Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Futures Volatility Expected to Remain High

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Feeder cattle led the charge lower Tuesday. Cash cattle have been traded this week, but there is a strong chance cash may be no better than steady with last week. Feedlots may be more aggressive sellers as they may feel the market is running out of steam to the upside. It is too early to tell with the recent pressure stemming from the uncertainty of the tariff situation and cattle imports from Mexico resuming. Fund traders held record-long futures positions, which may also have added to the liquidation. Packers may be less apt to bid up for cattle this week if they sense feedlots might be anxious to sell. Boxed beef prices were lower with choice down $1.26 and select down $2.43.

Hog traders responded quickly to the news that tariffs on Mexico and Canada were delayed. Futures regained the losses of Monday as traders felt comfortable buying into the market for the long term. Either futures will maintain a large sideways trading pattern or they will push to new highs soon. Pork cutouts increased $0.95 on Tuesday. This should keep the packers aggressive Wednesday as they purchase hogs to fulfill their needs for the week. Hog supplies are current and increased slaughter requires more hogs. The demand for pork is showing signs of improving.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures have corrected from being overbought. This may increase the interest from traders to buy back into the market as cattle supplies remain tight.	1)	The weakness of cattle futures and the uncertainty of the tariff situation may keep pressure on the market as fund traders liquidate more of their long positions.
2)	Mexico and Canada are taking steps to avoid tariffs being implemented. For the time being, this could provide support to the market.	2)	Packers may take advantage of the uncertainty of the market and be less aggressive in the cash market. Feedlots may want to move cattle in case prices have reached a top for the time being.
3)	Hog slaughter remains strong and above a year ago. This indicates demand is good and the packers need to purchase hogs to maintain the slaughter pace.	3)	Hog futures rebounded nicely Tuesday but the upside may be limited. This may result in futures developing a large sideways trading pattern.
4)	The rebound of hog futures on Tuesday is a testament to resiliency of the market. Traders may be willing to buy any price breaks now that tariffs are on hold.	4)	The uncertainty of the tariff situation will keep traders cautious. Another announcement could be made at any time of further tariffs that could impact the market.

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Continue Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures posted strong follow-through losses Tuesday sparked by active market pressure seen at the end of last week and continued Monday. The concern that additional market softness may develop before technical support redevelops may leave live cattle and feeder cattle trade vulnerable to further losses midweek. Hog futures posted active gains, but given previous losses, it is uncertain just how deep current buyer support remains. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, up $1.97 with a weighted average of $85.40 on 3,719 hogs. March corn closed up 5 3/4 at $4.945 and March soybean meal closed up $10.30 at $314.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 134.13 at 44,556.04.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures continued lower late Tuesday despite a short-lived attempt to bring some stability to the market in the early minutes of morning trade. Triple-digit losses once again put pressure on the live cattle complex with a combination of spillover pressure from active feeder cattle losses and still uncertainty about how talk of tariffs would impact overall beef exports. February futures are still holding above the $200 per cwt for the time being, but nearby contracts have fallen $6 to $9 per cwt from last week's record high levels. Traders will cautiously monitor both outside market direction and beef values in the next couple of days which could help to bring some additional buyer support back to the table. Cash cattle markets are extremely quiet Tuesday afternoon with no sign of bids or offers developing in any area of cattle country. The price shifts through the futures market are causing both sides to take a "wait and see" approach before even entertaining the idea of throwing a number out. Given the strong price support last week and the early week volatility, cash markets may become even more volatile before the end of the week. February live cattle closed $3.00 higher at $200.05, February live cattle closed $1.10 lower at $201.875, April live cattle closed $1.50 lower at $198.65 and June live cattle closed $1.25 lower at $193.225. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head, 2,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago. 

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.26 ($330.73) and select down $2.43 ($317.41) with a movement of 105.54 loads (57.13 loads of choice, 28.96 loads of select, 7.04 loads of trim and 12.41 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Lack of activity in cash cattle markets and the inability for bids is expected to set the tone for steady markets midweek until additional direction can develop. There is expected to be increased focus on futures direction through the end of the week as well as the ability to sustain current beef values over the coming days.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures attempted to stabilize early Tuesday morning following sharp early week losses seen across the complex Monday. But any attempt to bring any support back to the market was very short-lived as the livestock market continues to remain rattled by talk of potential tariffs. The announcement that cattle imports from Mexico will resume, although the overall details are still unclear is adding further market uncertainty to the entire feeder cattle complex. Nearby feeder cattle futures have fallen $7 to $8 per cwt in the past two sessions and March contracts are now trading over $10 per cwt lower from market highs set last week. The inability to hold the recent momentum in the market may be just as or more impactful to the overall market structure as the actual price losses seen in the last couple of days. March feeders closed $2.25 lower at $268.25, April feeders closed $2.20 lower at $267.625 and May feeders closed $2.18 lower at $265.8. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for January 31: down $1.18, $279.45.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures rebounded from sharp losses seen Monday as traders seemed to slowly but cautiously back away from the panic driven selling seen in the complex earlier in the week. Spot February futures were the least volatile market Tuesday with prices gaining 75 cents per cwt. But the rest of the complex posted strong triple digit gains through the end of the session. April futures led the market higher with a $3.40 per cwt gain, closing at $89/75 per cwt. This is still well below the $91.92 high last week, but the ability to bounce back from Monday's losses has given new life to the lean hog complex during early February. February lean hogs closed $0.75 higher at $85.075, April lean hogs closed $3.40 higher at $89.75 and May lean hogs closed $3.03 higher at $93.75. Tuesday's hog slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head, 6,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 340.16 loads with 302.99 loads of pork cuts and 37.17 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.95 at $94.76. The CME Lean Hog Index for February 2: up $0.31, $84.08.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Early cash hog bids are expected to be generally steady Wednesday morning. The volatility in lean hog futures prices as well as shifts in pork cutout values through the week may keep cash hogs unsettled but starting out Wednesday trade generally steady.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Update - Further Pressure Develops in Futures

