GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex ended mostly lower Tuesday afternoon as traders yearn to see greater fundamental support. Still no cash cattle trade has developed, and trade will likely be delayed until Thursday or Friday. March corn is steady and March soybean meal is up $3.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 52.27 points and the NASDAQ is down 136.20 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
All in all, it was a quiet, mundane day for the live cattle complex as traders didn't feel comfortable advancing the contracts ahead of seeing what this week's fed cash cattle market was going to accomplish. So they simply elected to let the live cattle contracts drift mildly lower through the day's end. February live cattle closed $0.20 lower at $239.10, April live cattle closed $0.77 lower at $237.42 and June live cattle closed $0.52 lower at $233.80. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day, and at this point, bids and asking prices remain elusive, too. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 116,000 head, 1,000 head more than a week ago and 6,000 head less than a year ago.
Tuesday's WASDE report shared a fruitful outlook for the cattle and beef markets of 2026. Beef production for 2026 was increased by 185 million pounds as fed cattle slaughter is expected to increase, cow slaughter is expected to increase, and carcass weights are obviously higher. I personally question what leads them to believe fed cattle and cow slaughter speeds are going to increase -- as the entire industry knows supplies are historically thin, and that's not expected to change in 2026, and potentially not in 2027 either. But as always, time will tell. The quarterly steer price projections were bullish as every single quarter for 2026 was increased from January's estimates. Steers in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $238 (up $6.00 from last month), steers in the second quarter are expected to average $238 (up $4.00 from last month), steers in the third quarter are expected to average $240 (up $3.00 from last month) and steers in the fourth quarter are expected to average $245 (up $5.00 from last month). Beef imports for 2026 were increased by 50 million pounds and beef exports for 2026 remained steady.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $0.21 ($367.55) and select down $2.45 ($362.90) with a movement of 111 loads (82.25 loads of choice, 8.55 loads of select, 6.09 loads of trim and 13.90 loads of ground beef).
WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. With fed cash cattle supplies thin, packers will likely end up paying more money in this week's market again.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex was trading mixed into Tuesday's noon hour, with the market's nearby contracts following the same trend as the live cattle contracts, but at least the deferred feeder cattle contracts were keeping their higher trend as traders seemed committed to focusing on the market's limited supplies for all of 2026. But as the day passed on, traders grew less and less committed to the bullish mindset and ultimately let the feeder cattle contracts drift lower through the day's end. At Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week, steers under 750 pounds sold $5.00 to $20.00 higher, with heavier weights traded $5.00 to $10.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold $5.00 to $22.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 64%. The CME feeder cattle index 2/9/2026: down $0.83, $373.83.
LEAN HOGS:
It was another lower-waning day for the lean hog complex as the market continues to work its way further from the technical resistance that was established just a week ago. And not helping matters this afternoon, pork cutout values closed lower, too. February lean hogs closed $0.25 lower at $86.85, April lean hogs closed $1.22 lower at $95.50 and June lean hogs closed $0.90 lower at $108.90. Hog prices on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report averaged $84.92 on 1,585 head. Pork cutouts totaled 282.33 loads with 244.78 loads of pork cuts and 37.54 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.37, $95.46. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 494,000 head, 17,000 head more than a week ago and 4,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 2/6/2026: down $0.11, $86.46.
Tuesday's WASDE report shared a positive outlook for the hog and pork markets of 2026. Pork production for 2026 was increased by 60 million pounds as both slaughter speeds and carcass weights are heavier than originally anticipated. The quarterly price projections for hogs were bullish, as well as every single quarter saw an increase from January's estimates. Hogs in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $65 (up $1.00 from last month), hogs in the second quarter are expected to average $73 (up $3.00 from last month), hogs in the third quarter are expected to average $75 (up $3.00 from last month) and hogs in the fourth quarter are expected to average $63 (up $2.00 from last month). Pork imports for 2026 remained steady, but pork exports increased by 50 million pounds.
WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. With pork cutout values a tick lower, it's not likely that packers will be overly aggressive in the cash market on Wednesday.
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