It was a wild day for the cattle complex as fed cash cattle prices jumped $6.00 to $8.00 higher and the board echoed the cash market's excitement. March corn is down 3 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $10.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 140.82 points.
From Friday to Friday, livestock contracts scored the following changes: February live cattle up $8.03, April live cattle up $5.53; January feeder cattle up $5.20, March feeder cattle up $8.52; February lean hogs up $1.18, April lean hogs down $0.13; March corn up $0.02, May corn up $0.04.
Friday's Cold Storage report shared that freezers were up 3% from the previous month but down 5% from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were up 4% from the previous month but down 5% from last year. Frozen pork supplies were up 2% from the previous month but down 6% from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were up 52% from last month but down 39% from last year.
LIVE CATTLE:These prices are what history stories are made out of. We knew the market was likely to see some excitement this week as cash prices were assumed to trade steady in the worst-case scenario. To see the trader buy-in and support to this degree all while feedlot managers continue to push the cash cattle market higher week after week is what true price discovery feels like.
As soon as traders caught wind that fed cash cattle prices were trading $6.00 to $8.00 higher, the contracts jumped higher and maintained those gains through the day's end. February live cattle closed $3.67 higher at $204.77, April live cattle closed $2.30 higher at $203.02 and June live cattle closed $1.67 higher at $197.37 – which again are all new record-breaking contract highs for each of those months. A light movement of trade was noted in the North at $328 to $330 which is $6.00 to $8.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average, and Southern live cattle were sold for mostly $210 which is $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average -- and both prices are yet again new all-time record-breaking achievements.
Packers are continuing to support the cash cattle market as they simply don't have enough supply built up around them. But moving forward, it remains critical to continue to monitor how they're committing the cattle because as soon as they have enough supply around them -- prices will weaken.
And last but certainly not least, Friday's Cattle on Feed report was another bullish feather that the market will tuck into its hat as on feed totals and placements were lighter, but marketings were higher than a year ago.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 111,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 10,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 2,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago. The week's total slaughter is estimated to be around 599,000 head -- 4,000 head less than a week ago and 15,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $3.04 ($327.92) and select down $0.92 ($316.29) with a movement of 129 loads (93.87 loads of choice, 14.41 loads of select, 7.53 loads of trim and 12.84 loads of ground beef).
MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Until we see how many cattle packers were able to buy, it's a risky coin toss to call.
FEEDER CATTLE:The market was well supported by traders and fundamental indicators alike. With the exciting developments in this week's fed cash cattle trade and the live cattle contracts rallying as they did, it was an easy option for traders to continue to push the feeder cattle contracts through Friday's close. March feeders closed $2.50 higher at $276.57, April feeders closed $3.00 higher at $275.45 and May feeders closed $2.92 higher at $273.40. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week and throughout the entire state, feeder steers and heifers traded steady to $4.00 higher. Steer calves traded steady to $3.00 higher and heifer calves sold steady to $3.00 higher except the 500- to 600-pound heifers traded $5.00 lower. Slaughter cows sold $3.00 to $7.00 higher and slaughter bulls traded $2.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 59%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/23/2025: up $0.73, $278.28.
LEAN HOGS:The lean hog complex traded back and forth throughout the day but was able to luckily close higher ahead of Friday's end. February lean hogs closed $0.17 higher at $82.30, April lean hogs closed $1.00 higher at $88.20 and June lean hogs closed $0.80 higher at $101.47. However, with the robust developments transpiring in the cattle complex, the lean hog market successfully closed higher, but the market wasn't as lively. Hog prices closed $1.87 lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, with a weighted average of $80.38 on 1,240 head. Pork cutouts totaled 307.14 loads with 263.23 loads of pork cuts and 43.91 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.08, $91.69. Friday's slaughter is projected to be around 485,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 9,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 186,000 head. The CME lean hog index 1/22/2025: up $0.21, $81.93.
MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers rarely support the cash market on Mondays and that's likely to be the case again next week.
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