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Firm follow-through pressure is developing in all live cattle and feeder cattle futures, despite a sense of initial market stability early Tuesday morning. The follow-through pressure is equally evident in nearby live cattle and feeder cattle futures, where Monday's losses were most noticeable in feeder cattle futures at the end of the trading day. Prices still remain well above both 40- and 100-day moving averages, but markets have pulled significantly away from all-time highs and that is creating additional market uncertainty. March corn is up 6 3/4 at $4.955 and March soybean meal is up $8.50 at $312.2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 37.49 at 44,459.40.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures started Tuesday morning with cautious optimism that the aggressive price tumble may have run its course. But despite the stability at opening bell, active selling pressure quickly and aggressively stepped back into the market, allowing for moderate to sharp losses through most of the morning. April futures are leading the market lower with increased concern of global markets surrounding tariff talk and potential challenges that would impact beef exports. But for now, traders seem to be content with current midday losses as trade may remain sluggish through the end of the trading day. Cash cattle markets remain very quiet early Tuesday with bids and asking prices yet to be well established for the week. At this point, significant trade will likely be delayed until the last half of the week. Both sides appear to be hesitant to extend any indication of market direction given the aggressive market volatility seen over the past couple of days. February live cattle are $1.50 lower at $201.475, April live cattle are $2.50 lower at $197.65, June live cattle are $2.10 lower at $192.375. 

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.74 ($333.73) and select up $0.91 ($320.75) with a movement of 39.90 loads (22.96 loads of choice, 10.19 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 6.75 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures have added additional price pressure as the session continued Tuesday, although the initial indication was that market stability may be established following the aggressive price tumble Monday. But lack of underlying supportive buying activity just after opening bell allowed for additional gaps to develop, allowing prices to tumble $1.80 to $2.10 per cwt at midday. Nearby feeder cattle futures have now recorded a $10 per cwt price loss since hitting all-time highs last week in January. The concern surrounding price pressure in live cattle markets and uncertainty around global trade activity in the coming months has caused traders to take a much less aggressive view to the market than was seen just one week ago. March feeders are $2.55 lower at $267.95, April feeders are $2.80 lower at $267.025 and May feeders are $2.80 lower at $265.175.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures rebounded Tuesday morning as traders retract most of Monday's losses. April futures are leading the complex higher with gains of $3 to $3.50 per cwt. Uncertainty remains about how overall trade will be impacted by all the tariff talk, but traders approached the market Tuesday in a much more calm fashion. Nearby contracts are still well below last week's highs, but the fact that lean hog futures have not continued to adjust lower similar to moves in the cattle market is helping to create a slight sense of market stability early in the week. February lean hogs are $0.78 higher at $85.1, April lean hogs are $2.95 higher at $89.3, and May lean hogs are $2.73 higher at $93.45. Hog Prices are unreported due to confidentiality Tuesday morning on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report. Pork cutouts totaled 175.54 loads with 158.35 loads of pork cuts and 17.19 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $1.42 at $93.01.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Tariffs Have Been Delayed for a Month

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The extreme bearishness in the feeder cattle futures was due to the resumption of feeder cattle imports from Mexico into the U.S. The other part of the equation was the tariffs that were to be imposed on Canada and Mexico and the uncertainty of what that was going to do to beef exports. However, the tariff situation changed throughout Monday. Both President Trump and Mexico agreed to put tariffs on hold for one month. Later in the day, Canada also is making commitments, putting tariffs on hold as well, pausing them for at least one month. That could significantly change the market Tuesday as the delay of those tariffs might result in some buying interest as traders may get back into the market to take advantage of the lower prices. There is no doubt futures will remain volatile in the near term. The overall fundamentals of the cattle market have not changed. Boxed beef prices were higher with choice up $4.31 and select up $2.77 indicating continued strong consumer demand.

