GENERAL COMMENTS:
It's a mixed morning for the livestock complex as the lean hog contracts have found a little support, but the cattle contracts continue to be pressured. And with last week's cash cattle trade sending 97% of its cattle to the nearby delivery, prices could likely be lower again this week. May corn is down 13 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $1.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 43.22 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
As many assumed, the live cattle complex is following in Friday's wake as the market continues to trade lower. April live cattle are down $0.62 at $192.02, June live cattle are down $1.00 at $187.77 and August live cattle are down $0.90 at $187.02. And now that traders have seemed to agree on the fact that the market is at risk for even more downside potential, everyone involved in the cattle complex is gritting their teeth wondering where the next major support plane could be. From a sheer technical standpoint, the next major support plane for the spot April contract is around $188. This week's showlists are higher in Kansas, but lower in Texas, and Nebraska/Colorado.
Last week Southern live cattle traded at $197 which is $2.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at $313 which is also $2.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 55,893 head. Of that, 97% (54,475 head) were committed to the market's nearby delivery, while the remaining 3% (1,418 head) were committed to the deferred delivery option.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.30 ($313.13) and select down $0.24 ($301.81) with a movement of 51 loads (28.51 loads of choice, 10.14 loads of select, 5.07 loads of trim and 7.25 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Upon seeing the live cattle complex continue in its downward trend, the feeder cattle contracts are also trading fully lower despite the significant gains the market made just last week. March feeders are down $1.30 at $273.67, April feeders are down $1.57 at $271.42 and May feeders are down $1.42 at $269.62. Without some support from the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle market will likely remain on edge and skeptical of trading any higher in the immediate future.
LEAN HOGS:
After last week's sharp decline, the lean hog contracts are finally finding some technical footing in the futures complex. April lean hogs are up $0.32 at $84.00, June lean hogs are up $0.75 at $95.77 and July lean hogs are up $0.95 at $97.65. What's especially crazy about the lean hog market's developments this morning is the sharp rally in carcass prices, which is being wildly inflated by the belly's $31.89 jump. The ham is up $4.75, and the butt is up $3.51, which are both helping push the carcass price higher, but the belly's rally is whiplash worthy.
The projected lean hog index for 2/28/2025 is up $0.50 at $89.94, and the actual index for 2/27/2025 is up $0.05 at $89.44. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 230 head have traded today and that the market's rolling average now sits at $90.23. Pork cutouts total 148.63 loads with 134.50 loads of pork cuts and 14.13 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $7.06, $105.48.
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