GENERAL COMMENTS:
If today's trade was a glimpse of what may come in 2025 -- there's not a cowman out there who doesn't wish he had more cows. Both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts traded notably higher as traders continue to believe in the market's long-term bullishness. March corn is up 1 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is up $3.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 151.95 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
What a day, what a day, what a day it was for the live cattle complex! Traders came back from the New Year holiday charged and ready to support the live cattle complex which helped propel the contracts from $1.00 to $2.00 higher. More than anything traders' belief in the market's bullish trajectory seems unquestioned at this point as today's support was overflowing. February live cattle closed $2.00 higher at $193.60, April live cattle closed $1.77 higher at $196.05 and June live cattle closed $1.72 higher at $191.35. The cash cattle trade saw a little movement in the South where live cattle traded for mostly $195 to $196 which is $2.00 to $3.00 higher than last week's weighed average. And although bids were offered throughout the day in the North, dressed sales haven't fully developed yet. Bids of $310 dressed and $198 live were offered throughout the day in Nebraska, but feedlot managers seem confident that if they'll be patient and wait a little longer, packers will up the ante.
Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 125,000 head -- 6,000 head more than a week ago and steady with a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.74 ($323.48) and select down $0.29 ($294.23) with a movement of 116 loads (66.85 loads of choice, 17.81 loads of select, 6.10 loads of trim and 24.91 loads of ground beef).
FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady/somewhat higher. Any more live cattle that sell in the South will likely remain steady with the week's trend, but packers are likely going to need to up their offers in the North if they wish to get any cattle bought.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex was the rallying force behind the momentum in today's cattle market as it jumped anywhere from $2.00 to $3.00 higher. January feeders closed $3.45 higher at $266.47, March feeders closed $3.22 higher at $266.20 and April feeders closed $2.97 higher at $266.52. I highly suggest continuing to watch sales over the next month as it's likely that these prices are going to continue to impress us all as buyers know that the closer we get to spring the more money grass calves are likely to bring. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri compared to their last sale two weeks ago, feeder steers sold $2.00 to $7.00 higher and feeder heifers sold anywhere from $2.00 lower to $10.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 85%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/1/2025: up $0.67, $261.77.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex closed mostly higher even though some of the nearby contracts closed just slightly lower. February lean hogs closed $0.15 lower at $81.15, April lean hogs closed $0.02 lower at $86.55 and June lean hogs closed $0.25 higher at $99.42. It was a little disheartening for the market to see pork cutout values close lower but with a $8.83 decline in the belly -- a lower overall carcass price is expected. Hopefully, Friday's export report will show better demand. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report are unchanged from the day before as pork prices averaged $80.08 on 2,916 head. Pork cutouts totaled 275.96 loads with 249.56 loads of pork cuts and 26.40 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.98, $89.32. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 489,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 12/30/2024: down $0.08, $84.27.
FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, it's likely that packers have fulfilled the vast majority of their needs for the week.
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