GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex ended Thursday's market fully lower. More than anything a slight technical weakness seemed to draw the contracts lower. A light movement of dressed cattle sales was noted at $322 which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. March corn is down 4 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $7.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 68.42 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 9,700 mt for 2025 were primarily for Japan (3,600 mt), China (3,500 mt) and South Korea. Pork net sales of 30,300 mt for 2025 were primarily for Mexico (11,700 mt), South Korea (5,000 mt) and South Korea (5,000 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
Unfortunately, the market's momentum petered out throughout Thursday's trade which left the live cattle complex at a lower end by the day's close. Yes, fed cash cattle prices are trading steady to $2.00 higher this week, but the pressures in the futures complex simply seem to be more than what traders want to wrestle with. I do want to highlight that last week the CFTC data showed a sizeable increase in noncommercial positions which could be partly to blame for today's decline as some traders could be liquidating their positions for some quick profit-taking. Not to mention, as traders look at the market's resistance at $198.50 in the spot February contract, that simply seems to be too burdensome of an obstacle to try to conquer for the time being. February live cattle closed $1.92 lower at $196.60, April live cattle closed $1.65 lower at $197.67 and June live cattle closed $1.47 lower at $191.97. Throughout the day a light movement of dressed sales was reported at $322 which is $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and a few more live cattle sales were also noted at $201 which is steady with Wednesday's business and steady to $1.00 higher than last week's weighted average.
Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head -- 5,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $0.73 ($333.41) and select up $1.34 ($319.38) with a movement of 142 loads (87.34 loads of choice, 18.53 loads of select, 22.67 loads of trim and 13.03 loads of ground beef).
FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Given that trade has now developed in both regions it's likely that any more cleanup trade that transpires on Friday will be steady with the week's weighted averages.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Although the corn contracts rounded out the day lower, the feeder cattle complex wasn't able to post any sort of a rally as technical weakness overcame the marketplace. Without the live cattle contracts trading higher, traders weren't willing to push the feeder cattle contracts higher amid being up against a major resistance point of $270 in the spot March contract. January feeders closed $1.77 lower a $273.45, March feeders closed $2.07 lower at $267.72 and April feeder cattle closed $1.92 lower at $268.20. At Winter Livestock Auction in Dodge City, Kansas compared to last week feeder steers over 700 pounds sold $8.00 higher, but steers under 550 pounds sold $10.00 higher. Heifers over 700 pounds were steady with a slight undertone of weakness, but heifers under 700 pounds traded $10.00 to $15.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold $3.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 72%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/15/2025: up $0.27, $278.31.
LEAN HOGS:
Even the lean hog complex's rally stalled out through Thursday's trade as the market simply grew stagnant. February lean hogs closed $0.82 lower at $82.30, April lean hogs closed $0.47 lower at $90.55 and June lean hogs closed $0.22 lower at $103.92. Pork cutout values did dip slightly lower, which is mainly because of the $3.20 decline in the ham, along with the $2.29 drop in the belly. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.03 with a weighted average price of $80.24 on 1,730 head. Pork cutouts totaled 304.48 loads with 239.26 loads of pork cuts and 65.22 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.44, $90.39. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 488,000 head -- 5,000 head more than the previous week and a year ago. The CME lean hog index 1/14/2025: up $0.11, $81.10.
FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers have shown good interest in the cash hog market this week and it's likely that they're essentially done buying now for the week.
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