GENERAL COMMENTS:
It's a lower trending day for the entire livestock complex as all three of the markets are trading lower. Thursday's move seems to be more technically driven than it is fundamentally driven as pork cutout values are slightly higher and cash cattle prices are trading anywhere from steady to $2.00 higher. March corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $7.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 16.68 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 9,700 mt for 2025 were primarily for Japan (3,600 mt), China (3,500 mt) and South Korea. Pork net sales of 30,300 mt for 2025 were primarily for Mexico (11,700 mt), South Korea (5,000 mt) and South Korea (5,000 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
Upon rallying up to the market's resistance at $198.50, traders have quickly pulled the live cattle contracts back lower, although they're seeing support from stronger cash cattle prices this week. They're not confident that the market's current fundamental support is justifiably strong enough to break the resistance threshold. It's also worth mentioning that last week we saw a big jump in the CFTC data for non-commercial positions, which could be adding to some of the market's pressure as some profit taking could be taking place by traders. February live cattle are down $2.42 at $196.10, April live cattle are down $2.12 at $197.20 and June live cattle are down $1.57 at $191.90. There's been some more cash cattle sales reported this morning where dressed cattle are trading for $322 ($2.00 higher than last week's weighted average) and more live cattle trade is being noted at $201 which is steady/$1.00 higher than last week's weighted average. Asking prices for cattle left to trade are around $202 in the South and $323 plus in the North.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.95 ($333.19) and select up $1.05 ($319.09) with a movement of 58 loads (34.08 loads of choice, 13.73 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 10.49 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
With the live cattle complex ducking its head and running lower, the feeder cattle market didn't take long to change its position either. January feeders are down $2.00 at $273.22, March feeders are down $2.70 at $267.10 and April feeders are down $2.37 at $267.75. This is also a technical decision being made; it's not because of a lack of fundamental support in the countryside.
LEAN HOGS:
Even with an encouraging report of export sales this morning, the lean hog complex is following the cattle contracts lower trend as its market is also trading slightly lower. Thankfully, pork cutout values are still slightly higher, which continues to be an encouraging demand factor that traders won't likely overlook. But today's pork cuts are a little more scattered across the board as the butt is up $4.56 and the loin is up $3.83, but the ham is down $3.03 and the belly is down $2.18. February lean hogs are down $0.90 at $82.22, April lean hogs are down $0.50 at $90.52 and June lean hogs are down $0.25 at $103.90.
The projected lean hog index for 1/15/2025 is up $0.09 at $81.19, and the actual index for 1/14/2025 is up $0.11 at $81.10. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.72 with a weighted average price of $80.44, ranging from $71.00 to $81.00 on 1,630 head and a five-day rolling average of $79.61. Pork cutouts total 188.75 loads with 148.36 loads of pork cuts and 40.39 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.03, $90.86.
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