GENERAL COMMENTS:
Again, Wednesday, it's a mixed market for the livestock complex as the cattle futures are trading lower but the lean hog contracts are trading higher. Some light cash cattle trade has been reported in Nebraska on Wednesday, but not enough have sold to say any sort of a trend has been established yet. December corn is up 13 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $3.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 32.28 points and NASDAQ is up 139.59 points.
Wednesday's WASDE report shared a mostly bearish outlook for the cattle and beef markets of 2026. Beef production for 2026 was decreased by 321 million pounds as fed cattle slaughter speeds are lower than anticipated, and the market isn't seeing as many cows slaughtered either. The quarterly steer price projections for 2026 and 2027 were disheartening compared to last month's estimates as steers in the third quarter are expected to average $242 (down $13.00 from last month); steers in the fourth quarter of 2026 are expected to average $245 (down $10 from last month); steers in the first quarter of 2027 are anticipated to average $245 (down $5.00 from last month's estimates); and steer prices in the second quarter of 2027 are expected to average $250 (down $5.00 from last month's estimate). Cattle exports for 2026 are unchanged from last month, but cattle imports for 2026 are increased by 73 million pounds with the border reopening to Mexican cattle on Aug. 24.
Wednesday's WASDE report shared a mixed outlook for the pork and hog markets for 2026. Pork production for 2026 was lowered by 79 million pounds as slaughter speeds are lower and carcass weights are lighter. Quarterly hog prices saw mostly supportive news as hogs in the third quarter are expected to average $70 (up $1.00 from last month's report); hogs in the fourth quarter of 2026 are expected to average $59 (up $1.00 from last month's estimates); hogs in the first quarter of 2027 are expected to average $62 (unchanged from last month); and hogs in the second quarter of 2027 are expected to average $68 (unchanged from last month). Pork imports were increased by one million pounds and pork exports were 62 million pounds for 2026.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex is lower at Wednesday's noon hour as the market doesn't know if the fundamental support it had hoped for will surface or not. There's not been a great test yet in the fed cash cattle market, but the prices the market has seen have been lower. August live cattle are down $1.77 at $230.97, October live cattle are down $2.12 at $224.20 and December live cattle are down $2.60 at $223.10. Some light cash cattle trade has been noted in Nebraska at $368, which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average; but there's not been enough cattle traded to say that an accurate trend has developed just yet. It is worth noting that news is spreading of a major packer in Kansas cutting production hours this week. If true, that will affect this week's fed market. No other trade has been noted.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.47 ($373.78) and select up $0.40 ($350.20) with a movement of 55 loads (30.64 loads of choice, 10.00 loads of select, 5.66 loads of trim and 8.74 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
And as one would logically expect, as the live cattle complex trades lower, so do the feeder cattle contracts. August feeders are down $3.72 at $346.45, September feeders are down $5.52 at $339.72 and October feeders are down $6.10 at $330.60. It's unlikely the market is going to turn higher ahead of the day's close, meaning this $3.00 to $6.00 decline will likely remain through the day's end.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex is trading higher into Wednesday's noon hour, solely on the support of technical traders as pork cutout values are lower and so are cash prices. October lean hogs are up $0.85 at $84.17, December lean hogs are up $1.07 at $75.20 and February lean hogs are up $1.00 at $78.27. The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 8/11/2026 is down $0.05 at $95.89, and the actual index for 8/10/2026 is down $0.15 at $95.94. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.11 with a weighted average price of $95.85, ranging from $90.00 to $97.50 on 635 head and a five-day rolling average of $97.04. Pork cutouts total 166.09 loads with 146.46 loads of pork cuts and 19.62 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.19, $101.29.
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