The potential for tariffs hit the hog market hard but that may follow the same pattern as cattle now that the tariffs have been put on hold for 30 days. Cash prices were not released Monday due to packer confidentiality. We did see cutout values down $0.94, continuing the uncertainty of overall demand. The February contract closed $.15 higher as it needs to stay in line with cash due to it moving closer to expiration. Later contracts were hard hit with triple-digit losses, taking the June contract below $100 and July remaining just slightly above $100. The whole complex was under a bearish cloud Monday but with the lower prices and the change of the tariff news, traders may step back into the market to buy the break.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Tariffs with Mexico and Canada were put on hold for 30 days, which could result in traders becoming more aggressive buyers of cattle futures Tuesday as they want to take advantage of the break in prices.	1)	The resumption of cattle imports from Mexico this week may leave traders cautious. The selling pressure could continue Tuesday.
2)	The bullish numbers on the cattle inventory report should provide support under the market. Cattle supplies are tight and will remain that way.	2)	The feedlots may be anxious to sell cattle this week in case further bearish news surfaces. They may have less desire to hold cattle longer than necessary.
3)	The tariffs with Mexico and Canada being put on hold for 30 days could result in traders stepping back into the hog market to take advantage of the break in prices.	3)	Lower pork cutouts do not indicate demand is increasing and may limit the upside price potential.
4)	The packers are expected to be more aggressive in the cash market as they need to purchase hogs to maintain slaughter.	4)	Traders may not be anxious to buy hog futures aggressively do to the uncertainty over international demand.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Heavy News-Hitting Weekend Made for Struggle for Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Although last Friday's Cattle Inventory report was about as bullish as it could be, the news that broke over the weekend about tariffs being placed on Mexico and Canada along with Mexico cattle imports soon to resume took a toll on the livestock contracts on Monday. March corn is up 6 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $2.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 122.75 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex suffered the same stress that the rest of the livestock contracts did as Monday's market was a smorgasbord of incoming chaos. As traders attempted to sort through the weekend's news of tariffs going to be imposed on Mexico and Canada, and Mexico to soon again be importing cattle in the U.S. -- traders had a lot on their plate when the markets opened at Monday's start. February live cattle closed $1.62 lower at $202.97, April live cattle closed $2.15 lower at $200.15 and June live cattle closed $2.22 lower at $194.47. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in Nebraska/Colorado, somewhat higher in Kansas, but lower in Texas. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 115,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 8,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $208 which is $6.00 to $7.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded from $325 to $330, but mostly at $330 which is steady with the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 58,816 head. Of that, 87% (50,904 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 13% (7,912 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $4.31 ($331.99) and select up $2.77 ($319.84) with a movement of 89 loads (48.84 loads of choice, 18.70 loads of select, 6.98 loads of trim and 14.08 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that packers were able to get the vast majority of last week's cattle committed to the nearby delivery, they'll likely use the board's weakness as leverage and try to get cattle bought for steady money this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

To say it was a stressful day for the feeder cattle complex is beyond an understatement. And while chatter about tariffs did indeed affect the market, the biggest, unsettling news that seemed to affect the feeder cattle complex was APHIS's announcement over the weekend that Mexican cattle are again going to begin to be imported into the US any day now. What's frustrating about their announcement is that it comes with little detail: they don't say how the backlog of feeders is going to be imported, or when they will exactly begin to cross the board again. Nevertheless, the emotional turmoil sent the feeder cattle contracts spiraling lower even though just last week new all-time highs were scored in the fed cash cattle market yet again. March feeders closed $5.22 lower at $270.50, April feeders closed $5.30 lower at $269.82 and May feeders closed $5.15 lower at $267.97. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri at their midsession point and compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers were selling $5.00 lower to $5.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 65%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/31/2025: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

Although there have already been positive conversations between President Trump and Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, which have delayed the Mexico import tax going into effect for at least a month, the lean hog complex still dove sharply lower through Monday's close as hog producers are on pins-and-needles given that Mexico is the largest export market for US pork. April lean hogs closed $4.00 lower at $86.35, June lean hogs closed $3.65 lower at $99.35 and July lean hogs closed $3.22 lower at $100.32. It wasn't helpful either that pork cutout values closed slightly lower, as traders need to see strong and stable demand. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report are unavailable because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 2,179 head traded, and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $83.32. Pork cutouts totaled 346.24 loads with 314.19 loads of pork cuts and 32.05 loads of trim. Pork out values: down $0.94, $93.81. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 491,000 head -- 8,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 1/30/2025: up $0.42, $83.06.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady/somewhat higher. Packers should show more interest in Tuesday's market given that they weren't overly aggressive on Monday.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Traders Try to Wrap Their Heads Around the Market With Little Success

GENERAL COMMENTS:

As the market tries to sift through the slew of announcements that came over the weekend -- stemming from APHIS's announcement that Mexican cattle imports are to resume any day, or the announcement that tariffs will be imposed on both Mexico and Canada. Traders are having a difficult time finding traction in Monday's market. March corn is up 5 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $0.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 61.28 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

One would have logically expected the live cattle complex to be trading higher this week as Friday's Cattle Inventory report clearly showed that there were fewer beef cows and heifers in the United States compared to a year ago. But what seems to be overclouding that bullish fundamental fact is that on Saturday, Feb. 1, APHIS announced that cattle imports from Mexico are going to resume any day now. We don't know how many cattle are going to come, or when specifically, but these two questions alone are enough of a reason for the live cattle complex to be trading lower, like it is. February live cattle are down $0.90 at $203.70, April live cattle are down $2.00 at $200.30 and June live cattle are down $2.10 at $194.60.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $208 which is $6.00 to $7.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded from $325 to $330, but mostly at $330, which is steady with the previous week's weighted average. And depending on where the week's weighted averages land, it's likely that these prices are again (for the fifth week in a row) new record setting prices.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $3.55 ($331.23) and select up $3.74 ($320.81) with a movement of 40 loads (20.17 loads of choice, 9.88 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 10.17 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Upon the announcement from APHIS over the weekend that cattle imports from Mexico are going to resume any day now, it comes as no surprise to see the feeder cattle market distressed over the matter. The biggest fear the feeder cattle complex has is that Mexican imports could add more supply to the market and negatively affect prices. March feeders are down $4.15 at $271.55, April feeders are down $4.20 at $270.65 and May feeders are down $4.25 at $268.87.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex has plummeted lower Monday morning as market participants try to make sense of the slew of announcements that broke over the weekend. While President Trump announcement earlier Monday morning that Mexico won't have tariffs imposed on it for at least another month, the market is trading in an unraveled fashion as U.S. pork producers are concerned about their ability to export pork into Mexico as they're our biggest export market. February lean hogs are down $0.07 at $84.10, April lean hogs are down $4.00 at $86.35 and June lean hogs are down $3.37 at $99.62.

