GENERAL COMMENTS:
The cattle contracts continued to rally through Thursday's end, but the lean hog contracts weren't as lucky. Still no sizeable sales have developed in the cash cattle market so Friday's market will be busy as not only will market participants need to be looking for sales to develop but they'll also be watching to see what the Cattle on Feed report does. March corn is up 5 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $0.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 408.34 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex again stepped up its game as the market continued to add position onto the already jaw-dropping gains that were made throughout Wednesday's market. Today's move seems to be driven by a number of different factors: traders' belief in the market's strong trajectory, trader's eagerness to continue to advance the complex amid the Dow Jones' rally which signs economic strength and stability and the belief that cash cattle prices will likely trade steady/somewhat higher again this week. February live cattle closed $1.05 higher at $201.10, April live cattle closed $0.95 higher at $200.72 and June live cattle closed $0.80 higher at $195.70. The market's resilient nature mixed with the gains made today have again pushed many of the nearby contracts to new contract high price points. But the unsettling factor about today's trade is the decline in boxed beef prices -- which needs to continue to be monitored as a loss of demand could circumvent the market's aspirations if it were to become a trend. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day as feedlot managers are happy to wait until the week's bitter end for packer interest to improve. Earlier this week there were some live sales marked at $201 to $202 which is $1.00 to $2.00 higher than last week's weighted average, but not enough cattle were traded to say that an accurate trend has been established for the week. Asking prices are noted in the South at $203 plus and at $330 in the North. Do note that Friday afternoon the monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released.
Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 123,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 3,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.06 ($330.96) and select down $0.78 ($317.21) with a movement of 163 loads (87.97 loads of choice, 41.07 loads of select, 22.09 loads of trim and 11.73 loads of ground beef).
FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady/somewhat higher. Given that feedlot managers are simply in a position to roll over their showlists if prices aren't what they yearn for, it's likely that worst-case scenario prices will be steady.
FEEDER CATTLE:
With the technical support of the live cattle complex's higher trend, mixed with the unwavering demand from buyers in the countryside – it was an easy decision for traders to push the feeder cattle contracts higher through Thursday's close. March feeders closed $1.00 higher at $274.07, April feeders closed $1.15 higher at $272.45 and May feeders closed $1.00 higher at $270.47. At the Winter Livestock Auction in Pratt, Kansas, compared to last week feeder steers weighing 500 to 800 pounds sold steady to $10.00 higher on a light test. There weren't enough heifers at auction to depict an accurate test. Slaughter cows sold $6.00 to $8.00 higher and slaughter bulls sold $15.00 to $18.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 77%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/22/2025: down $0.63, $277.55.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex was slightly disappointing to watch as the market lost some of its momentum by the day's end. Some of the nearby contracts were able to keep a mildly higher position through closing time, but by and large, unsettled tones dominated the nearby contracts, and weaker tones dominated the deferred contracts. February lean hogs closed $0.65 higher a $82.15, April lean hogs closed $0.07 lower at $87.20 and June lean hogs closed steady at $100.67. But it was encouraging to see continued pork demand show up in the marketplace as the carcass price closed $1.60 higher -- as the only cut to post a day-over-day decline was the picnic which closed just $0.45 lower. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.99 with a weighted average price of $82.25 on 3,430 head. Pork cutouts totaled 293.47 loads with 268.15 loads of pork cuts and 25.32 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.60, $91.77. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 472,000 head -- 10,000 head less than a week ago and 6,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 1/21/2025: up $0.26, $81.72.
FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, it's most likely that the bulk of this week's cash hog trade is done with.
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