 -- there's not a cowman out there who doesn't wish he had more cows. Both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts traded notably higher as traders continue to believe in the market's long-term bullishness. March corn is up 1 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is up $3.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 151.95 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

What a day, what a day, what a day it was for the live cattle complex! Traders came back from the New Year holiday charged and ready to support the live cattle complex which helped propel the contracts from $1.00 to $2.00 higher. More than anything traders' belief in the market's bullish trajectory seems unquestioned at this point as today's support was overflowing. February live cattle closed $2.00 higher at $193.60, April live cattle closed $1.77 higher at $196.05 and June live cattle closed $1.72 higher at $191.35. The cash cattle trade saw a little movement in the South where live cattle traded for mostly $195 to $196 which is $2.00 to $3.00 higher than last week's weighed average. And although bids were offered throughout the day in the North, dressed sales haven't fully developed yet. Bids of $310 dressed and $198 live were offered throughout the day in Nebraska, but feedlot managers seem confident that if they'll be patient and wait a little longer, packers will up the ante. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head -- 6,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.74 ($323.48) and select down $0.29 ($294.23) with a movement of 116 loads (66.85 loads of choice, 17.81 loads of select, 6.10 loads of trim and 24.91 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady/somewhat higher. Any more live cattle that sell in the South will likely remain steady with the week's trend, but packers are likely going to need to up their offers in the North if they wish to get any cattle bought.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex was the rallying force behind the momentum in today's cattle market as it jumped anywhere from $2.00 to $3.00 higher. January feeders closed $3.45 higher at $266.47, March feeders closed $3.22 higher at $266.20 and April feeders closed $2.97 higher at $266.52. I highly suggest continuing to watch sales over the next month as it's likely that these prices are going to continue to impress us all as buyers know that the closer we get to spring the more money grass calves are likely to bring. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri compared to their last sale two weeks ago, feeder steers sold $2.00 to $7.00 higher and feeder heifers sold anywhere from $2.00 lower to $10.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 85%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/1/2025: up $0.67, $261.77.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed mostly higher even though some of the nearby contracts closed just slightly lower. February lean hogs closed $0.15 lower at $81.15, April lean hogs closed $0.02 lower at $86.55 and June lean hogs closed $0.25 higher at $99.42. It was a little disheartening for the market to see pork cutout values close lower but with a $8.83 decline in the belly -- a lower overall carcass price is expected. Hopefully, Friday's export report will show better demand. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report are unchanged from the day before as pork prices averaged $80.08 on 2,916 head. Pork cutouts totaled 275.96 loads with 249.56 loads of pork cuts and 26.40 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.98, $89.32. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 489,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 12/30/2024: down $0.08, $84.27.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, it's likely that packers have fulfilled the vast majority of their needs for the week.

Thursday Midday Markets - Southern Cattle Trading for $195 -- $2.00 to $3.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mostly higher as traders have dived aggressively into the livestock complex following the New Year's holiday. Some light cash cattle trade is currently being noted in the South at $195 which is $2.00 to $3.00 higher, but otherwise, the market is still quiet. March corn is up 3/4 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is up $2.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 179.77 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Well, if today's trade is any inclination to what the rest of the year is going to be – buckle up friends! It's been exhilarating to watch the live cattle contracts trade throughout Thursday's market as the complex is anxiously waiting to see just how the week's cash cattle trade pans out -- but traders believe so strongly about the market's fundamental position that it is continuing to trade higher. February live cattle are up $1.82 at $193.40, April live cattle are up $1.77 at $196.07 and June live cattle are up $1.87 at $191.50. A thin movement of trade has been noted in the South at $195 which is $2.00 to $3.00 higher than last week's weighed average, but otherwise, the market is still quiet. A single bid of $310 dressed is currently being offered in the North, but no Northern sales have been noted yet. Asking prices are firm in the South at $195 to $196 but are still not established in the North. Packer interest will likely improve throughout the day, but the week's trade could be delayed until Friday.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.67 ($322.55) and select down $0.23 ($294.29) with a movement of 53 loads (29.89 loads of choice, 7.46 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 15.26 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is rocking and rolling as Thursday's noon hour nears as most of the nearby contracts are trading anywhere from $2.00 to $3.00 higher. January feeders are up $3.57 at $266.65, March feeders are up $3.50 at $266.47 and April feeders are up $3.17 at $266.72. It will be especially interesting to watch feeder cattle sales over the next two weeks, as buyer demand will likely be strong given that the market has been on a holiday hiatus and buyers will likely have large orders to fill.

LEAN HOGS:

After trading sharply lower earlier in the week, the lean hog complex has finally found some technical footing. The spot February contract is trading slightly lower, but the rest of the 2025 and 2026 contracts are all trading higher as there's hope for better export opportunities. February lean hogs are down $0.02 at $81.25, April lean hogs are up $0.05 at $86.62 and June lean hogs are up $0.22 at $99.40.

The projected lean hog index is delayed from the source. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 345 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $79.59. Pork cutouts total 123.12 loads with 107.90 loads of pork cuts and 15.22 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.17, $92.47.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cash Cattle Expected to Trade Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle are expected to trade early Thursday as packers purchase cattle for slaughter. There is a strong possibility they are short-bought and will need to be aggressive. Feedlots are asking for more in anticipation the packers will need to step up. Traders were not shy about holding and adding to their long positions through the end of the year. Boxed beef prices slipped Tuesday with choice down $1.15 and select down $0.24 but that may not impact trade. Packers are trying to reduce slaughter to improve margins and back up cattle in the market, but that strategy has not changed the market dynamic.

Hog futures are in trouble with prices falling back to the lowest levels since October. Futures broke hard to close the year as liquidation surfaced with a vengeance. Hopefully, this was traders liquidating to close out their books for the end of the year and they may step back in to buy back into the market if futures show support. However, there has been concern over demand in the near term. Packers were aggressive Tuesday as they wanted to buy most of the hogs ahead of the new year. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report showed cash up $1.27. However, cutouts fell apart, posting a decline of $4.02. Picnics fell $9.13 with hams down $5.66. The only category showing a gain was ribs.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	March and later feeder cattle futures closed at new contract highs. This may trigger further short-covering.	1)	Continued high beef prices will impact export sales and may reduce consumer demand as the grocery bill increases.
2)	Cash cattle are expected to see further gains this week as packers seem to be short-bought.	2)	The long position held by managed-money traders is near a record. This may trigger some liquidation as the market corrects from being overbought.
3)	The liquidation of hogs may have been due to positioning for the end of the year. The break may be viewed as a buying opportunity.	3)	Pork cutouts took a big hit Tuesday, but might regain much of that loss. However, cutouts have not been able to find solid support.
4)	Demand for pork may be increasing due to the high prices of beef. More consumers may see the value of pork.	4)	Cash hogs are expected to be lower the rest of the week as packers may have purchased sufficient supply.