The projected lean hog index for 2/3/2025 is up $0.29 at $83.77, and the actual index for 1/30/2025 is up $0.42 at $83.48. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 165 head have traded, and that the week's five-day rolling average now sits at $83.84. Pork cutouts total 179.46 loads with 166.84 loads of pork cuts and 12.62 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.43, $95.18.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Bullish Cattle Inventory Report To Provide Further Support

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle complex was able to close mostly in positive territory Friday after the previous two days of selling pressure. The market had adjusted to the higher cash cattle trade. Cash in the South traded $6.00 to $7.00 higher with dressed cattle in the North up $2.00, which provided some good support under the market going into the weekend. However, prices had declined from where they were earlier in the week prior to cash cattle trading. The market had to correct to get in line with cash. Boxed beef prices were higher with choice up $.20 and select up $1.17. Slaughter levels were lower than they were the previous week and a year ago. Packers are trying to limit slaughter to try to back up some cattle in the country. The feedlots are in the driver's seat and continue to hold cattle, causing packers to bid higher to get enough cattle for slaughter. The cattle inventory report was bullish as it showed lower cow numbers and lower heifer numbers than a year ago. That should keep cattle supplies somewhat tight for the next one or two years unless we see something else that has major impact on the market. We may not see cattle prices decline to any great extent other than price retracements, but the downside may be limited to some extent. Feeder cattle should remain supportive as there is good demand for feeder cattle and calves in the country. Early expectations for cash this week are for steady to higher. Feedlots will hold for higher cash again and hold cattle over if they do not receive the prices they want. The Commitments of Traders report showed fund traders buying 6,885 futures contracts in live cattle, bringing their net-long position to 156,909 -- a new record long. Funds sold 496 feeder cattle futures, reducing their net long to 29,375.

Hog futures struggled Friday with the April contract taking the brunt of it. There is concern over ongoing demand for pork. We have not been able to see consistency in underlying cash and pork cutouts. As long as that uncertainty continues, we may see a choppy market and the upside may be somewhat limited. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash at $2.81 Friday with a weighted average of $83.43. It is unusual to see cash hogs that strong on a Friday. Monday might see some lower cash trade as the packers assess weekend demand. Pork cut outs gained $1.82. Price retracements will probably be bought into by the funds as they are looking at it for the long term. The Commitments of Traders report showed the funds reducing their net-long position by 213 contracts, bringing their net position to 91,937.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Cattle Inventory report should continue to support the market for the rest of this year and likely all of next year.	1)	The cattle market is overbought and moving closer to a possible price correction. The funds are holding a record-long cattle futures position.
2)	Cash cattle are expected to be higher this week due to continued tight supplies. Feedlots are in control and are willing to hold cattle if they do not receive the prices they ask for.	2)	Feeder, cattle imports are resuming from Mexico. There will be stricter protocols for testing before they will be able to come over the border. That could limit the upside potential for cattle in the near-term, possibly triggering some selling.
3)	Higher cash and cutouts on Friday may provide support Monday and possibly see further gains this week as it seems hog supplies might actually be tightening.	3)	Hog futures closed below support Friday, which could increase the selling interest from traders as they try to take some profits ahead of a possible further price decline.
4)	The price declines in hog futures Friday might have been a price retracement with traders willing to buy the break.	4)	Cash hogs are expected to be lower, as is usual for a Monday. Packers may wait to see how the weekend demand was before purchasing hogs more aggressively.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Find Technical Footing

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle contracts were finally able to regain some technical footing in the market as traders eventually gave respect to the fact that this week's cash cattle prices did trade higher again. It was also supportive that today's Cattle Inventory report shared yet again another decline in the US beef cowherd, which will limit feeder cattle supplies in the years to come. March corn is down 8 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $3.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 337.47 points.

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: February live cattle down $0.18, April live cattle down $0.72; March feeder cattle down $2.97, April feeder cattle down $0.32; February lean hogs up $1.88, April lean hogs up $2.15.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was thankfully able to round the week out on a stronger note as traders finally sobered up to the fundamental reality of the market and gave respect to the fact that fed cash cattle prices did trade higher again this week. February live cattle closed $0.12 higher at $204.60, April live cattle closed $0.80 higher at $202.30 and June live cattle closed $0.92 higher at $196.70. Throughout the week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $208, which is $6.00 to $7.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $330, which is steady to $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average.

Friday's slaughter is estimated at 114,000 head -- 3,000 head more than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 2,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated to be around 600,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 32,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.20 ($327.68) and select up $1.17 ($317.07) with a movement of 90 loads (53.11 loads of choice, 16.81 loads of select, 5.48 loads of trim and 14.90 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. The market's trend is going to continue to trend steady/somewhat higher until packers get enough cattle bought up. Which is why it's imperative to continue to monitor, week in and week out, how many cattle packers get bought each week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex was able to round out the day higher following the disappointing trade seen on Wednesday and Thursday. Traders saw the higher trend in the live cattle complex and were finally comfortable again trading the contracts higher. This was due to enough technical support seeping over from the live cattle market's higher trend, and more importantly, from the fed cash cattle market's higher trend this week. But above all else, the feeder cattle complex could potentially grab another gear and trade higher again next week as today's Cattle Inventory report again showed a decrease in the number of beef cows in the U.S. There was a decrease in the beef replacement heifers as well -- so feeder cattle supplies will remain inherently thin through 2025 and into 2026. 

