Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Market Remains Well Supported

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mixed with the cattle contracts able to maintain their rally through the day's end, but the nearby lean hog contracts are still desperate for demand. No trade developed throughout the cash cattle market. March corn is up 1/4 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is down $3.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 178.20 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was another powerful day for the live cattle complex as the market was well supported by traders' continued efforts as rallying, bullish fundamental tones continue to encourage the market to trade higher and higher. It's too early in the week for any cash cattle trade to have developed, but it's assumed that again this week prices will trade higher as feedlot managers are in a position where if they don't get the prices they yearn for, they can simply roll over their showlists to a new week. February live cattle closed $0.37 higher at $195.57, April live cattle closed $0.50 higher at $197.77 and June live cattle closed $0.55 higher at $192.77. Beef demand has been incredibly strong, but the choice cut did close lower this afternoon which will need to be something we monitor in the upcoming days to see if consumers are waving their white flag saying prices are getting too high, or if today's lower end was just a blip. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 126,000 head -- incomparable to the previous week but 42,000 more than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $1.31 ($325.79) and select up $2.10 ($305.43) with a movement of 156 loads (97.07 loads of choice, 35.47 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 23.50 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. Given that feedlot managers can simply roll over their showlists is prices aren't what they desire, it's likely that prices will be at least steady again this week if not higher.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex continued to trudge higher throughout the entire day as the market is emboldened thanks to the strong buy-in from traders and cattlemen alike that the market's trajectory is undoubtedly higher thanks to this unique situation where supplies are tight, and demand is unwavering. January feeders closed $2.10 higher at $268.40, March feeders closed $2.37 higher at $267.92 and April feeders closed $2.27 higher at $268.47. Even though pockets of the US are facing colder temperatures and more moisture this week, feeder cattle demand in sale barns across the nation hasn't wavered whatsoever -- as evidenced by the CME feeder cattle index. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma compared to last week feeder steers and steer calves traded $2.00 to $6.00 higher, feeder heifers sold $3.00 to $4.00 higher and heifer vales sold $2.00 to $7.00 stronger. There were times throughout the sale that feeders and calves brought as much as $15.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 54%. The CME feeder cattle index 1/6/2025: up $3.66, $272.29.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex rounded out the day mixed as the nearby contracts closed slightly lower but the deferred contracts were able to close mildly higher. February lean hogs closed $0.47 lower at $79.17, April lean hogs closed $0.15 lower at $85.72 and June lean hogs closed $0.15 higher at $99.35. And while it's positive for the day that pork cutout values closed noticeably higher, traders are going to need to see consistent buyer support before they'll feel confident in the demand facet of the market and begin to advance the nearby contracts. Hog prices closed $0.76 lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, with a weighted average price of $78.89 on 2,965 head. Pork cutouts totaled 435.57 loads with 388.04 loads of pork cuts and 47.52 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.57, $88.40. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 487,000 head -- incomparable to the previous week but 112,000 head more than a year ago. The CME feeder cattle index 1/3/2025: down $1.11, $82.01.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. It's likely that packers still need to buy some more hogs in the cash market, but they won't likely do so to the degree in which prices would trade substantially higher.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Market Continues to Grind Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex is again trading mixed as the cattle contracts continue to etch higher and higher, and everyone is collectively seeing the same writing on the wall -- a bullish cattle market trajectory for 2025 as supplies are low and demand is high. Meanwhile the lean hog complex is enduring a disappointing day as once again the contracts are trading lower. March corn is down 2 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $6.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 56.62 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The momentum behind the live cattle complex's rally is unwavering as the market continues to grind higher, day in and day out. With the help of stronger boxed beef prices, the live cattle complex is confidently charging higher even though the market has yet to see what cash cattle prices are going to do this week. It's assumed that with packers still being short bought prices will again be higher this week, but as always, time will tell. No bids or asking prices are noted yet, and trade will likely be delayed until Thursday or Friday again this week as feedlot managers are content to wait as long as they need until packers pay the prices they seek. February live cattle are up $0.57 at $195.77, April live cattle are up $0.52 at $197.80 and June live cattle are up $0.35 at $192.55.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.56 ($329.66) and select up $0.74 ($304.07) with a movement of 71 loads (40.50 loads of choice, 16.50 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 14.43 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is leading the cattle complex's charge this morning as the market initially gapped higher at Tuesday's start and hasn't looked back since. January feeders are up $1.25 at $267.55, March feeders are up $1.55 at $267.05 and April feeders are up $1.37 at $267.57. Demand has been incredible already this week in the countryside as buyers know that while it may cost them some money to feed grass calves until this spring, the closer we get to turn-out season the more expensive those types of cattle will become.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex has unfortunately had another disappointing day thus far as the market hasn't been able to sustain Monday's close. As the market continues to dwindle lower, traders and hog producers alike are hoping that demand will surface at some point and put another bottom in the market for the near term, but at this point that hope hasn't come to fruition as market enthusiasts need higher prices and long for consistency. February lean hogs are down $0.80 at $78.85, April lean hogs are down $0.55 at $85.32 and June lean hogs are down $0.30 at $98.90.

