The cattle contracts were finally able to regain some technical footing in the market as traders eventually gave respect to the fact that this week's cash cattle prices did trade higher again. It was also supportive that today's Cattle Inventory report shared yet again another decline in the US beef cowherd, which will limit feeder cattle supplies in the years to come. March corn is down 8 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $3.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 337.47 points.
From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: February live cattle down $0.18, April live cattle down $0.72; March feeder cattle down $2.97, April feeder cattle down $0.32; February lean hogs up $1.88, April lean hogs up $2.15.
LIVE CATTLE:The live cattle complex was thankfully able to round the week out on a stronger note as traders finally sobered up to the fundamental reality of the market and gave respect to the fact that fed cash cattle prices did trade higher again this week. February live cattle closed $0.12 higher at $204.60, April live cattle closed $0.80 higher at $202.30 and June live cattle closed $0.92 higher at $196.70. Throughout the week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $208, which is $6.00 to $7.00 higher than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $330, which is steady to $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 114,000 head -- 3,000 head more than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 2,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated to be around 600,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 32,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.20 ($327.68) and select up $1.17 ($317.07) with a movement of 90 loads (53.11 loads of choice, 16.81 loads of select, 5.48 loads of trim and 14.90 loads of ground beef).
MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. The market's trend is going to continue to trend steady/somewhat higher until packers get enough cattle bought up. Which is why it's imperative to continue to monitor, week in and week out, how many cattle packers get bought each week.
FEEDER CATTLE:The feeder cattle complex was able to round out the day higher following the disappointing trade seen on Wednesday and Thursday. Traders saw the higher trend in the live cattle complex and were finally comfortable again trading the contracts higher. This was due to enough technical support seeping over from the live cattle market's higher trend, and more importantly, from the fed cash cattle market's higher trend this week. But above all else, the feeder cattle complex could potentially grab another gear and trade higher again next week as today's Cattle Inventory report again showed a decrease in the number of beef cows in the U.S. There was a decrease in the beef replacement heifers as well -- so feeder cattle supplies will remain inherently thin through 2025 and into 2026.
March feeders closed $2.52 higher at $275.72, April feeders closed $2.80 higher at $275.12 and May feeders closed $2.82 higher at $273.12. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week and throughout the entire state, feeder steers traded $6.00 to $9.00 higher and steer calves sold $8.00 to $11.00 higher. Feeder heifers and heifer calves sold $3.00 to $8.00 higher, except those weighing 500 to 600 pounds, which sold $10.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold $7.00 to $11.00 higher, and slaughter bulls sold $5.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 68%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/30/2025: not available at this time.
LEAN HOGS:The lean hog complex closed mixed as the nearby contracts struggled and fell below the market's resistance at $91.00, but the deferred contracts were able to close slightly higher. Seeing a decline in the nearby contracts is disappointing for the hog enthusiasts as pork cutout values have been higher this week and the week's export report was supportive as well. But I guess the market's resistance at $91.00 simply was more than what traders were able to wrestle with. February lean hogs closed $0.20 lower at $84.17, April lean hogs closed $1.57 lower at $90.35 and June lean hogs closed $0.87 lower at $103.00. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $2.81 with a weighted average price of $83.43 on 2,665 head. Pork cutouts total 282.44 loads with 252.58 loads of pork cuts and 29.87 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.82, $94.75. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 485,000 head – steady with a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 156,000 head. The CME lean hog index 1/29/2025: up $0.47, $83.06.
MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers rarely buy aggressively in the cash market on Mondays.
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