GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is trading mixed into Friday's noon hour as the live cattle contracts feel supported by stronger boxed beef prices and the week's higher trend in the cash market. The feeder cattle complex is mixed as corn prices trade higher, and last but not least, the lean hog market is continuing to push higher as it's thankful for the uptick in pork demand late this week. March corn is up 11 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $0.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 658.48 points.
Friday's export report shared that beef sales of 5,600 mt for 2025 were primarily to Mexico (2,400 mt), South Korea (1,300 mt) and Japan (900 mt). Pork net sales of 31,000 mt for 2025 were primarily for Mexico (20,600 mt), Japan (3,000 mt) and Colombia (2,400 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
It's been another prosperous day for the live cattle complex as the contracts are continuing to rally thanks to the tremendous demand in which the week has seen from both boxed beef prices and the fed cash cattle market. February live cattle are up $0.72 at $198.32, April live cattle are up $0.62 at $198.87 and June live cattle are up $0.45 at $193.20. A few new bids have been noted in the South at $200 -- but at this point no new trade has developed following Thursday's business. So far this week, Southern live cattle have traded at mostly $200 which is $4.00 higher than last week's weighted average and yet again another new all-time record high. And dressed cattle sales in the North have been mostly marked at $320, which is $5.00 higher than last week's weighted average and another new all-time market high.
Friday's WASDE report was mostly supportive for the cattle and beef markets in 2025. 2025 beef production jumped by 125 million pounds as steer and heifer slaughter speeds are faster than originally assumed. Although I personally don't agree with their assumption that heifer retention may partly be a factor here as well, that is what USDA officials noted. Steer prices for 2025 are higher than last month's report as steers in the first quarter of 2025 are now expected to average $194 (up $6.00), steers in the second quarter are expected to average $194 (up $5.00), steers in the third quarter are expected to average $196 (up $4.00) and estimates for steer prices in the fourth quarter now sit at $198. Beef imports for 2025 were increased by 60 million pounds -- with supplies notably coming from Oceania and South America. But beef exports for 2025 were unchanged at 2,595,000 pounds.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.34 ($333.12) and select up $5.22 (313.57) with a movement of 68 loads (31.03 loads of choice, 6.17 loads of select, 6.13 loads of trim and 24.23 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex is trading mostly lower into Friday's noon hour as traders take note of the aggressive rally in corn prices. Traders quickly saw the lower-than-expected decline in the 2024-2025 ending corn stocks at 1.54 billion bushels, which is down 198 million bushels from last month's report, and it's somewhat taken the market by surprise. But thankfully, the strong buyer demand in the countryside is still helping the nearby feeder cattle contracts keep their momentum, although some of the deferred are reacting poorly. January feeders are up $2.95 at $272.17, March feeders are up $0.35 at $268.65 and April feeders are up $0.40 at $269.47.
LEAN HOGS:
The announcement that pork production in 2025 is forecasted to be stronger than December's estimates combined with the note of higher pork cutout values is all helping push the lean hog contracts higher into Friday's noon hour. February lean hogs are up $0.35 at $82.12, April lean hogs are up $1.15 at $88.47 and June lean hogs are up $1.17 at $101.62. Day by day, the further the market moves away from the technical bottom established earlier this week, the more likely it's becoming that a near-term bottom has been established for the market and higher trends could now become the norm if pork demand remains supportive.
The projected lean hog index for 1/9/2025 is down $0.16 at $80.43, and the actual index for 1/8/2025 is down $0.46 at $80.59. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.37 with a weighted average price of $77.98, ranging from $70.00 to $81.00 on 721 head with a five-day rolling average of $78.76. Pork cutouts total 180.32 loads with 159.70 loads of pork cuts and 20.62 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.54, $92.02.
Friday's WASDE Report shared mostly supportive news for the pork and hog markets of 2025. Pork production for 2025 was increased by 140 million pounds as processing speeds have increased. Hog prices in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to average $61 (up $1.00), hog prices in the second quarter are expected to average $66 (up $1.00), hog prices in the third quarter are expected to average $70 (up $2.00) and hog prices for the fourth quarter of 2025 are estimated to be $56.00. Pork imports for 2025 were unchanged (1,140 million pounds) and pork exports for 2025 were also unchanged (7,325 million pounds).
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