March feeders closed $2.52 higher at $275.72, April feeders closed $2.80 higher at $275.12 and May feeders closed $2.82 higher at $273.12. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week and throughout the entire state, feeder steers traded $6.00 to $9.00 higher and steer calves sold $8.00 to $11.00 higher. Feeder heifers and heifer calves sold $3.00 to $8.00 higher, except those weighing 500 to 600 pounds, which sold $10.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold $7.00 to $11.00 higher, and slaughter bulls sold $5.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 68%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/30/2025: not available at this time.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed mixed as the nearby contracts struggled and fell below the market's resistance at $91.00, but the deferred contracts were able to close slightly higher. Seeing a decline in the nearby contracts is disappointing for the hog enthusiasts as pork cutout values have been higher this week and the week's export report was supportive as well. But I guess the market's resistance at $91.00 simply was more than what traders were able to wrestle with. February lean hogs closed $0.20 lower at $84.17, April lean hogs closed $1.57 lower at $90.35 and June lean hogs closed $0.87 lower at $103.00. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $2.81 with a weighted average price of $83.43 on 2,665 head. Pork cutouts total 282.44 loads with 252.58 loads of pork cuts and 29.87 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.82, $94.75. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 485,000 head – steady with a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 156,000 head. The CME lean hog index 1/29/2025: up $0.47, $83.06.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers rarely buy aggressively in the cash market on Mondays.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Complex Trades Higher Ahead of the Cattle Inventory Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle contracts have changed their tune as they're again trading higher thanks to the fundamental support of stronger fed cash cattle sales this week. However, the lean hog complex has run into some technical pressure, which is keeping its nearby contracts trading slightly lower. The highly anticipated Cattle Inventory report is set to be released later this afternoon. March corn is down 4 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $1.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 54.51 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex has again changed its tune as the market seems more willing today to see the merit in this week's stronger cash cattle trade, which is something traders were blind to throughout Thursday's sharp descent. February live cattle are up $0.55 at $204.97, April live cattle are up $0.77 at $202.27 and June live cattle are up $0.75 at $196.52. Some more trade has developed in Nebraska live at $208 to $210, but otherwise, the market hasn't reported any new sales. Thus far throughout the week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $208, which is $6.00 to $7.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $330, which is steady to $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Some more cash cattle trade could trickle in here and there as feedlot managers aim to clean up their showlists ahead of the week's conclusion, but largely it's looking like the week's prices are set. Please note that later this afternoon USDA will release the Cattle Inventory Report, which will be a big-ticket item for the complex, and the US beef cow herd is expected to be lower once again.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.08 ($327.56) and select up $0.35 ($316.25) with a movement of 62 loads (37.57 loads of choice, 8.09 loads of select, 3.78 loads of trim and 12.83 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Thanks to the additional support of the live cattle complex's higher trend this morning and the fundamental support of strong fed cattle prices -- the feeder cattle contracts are again able to trade higher themselves. March feeders are up $1.47 at $274.67, April feeders are up $1.27 at $273.60 and May feeders are up $0.82 at $271.12. The market will be anxiously awaiting to see what the Cattle Inventory report leases later this afternoon, and if there is again a reduction in the US beef cowherd (which is anticipated) then that should bode well for the feeder cattle complex as it shows that supplies will continue to be limited in the upcoming years.

LEAN HOGS:

Meanwhile, the lean hog complex's nearby contracts have run into some resistance as the market's nearby contracts are trading slightly lower while the deferred months are continuing with their rally. February lean hogs are up $0.55 at $85.00, April lean hogs are down $0.65 at $91.27 and June lean hogs are down $0.20 at $103.72. Today's lower technical move isn't because of a lack of demand either -- pork cutout values are up $2.69 this morning, showing excellent demand. Instead, today's technical weakness stems from the fact that again traders are up against resistance and aren't confident that they should challenge this threshold ahead of the week's end.

The projected lean hog index for 1/30/2025 is up $0.42 at $83.48, and the actual index for 1/29/2025 is up $0.47 at $83.06. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $84.03, ranging from $78.00 to $86.00 on 2,290 head and a five-day rolling average of $83.52. Pork cutouts total 192.29 loads with 170.90 loads of pork cuts and 21.39 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.69, $95.62.

Friday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Inventory Report to be Released Today

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The January feeder cattle contract went off the board Thursday at a record high $281.90. However, later contracts suffered losses averaging $2.50. Live cattle showed similar losses with April taking the brunt of it with a loss of $3.45. The fundamentals did not change and even were better from the cash standpoint. Cash traded $6.00 to $7.00 higher in the South and $2.00 higher in the North. This should continue Friday as packers need to finish buying for the week. Packers continue to pull back on slaughter but to no avail. Cattle weights are higher, making up for the lighter slaughter numbers. Boxed beef fell Thursday with choice down $3.06 and select down $4.77. The Cattle Inventory report will be released Friday afternoon, providing an indication of the status of the beef and dairy herds.

