GENERAL COMMENTS:
The cattle contracts have changed their tune as they're again trading higher thanks to the fundamental support of stronger fed cash cattle sales this week. However, the lean hog complex has run into some technical pressure, which is keeping its nearby contracts trading slightly lower. The highly anticipated Cattle Inventory report is set to be released later this afternoon. March corn is down 4 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $1.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 54.51 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex has again changed its tune as the market seems more willing today to see the merit in this week's stronger cash cattle trade, which is something traders were blind to throughout Thursday's sharp descent. February live cattle are up $0.55 at $204.97, April live cattle are up $0.77 at $202.27 and June live cattle are up $0.75 at $196.52. Some more trade has developed in Nebraska live at $208 to $210, but otherwise, the market hasn't reported any new sales. Thus far throughout the week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $208, which is $6.00 to $7.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $330, which is steady to $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Some more cash cattle trade could trickle in here and there as feedlot managers aim to clean up their showlists ahead of the week's conclusion, but largely it's looking like the week's prices are set. Please note that later this afternoon USDA will release the Cattle Inventory Report, which will be a big-ticket item for the complex, and the US beef cow herd is expected to be lower once again.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.08 ($327.56) and select up $0.35 ($316.25) with a movement of 62 loads (37.57 loads of choice, 8.09 loads of select, 3.78 loads of trim and 12.83 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Thanks to the additional support of the live cattle complex's higher trend this morning and the fundamental support of strong fed cattle prices -- the feeder cattle contracts are again able to trade higher themselves. March feeders are up $1.47 at $274.67, April feeders are up $1.27 at $273.60 and May feeders are up $0.82 at $271.12. The market will be anxiously awaiting to see what the Cattle Inventory report leases later this afternoon, and if there is again a reduction in the US beef cowherd (which is anticipated) then that should bode well for the feeder cattle complex as it shows that supplies will continue to be limited in the upcoming years.
LEAN HOGS:
Meanwhile, the lean hog complex's nearby contracts have run into some resistance as the market's nearby contracts are trading slightly lower while the deferred months are continuing with their rally. February lean hogs are up $0.55 at $85.00, April lean hogs are down $0.65 at $91.27 and June lean hogs are down $0.20 at $103.72. Today's lower technical move isn't because of a lack of demand either -- pork cutout values are up $2.69 this morning, showing excellent demand. Instead, today's technical weakness stems from the fact that again traders are up against resistance and aren't confident that they should challenge this threshold ahead of the week's end.
The projected lean hog index for 1/30/2025 is up $0.42 at $83.48, and the actual index for 1/29/2025 is up $0.47 at $83.06. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report average $84.03, ranging from $78.00 to $86.00 on 2,290 head and a five-day rolling average of $83.52. Pork cutouts total 192.29 loads with 170.90 loads of pork cuts and 21.39 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.69, $95.62.
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