GENERAL COMMENTS:
All livestock participants are headed into the weekend thankful as demand helped drive the contracts higher yet again. March corn is up 14 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $1.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 696.75 points
Friday's export report shared that beef sales of 5,600 mt for 2025 were primarily to Mexico (2,400 mt), South Korea (1,300 mt) and Japan (900 mt). Pork net sales of 31,000 mt for 2025 were primarily for Mexico (20,600 mt), Japan (3,000 mt) and Colombia (2,400 mt).
From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: February live cattle up $4.72, April live cattle up $3.47; January feeder cattle up $7.53, March feeder cattle up $5.22; February lean hogs up $1.77, April lean hogs up $2.90; March corn up $0.20, May corn up $0.21.
LIVE CATTLE:
Witnessing true price discovery take place in the cattle complex like it is occurring now is something that many producers never even dreamed of as the belief that prices could become this high seemed too farfetched. But yet, here we are – in a point in time where dressed cattle are breaking records at $320, and live cattle sales are breaking records at $200, all while beef demand continues to be the unwavering, iron work horse behind the scenes. All to say, it was another impeccable week where the contracts were wildly supported by traders and the market's fundamentals fueled the market to trade higher and higher. February live cattle closed $1.17 higher at $198.77, April live cattle closed $1.20 higher at $199.47 and June live cattle closed $1.37 higher at $194.10. Throughout the week Northern dressed cattle traded at $320 which is $5.00 higher than last weeks' weighted average, and Southern live cattle traded at mostly $200 to $201 which is $4.00 to $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average. And just to again jog your memory -- these prices are higher than last week's weighted averages which were record breaking.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 105,000 head -- 16,000 head less than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 10,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated to be around 589,000 head -- 83,000 head more than a week ago and 45,000 head more than year ago.
Friday's WASDE report was mostly supportive for the cattle and beef markets in 2025. 2025 beef production jumped by 125 million pounds as steer and heifer slaughter speeds are faster than originally assumed. Although I personally don't agree with their assumption that heifer retention may partly be a factor here as well, that is what USDA officials noted. Steer prices for 2025 are higher than last month's report as steers in the first quarter of 2025 are now expected to average $194 (up $6.00), steers in the second quarter are expected to average $194 (up $5.00), steers in the third quarter are expected to average $196 (up $4.00) and estimates for steer prices in the fourth quarter now sit at $198. Beef imports for 2025 were increased by 60 million pounds -- with supplies notably coming from Oceania and South America. But beef exports for 2025 were unchanged at 2,595,000 pounds.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.06 ($332.84) and select up $5.79 ($314.14) with a movement of 128 loads (77.50 loads of choice, 9.60 loads of select, 12.14 loads of trim and 29.24 loads of ground beef).
MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Until packers get a plethora of cattle bought or drastically cut throughput, feedlot managers will continue to push prices higher and higher.
FEEDER CATTLE:
It was another dynamic day for the feeder cattle complex as the market successfully triumphed and closed fully higher even though the nearby corn contracts closed anywhere from $0.14 to $0.15 higher upon seeing today's WASDE report which shared a steep decline in the 2024-2025 ending corn stock. Nevertheless, the cattle complex's bullish nature again became traders' focus this afternoon ahead of today's close as demand in the countryside is utterly incredible and traders deemed it only appropriate to reflect that on the board as well. January feeders closed $3.12 higher at $272.35, March feeders closed $1.10 higher at $269.40 and April feeders closed $1.10 higher at $270.17. The Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week feeder steers and heifers traded $5.00 to $10.00 higher, steer calves sold $3.00 to $5.00 higher, and heifer calves sold $7.00 to $9.00 stronger. Slaughter cows sold $3.00 to $4.00 higher, and slaughter bulls traded $9.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 58%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/9/2025: up $3.55, $278.55.
LEAN HOGS:
Finally, as if a market couldn't love demand anymore, the lean hog complex has seen a little change in its overall morale thanks to the uptick in demand late this week. To kick the day off the morning's export report was supportive of the hog complex, and thankfully by the day's close traders were pleased to see the carcass price close higher as well. And with the steady and stable gains being seen in the cutouts, traders have elected to continue to move the contracts higher following Wednesday's low which leads one to believe that the market has established a low for the market's current move. February lean hogs closed $0.77 higher at $82.55, April lean hogs closed $1.32 higher at $88.67 and June lean hogs closed $2.12 higher at $102.57. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.15 with a weighted average price of $79.00 on 4,169 head. Pork cutouts totaled 250.14 loads with 228.38 loads of pork cuts and 21.76 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.88, $91.36. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 483,000 head -- 6,000 head more than a week ago and 162,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 167,000 head. The CME lean hog index 1/8/2025: down $0.46, $80.59.
Friday's WASDE Report shared mostly supportive news for the pork and hog markets of 2025. Pork production for 2025 was increased by 140 million pounds as processing speeds have increased. Hog prices in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to average $61 (up $1.00), hog prices in the second quarter are expected to average $66 (up $1.00), hog prices in the third quarter are expected to average $70 (up $2.00) and hog prices for the fourth quarter of 2025 are estimated to be $56.00. Pork imports for 2025 were unchanged (1,140 million pounds) and pork exports for 2025 were also unchanged (7,325 million pounds).
MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. It's likely that packers will pay more attention to the cash market on Tuesday or Wednesday, once they see how aggressive demand is early in the week.
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