Hog futures found support Thursday with all contracts closing higher. The gains were not large -- but gains, nevertheless. The head-and-shoulders bottoms in the June and July contracts suggest further upside potential if technical traders have their way. The limiting factor may be the choppiness of cash and cutouts. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $2.87. Pork cutout declined $0.38. Some support stemmed from pork export sales totaling 33,600 metric tons (mt), indicating current prices are not reducing international interest. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 150,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The jump in cash cattle prices should bring traders back into the market as futures are below cash.	1)	The large drop in boxed beef prices could indicate beef prices may have reached a top or may be near a top. Beef prices will not go up forever.
2)	Feedlots are in control as tight supplies keep them asking for more and packers need to pay.	2)	The Cattle Inventory report may show more cattle than expected as there may have been a slight rebuilding of the herd.
3)	Traders remain bullish on the hog market in the anticipation cash and cutouts will trend higher. The average weight last week was 290.8 pounds, down 0.9 pounds from the previous week and steady with a year ago.	3)	Traders need to see consistent strength in cash hogs and cutouts to push futures through technical resistance and increase buying interest.
4)	The head-and-shoulders bottoms on the June and July contracts suggest further upside if the pattern is to be fulfilled.	4)	Hog supplies have not shown any signs of tightening. Packers have a sufficient supply of market-ready hogs.

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Live Cattle Trade $6.00 to $7.00 Higher, Dressed Cattle Trade Steady to $2.00 Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex traded mixed throughout the day as the lean hog complex continued to inch higher. However, the cattle contracts were technically troubled throughout the day, even though fed cash cattle prices traded higher. Southern live cattle were marked at $208, which is $6.00 to $7.00 higher. Dressed cattle sold for $330, which is steady to $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. March corn is down 6 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $5.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 168.61 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 20,200 mt for 2025 were primarily for South Korea (11,300 mt), Japan (3,800 mt) and Mexico (2,100 mt). Pork net sales of 33,600 mt for 2025 were primarily for Mexico (11,800 mt), China (11,200 mt) and South Korea (3,700 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was an odd market to watch throughout the day as the marketplace had two very different realities and influences pulling upon it. The technical side of the market scurried lower at the day's start and was simply unwilling to look at any other possible direction other than trading sharply lower. Meanwhile, the cash cattle market continued to do what it has recently done best -- and that's to continue to trade higher. Throughout the day, Southern live cattle traded at mostly $208, which is $6.00 to $7.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $330, which is steady to $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Some more cash cattle trade will likely develop ahead of the week's end, but the week's prices are likely set. The big-ticket item to watch for on Friday will be the Cattle Inventory report, which will likely showcase another decline in the U.S. beef cow herd. February live cattle closed $2.55 lower at $204.47, April live cattle closed $3.45 lower at $201.50 and June live cattle closed $2.97 lower at $195.77. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $3.06 ($327.48) and select down $4.77 ($315.90) with a movement of 138 loads (89.92 loads of choice, 26.40 loads of select, 12.54 loads of trim and 9.58 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that cattle have now traded in both regions, it's likely that any more trade that does develop will remain steady with the week's trend.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex was merely glued to the live cattle complex as it followed closely the live cattle market's direction. March feeders closed $2.07 lower at $273.20, April feeders closed $2.27 lower at $272.32 and May feeders closed $2.67 lower at $270.30. Even though the fed cash cattle market traded higher throughout the day, traders seemed unwilling to focus on anything besides the technical mayhem unraveling some of the cattle complex's recent success. At Torrington Livestock Auction in Torrington, Wyoming, compared to last week, steer calves under 650 pounds traded $3.00 to $5.00 higher, with a few instances where prices reached $10.00 higher. Heifer calves traded unevenly steady, with 400-pound heifers trading $5.00 lower. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 46%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/29/2025: up $1.62, $281.07.

LEAN HOGS:

Although the cattle contracts suffered throughout the day, the lean hog complex continued to inch higher through Thursday's close. February lean hogs closed $0.47 higher at $84.37, April lean hogs closed $0.60 higher at $91.92 and June lean hogs closed $0.40 higher at $103.87. Although it was somewhat disappointing to see pork cutout values dip slightly lower, the morning's strong export report did help lend some continued encouragement to the futures complex. The big obstacle that the lean hog complex now has to dance with is whether or not trades want to take on the market's resistance at $92.00. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.87 with a weighted average price of $80.62 on 1,693 head. Pork cutouts totaled 213.04 loads, with 188.57 loads of pork cuts and 24.48 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.38, $92.93. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 483,000 head -- 25,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago. The CME lean hog index 1/28/2025: up $0.48, $82.59.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, packers are all but done buying this week in the cash hog market.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cash Cattle Trade Higher While the Board Weakens

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is trading mixed into Thursday's noon hour as the cattle contracts are seeing a midweek setback, but the lean hog contracts continue to trade higher. Some live cattle have sold in the South for $208, which is $6.00 to $7.00 higher than last week's weighted average. March corn is down 6 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $5.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 71.70 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 20,200 mt for 2025 were primarily for South Korea (11,300 mt), Japan (3,800 mt) and Mexico (2,100 mt). Pork net sales of 33,600 mt for 2025 were primarily for Mexico (11,800 mt), China (11,200 mt) and South Korea (3,700 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is currently being pulled in two very opposite directions as, technically speaking, the market is enduring what appears to be a midweek correction as the contracts are falling anywhere from $2.00 to $3.00 lower, all while the cash cattle market is again trading $6.00 to $7.00 higher in the Southern plains. February live cattle are down $3.05 at $203.97, April live cattle are down $3.90 at $201.05 and June live cattle are down $3.17 at $195.57. The market's nearest support plane lies at $198 in the spot April contract, which is a steep fall away from its current price of $201.05. Pinpointing what's caused the technical turmoil this morning is challenging, as there's more than enough fundamental support developing to outweigh most anything. But given the sheer fact that the contracts are trading at all-time high levels, traders could just be showing signs of some technical exhaustion. Bids of $330 have surfaced in Nebraska, but otherwise, there's been no business in the North.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.68 ($328.86) and select down $4.23 ($316.44) with a movement of 73 loads (35.54 loads of choice, 19.69 loads of select, 12.54 loads of trim and 5.10 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is following right in line with the live cattle market's trend this morning as the contracts are enduring stiff technical pressure. March feeders are down $2.82 at $272.42, April feeders are down $3.07 at $271.52 and May feeders are down $3.47 at $269.50. And even though the fed cash cattle market is proving that it's going to trade higher again this week, traders seem fixated on the contract's morning mayhem and somewhat unable to refocus on the fundamental developments at play.

