GENERAL COMMENTS:
Livestock futures have remained lightly traded through the entire week, which is not unusual for a Fourth of July Holiday week. With markets closed Friday in celebration of Independence Day, traders are focusing on trade early next week. It is expected that the overall volume should return to a more normal routine. But the uncertainty of whether this will bring aggressive buyer support back to the livestock market, especially the cattle complex, may keep many traders hesitant to actively step back into the market. Nearby live cattle and feeder cattle posted sharp double-digit losses for the week, focusing on the demand side of the market during the last half of the summer and fall months. Lean hog futures posted strong late-week gains, but most of this support is likely due to previous market pressure and end-of-the-week short covering rather than changing market conditions. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $1.45 with a weighted average of $95.47 on 916 hogs. December corn closed down 3/4 at $4.415 and December soybean meal closed down $0.30 at $304.4. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 594.83 at 52,900.07.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle futures posted another discouraging market close Thursday, with late-day pressure posting losses of $2 to $2.50 per cwt through the entire complex. All contracts are now comfortably traded well under $240 per cwt, with August closing at $239.22 per cwt, while the rest of the complex has now moved below $235 per cwt. Boxed beef values posted strong late-week weakness, but it is uncertain just how much additional pressure will be seen in wholesale meat markets in the next week, given the shift lower in futures prices and cash trade. Cash cattle trade continued to develop during the day Thursday. Given the upcoming holiday weekend and trade that started to develop Wednesday, it appears the bulk of business is essentially completed for the week, with Northern dressed deals marked at mostly $403, $5 lower than last week's weighted averages. Southern live deals came in at $255, $3 lower than the prior week's weighted averages. August live cattle closed $2.60 lower at $239.225, October live cattle closed $2.43 lower at $234.3 and December live cattle closed $2.35 lower at $234.225.
Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 109,000 head, steady with a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $4.19 ($387.07) and select down $2.26 ($367.43) with a movement of 111.62 loads (83.98 loads of choice, 10.71 loads of select, 8.25 loads of trim and 8.68 loads of ground beef).
MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady with Thursday, Most of the expected business needing to be done for the week is already in the books. Additional trade that may develop is likely to fit into the range seen over the last couple of days.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle futures posted additional sharp market losses, with limited buyer interest anywhere in sight on the eve of the Independence Day Holiday weekend. Although prices hovered within moderate to firm losses through most of the session, late-day selling pressure developed, with prices falling nearly $4 per cwt at the end of the week. Spot month August contracts fell $12.68 per cwt through the week, creating additional concerns about further market pressure that could develop during early July. There still remains hope that the lack of market activity during this past week accelerated the downward shift, which will keep traders and market watchers closely monitoring opening market moves Monday morning. Futures trade will remain closed Friday due to the Fourth of July Holiday. August feeders closed $3.53 lower at $360.625, September feeders closed $3.70 lower at $358.475 and October feeders closed $3.73 lower at $355.575. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for June 30: down $5.74, $371.25.
LEAN HOGS:
Lean hog bounced higher in nearby summer and fall contracts Thursday, although the tone of the market remains extremely weak. As stated over the last couple of days, August contracts are showing the most price support, but August contracts also remain extremely lightly traded with limited open interest compared to surrounding contracts. This is limiting the impact of current price moves based on the lack of contracts that are impacted by this move. July contracts posted a 50-cent per cwt increase, moving to $93.85 per cwt. This price is still over $9 per cwt below the 40-day moving average. And dangerously close to testing the April 2025 contract low. A move below this low at $91.80 in the near future could quickly spark significant technical pressure. July lean hogs closed $0.50 higher at $93.85, August lean hogs closed $1.70 higher at $98.75 and October lean hogs closed $0.53 higher at $82.025. Thursday's hog slaughter is estimated at 455,000 head, 11,000 head less than a week ago and 52,000 head more than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 232.61 loads with 208.93 loads of pork cuts and 23.68 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.35 at $96.06. The CME Lean Hog Index for June 30: up $0.24, $91.48.
MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady to $1 lower. Cash market weakness seen through the last half of the week is expected to continue to be seen Monday. Limited processing speeds will be seen over the next few days with plants on holiday schedules.
No comments:
Post a Comment