GENERAL COMMENTS:
Live cattle and lean hog contracts rounded out the day higher as traders were thankful for the continued fundamental support. Meanwhile, the feeder cattle complex isn't taking anything for granted and wants to see how this week's fed cash cattle trade pans out before advancing the contracts. March corn is down 4 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $4.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 289.33 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle market's unwavering rally continued into Monday's trade as the contracts were once again pushed higher by strong trader support and were able to end the day higher yet again. February live cattle closed $0.90 higher at $206.67, April live cattle closed $0.80 higher at $203.82 and June live cattle closed $0.82 higher at $198.20. It's utterly incredible that the market is continuing to run as aggressively as it is given that both fed cattle prices are trading at new all-time highs and that the futures contracts are trading at life-of-the-contract highs as well. And last but certainly not least, it was helpful that boxed beef prices were supportive again today although we know that box prices could endure some seasonal pressure in the weeks ahead as it's a long time until grilling season. New showlists appear to be mixed, slightly higher in Texas and Nebraska, but lower in Kansas. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 114,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 8,000 head less than a year ago.
Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $201 to $202 which is steady to $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded anywhere from $328 to $330 which is $6.00 to $8.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 82,583 head. Of that 76% (62,966 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 24% (19,617 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.16 ($330.08) and select up $4.26 ($320.55) with a movement of 137 loads (92.93 loads of choice, 29.97 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 13.80 loads of ground beef).
TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Until packers get a plethora of cattle bought up, feedlot managers are going to continue to push the market higher.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Although the live cattle contracts rounded out the day higher and corn prices were slightly lower at Monday's close, the feeder cattle market wasn't as confident and consequently fell lower. March feeders are down $1.32 at $275.25, April feeders are down $1.02 at $274.42 and May feeders are down $0.60 at $272.80. Today's lower move wasn't a decision made because of fundamental indications, but rather because traders are aware of just how high the market's prices currently are and want to see how the week's fed cash cattle trade is going to pan out before advancing the contracts anymore. At the midsession point at Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week feeder steers were trading $5.00 to $10.00 higher, and feeder heifers were trading $5.00 to $8.00 stronger. Steer and heifer calves were selling unevenly steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 65%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/24/2025: down $0.35, $277.93.
LEAN HOGS:
With the help of traders and continued support from consumers -- the lean hog complex was able to push an aggressive rally through Monday's close. February lean hogs closed $0.75 higher at $83.05, April lean hogs closed $1.67 higher at $89.87 and June lean hogs closed $1.82 higher at $103.30. It was mostly because of the $5.24 jump in the butt and the $3.53 jump in the loin that the afternoon's carcass price was able to close higher – but more than anything traders remain pleased with the continued support of consumers which is helping advance the contracts. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report up $0.01 with a weighted average price of $80.39 on 1,011 head. Pork cutouts totaled 306.14 loads with 273.69 loads of pork cuts and 32.46 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.47, $93.16. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 483,000 head -- 61,000 head more than a week ago and 6,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 1/23/2025: down $0.01, $81.92.
TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Monday's cash hog trade was minimal so packers will likely be more aggressive in the market on Tuesday/Wednesday.
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