LEAN HOGS:

While the cattle contracts dip lower, the lean hog complex continues with its upward trek as the market remains committed to advancing its position. It's rather impressive that traders continue to push the contracts higher amid the setback in the cattle contracts and upon seeing a slightly lower price in the morning's cutout value. But the carcass's lower price is mostly because of the $3.09 decline in the belly. February lean hogs are up $0.27 at $84.17, April lean hogs are up $0.32 at $91.65 and June lean hogs are up $0.10 at $103.57.

The projected lean hog index for 1/29/2025 is up $0.47 at $83.06 and the actual index for 1/28/2025 is up $0.48 at $82.59. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 546 head have traded this morning, and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $83.00. Pork cutouts total 119.93 loads, with 106.02 loads of pork cuts and 13.92 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.12, $93.19.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - A Further Price Correction May Take Place

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The bullish attitude of the market remains but traders realized the market was higher than it should be relative to cash. The euphoria of recent days needed a correction. The correction may not last long if cash trades higher this week. Nothing has been done so far with asking prices not established in the North. That may push trading back to Friday. Feedlots will hold for higher cash and will have no problem holding cattle over another week if necessary. Boxed beef prices were lower with choice down $1.91 and select down $1.29. Lower boxed beef on Wednesday is not expected to have an impact on the market Thursday. Thursday is the last day to trade January feeder cattle.

Hog futures made new contract highs in the June and later months Wednesday. Buying interest subsided and futures slipped back into negative territory into the close. The April contract was able to close higher. The National Daily Direct Afternoon report showed cash down $0.83 while pork cutouts increased $0.45. The price action on Wednesday was not bearish to the market, but the result of some profit-taking after recent gains. Packers are expected to be unaggressive Thursday, which may result in lower cash. Saturday slaughter is estimated at 150,000 head.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The fundamentals of the cattle market have not changed and the weakness on Wednesday was just a price correction.	1)	The weakness of cattle futures Wednesday may have been the beginning of a three-day price correction as the fund traders take some profits.
2)	Feedlots are expected to hold for higher cash or hold cattle over until next week if they do not get it.	2)	The lofty levels of cattle futures and cash may run into consumer resistance as the market cannot go up forever without slowing demand.
3)	Pork demand is holding and increasing as will be reflected in the market. The weakness on Wednesday was just some profit-taking.	3)	Hog futures are notorious for a retracement after a significant price move. Traders may take some profits off the table for now.
4)	New contract highs in most hog contracts keep the trend higher and traders will remain confident over higher prices to come.	4)	The upside might be limited for hogs unless both cash and cutouts can find further strength and move higher. Higher prices are already factored into the market.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Let Contracts Drift Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mostly lower Wednesday afternoon as traders weren't as bold as they were earlier in the week. No substantial cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, but packer demand should improve on Thursday. March corn is up 11 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $8.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 136.83 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex ended the day lower as traders were skeptical of advancing the contracts any higher without reassurance of what this week's cash cattle trade is going to do. February live cattle closed $1.52 lower at $207.02, April live cattle closed $2.32 lower at $204.95 and June live cattle closed $2.60 lower at $198.75. The fact that boxed beef prices closed lower isn't dramatically alarming as this is a seasonal trend for this time of year that we fully expect as consumer demand weakens slightly until the warmer spring weather comes and grilling is fully underway. No substantial cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, as feedlot managers and packers again go toe-to-toe. Packer demand should improve by Thursday, although it's possible that the week's trade could be delayed until Friday as both parties have different desires for the market's outcome. Asking prices are noted in the South at $210 but are still not established for the North. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 124,000 head -- steady with a week and a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.91 ($330.54) and select down $1.29 ($320.67) with a movement of 160 loads (127.81 loads of choice, 16.26 loads of select, 4.41 loads of trim and 11.51 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Given that feedlot managers are still holding out for higher prices, it's likely that cattle will indeed trade steady to somewhat higher this week when trade does develop.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the live cattle contracts not lending technical support and the nearby corn contracts closing $0.10 to $0.11 higher -- the feeder cattle complex had little option but to close lower. March feeders closed $2.97 lower at $275.27, April feeders closed $3.20 lower at $274.60 and May feeders closed $3.30 lower at $272.97. Today's lower descent doesn't make me question the market's momentum, but rather instead believe that traders pulled the reigns back on the market until they see fundamental reassurance again. At Winter Livestock Auction in La Junta, Colorado compared to last week feeder steers sold $11.00 to $12.00 higher, and feeder heifers traded $5.00 to $9.00 higher with instances of sharply higher across all weight classes. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 49%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/28/2025: up $0.39, $279.45.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex had a mixed day, as the contracts were all trading higher ahead of the day's noon hour, but trader support fizzled out as the afternoon traded on. Thankfully, however, the spot April contract was able to maintain its higher position through the day's close, which is significant as traders kept that contract above the recently concurred resistance threshold at $91.00. February lean hogs closed steady at $83.90, April lean hogs closed $0.42 higher at $91.32 and June lean hogs closed $0.70 lower at $103.47. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $0.83 with a weighted average price of $83.49 on 5,769 head. Pork cutouts total 286.90 loads with 244.77 loads of pork cuts and 42.13 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.45, $93.31. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 483,000 head -- 39,000 head more than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 1/27/2025: up $0.17, $82.11.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Given that packers have been aggressive in the cash hog market now for two days in a row, it's likely that the vast majority of their buying is done for this week in the cash market.

Wednesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Hit the Pause Button as Traders Wait to See What Happens With Cash Trade

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The lean hog complex continues to rally while the cattle complex pumps the brakes on its rally as traders wait to see what happens in the cash cattle market. At this point still no bids have surfaced. March corn is up 9 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $7.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 23.93 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex has rallied aggressively all week, but at Wednesday's start, cautiousness poured into the marketplace and has remained the theme ever since. One could point to the day's downturn in boxed beef prices as part of the catalyst for today's weakness, and while that might be adding some pressure to the day, we also seasonally expect boxed beef prices to turn lower during this time as we are a long way away from prime grilling weather. February live cattle are down $0.90 at $207.65, April live cattle are down $1.75 at $205.52 and June live cattle are down $1.77 at $199.57. The cash cattle market is still silent with no bids having surfaced just yet. Asking prices are firm in the South at $210 but are still not established for Northern feedlots. Packer demand should begin to improve at any time now, but at this point, it's looking like trade will be delayed until Thursday or Friday.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.68 ($330.77) and select down $1.61 ($320.35) with a movement of 101 loads (78.68 loads of choice, 13.93 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 8.82 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Upon seeing the swift $0.08 to $0.09 rally in the corn complex, and the cautiousness that arose in the live cattle complex -- it comes as no surprise that the feeder cattle contracts are also trading lower into Wednesday's noon hour. March feeders are down $1.52 at $276.72, April feeders are down $1.65 at $276.62 and April feeders are down $1.85 at $275.95. Unless the fed cash cattle market begins to note some trade at higher prices, it's unlikely that the feeder cattle contracts will change their direction ahead of the day's end.

LEAN HOGS:

Higher cash prices, higher pork cutout values, and yes, the lean hog contracts are also trading higher as traders have taken out the resistance at $91.00. With support flowing bountifully to the lean hog complex, traders collectively decided to advance the contracts again this morning. This not only helped prices surpass the resistance at $91.00, but now the nearby contracts are nearly the market's long-term resistance at $92.00. February lean hogs are up $0.45 at $84.35, April lean hogs are up $1.35 at $92.25 and June lean hogs are up $0.20 at $104.37.

The projected lean hog index for 1/28/2025 is up $0.48 at $82.59 and the actual index for 1/27/2025 is up $0.17 at $82.11. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.53 with a weighted average price of $83.87, ranging from $78.00 to $85.50 on 4,603 head and a five-day rolling average of $83.00. Pork cutouts total 179.25 loads with 157.38 loads of pork cuts and 21.87 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.50, $94.36.

Wednesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Up, Up and Away!

GENERAL COMMENTS:

There seems to be no ceiling in the cattle market. New contract highs and strong gains keep traders bullish. The market is overbought, but traders do not seem to care. Managed money traders have a record-long position in feeders and may have the same in live cattle by this time, but traders do not care. The strength of boxed beef and the strong potential for higher cash cattle this week are driving the market higher. One would think oxygen is getting thinner at these levels, but until demand slows and cattle supplies loosen, who knows where prices will go? Boxed beef was higher on Tuesday with choice up $2.37 and select up $1.41. Slaughter is running lighter, but cattle weights are higher. The bi-annual Cattle Inventory report will be released on Friday and is expected to show bullish numbers.

Hogs have followed cattle higher but not to the same extent. New contract highs were made in the June through October months. June and July pushed back above $104 as traders are buying for the long term. Packers were aggressive on Tuesday with the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report up $3.93 and the weighted average price at $84.32. Pork cutout values declined $0.30. The more aggressive nature of packers over the past two weeks might indicate hog numbers have tightened a little and they are more aggressive to purchase what they need. Further gains are expected in futures Wednesday as the trend is higher. The April contract is poised to break above technical resistance at $91.25.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The cattle market is bullish and without negative news there may be nothing to slow it down. Prices may continue to climb.	1)	The cattle market is overbought and any negative news could trigger profit-taking.
2)	Cattle numbers are tightening and that will continue for some time in the future. The cycle to rebuild may take 2 to 3 years.	2)	Historically, when a market moves rapidly higher and it moves to levels outside the realm of normal, the market generally falls faster than it rose. Once liquidation begins, cattle traders may sell quickly.
3)	Hogs are in demand and the packers are aggressively purchasing them to fill slaughter needs and pork demand.	3)	It seems much of the increase in hog futures is due to the perception that pork demand will improve and not by the current cutout values.
4)	New contract highs in some hog contracts should bring in more buying interest as traders feel confident over higher prices.	4)	Hog futures may have difficulty moving higher without the further indication of stronger prices.