The projected lean hog index for 1/6/2025 is down $0.42 at $81.59, and the actual index for 1/3/2025 is down $1.11 at $82.01. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 190 head have traded and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $79.56. Pork cutouts total 253.22 loads with 227.40 loads of pork cuts and 25.82 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.40, $89.23.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Traders Should Remain Aggressive Buyers

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures did not spend any time in negative territory Monday, but they also could not hold the highs of the day. Live and feeder cattle futures closed about $1.00 off their highs as some traders became nervous at the lofty levels. Feedlots have set their sights on higher cash this week as strong demand keeps packers aggressive. The weekly weighted averages for both live and dressed cattle set new records last week. The exception was the weekly average for dressed cattle in Kansas. Boxed beef prices were higher with choice up $1.86 and select up a whopping $6.61, likely assuring higher cash this week as demand remains exceptional. The Commitments of Traders report showed funds reducing their long position in live cattle by 898 contracts to a net-long of 131,198 contracts. The funds increased their long futures position in feeder cattle by 1,600 contracts, bringing their net-long position to 20,344.

Hog futures exhibited resilience Monday, rejecting the lows and closed with positive gains in all contracts except the nearby February. Traders could not hold a premium in the February contract on the lean hog index's continued weakness and cutouts' weakness. Cutout values were down $1.71 on Monday at $87.83. This continued pressure is wearing on the resolve of bullish traders and has them second-guessing the strength of demand in the near term. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed a slight gain of $0.06. Packers are expected to be more aggressive Tuesday, resulting in higher cash. The Commitments of Traders report showed fund traders selling 13,110 futures contracts, bringing their net-long futures position to 103,907 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	New highs keep the uptrend alive and traders trading with the trend. This is being supported by strong underlying cash cattle trade.	1)	Cattle futures are overbought and a price correction could take place as traders decide to take profits.
2)	Boxed beef prices continue to show incredible strength with the demand for beef not slowing down. Food prices continue to increase but consumers are not cutting out beef in their diets.	2)	High prices will not last forever. The cattle market is trying to find a level at which demand will slow.
3)	It seems traders continue to hold the idea of stronger pork prices. Hog futures have been holding well despite the weakness of cutouts.	3)	The weakness of pork cutouts remains an anchor on the market. The lack of solid demand leaves the potential for further weakness.
4)	Hog slaughter should move back to a regular pace now that the holidays are over. Packers should be aggressively looking for hogs Tuesday.	4)	Packers continue to find plentiful hogs to fill their slaughter needs without difficulty. This limits their aggressiveness in the cash market.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Higher Tones Summarize Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex closed mostly higher Monday afternoon as the cattle contracts continued to rally throughout the day and the lean hog contracts seem to have found some technical footing after being challenged over the past week. No bids or asking prices have surfaced in the cash market. March corn is up 7 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $1.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 25.57 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex showed its relentless rallying strength again through Monday's market as traders collectively moved the contracts higher through the day's close. Upon seeing the new record high prices that were scored last week in the cash market, traders couldn't seem but to help themselves in advancing the market as bullish tones have completely overtaken the marketplace. February live cattle closed $1.15 higher at $195.20, April live cattle closed $1.27 higher at $197.27 and June live cattle closed $1.55 higher at $192.22. No bids or asking prices have surfaced yet, but it's assumed that cattle will trade higher again this week as packers are still short bought. New showlists appear to be higher in all three major feeding areas. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 109,000 head -- 14,000 head less than a week ago and 6,000 head more than a year ago.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $196 to $197, which is $4.00 to $5.00 higher than the previous week, and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $312 to $315 which is $5.00 to $8.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Last week packers bought 85,514 head in the cash market. Of last week's purchase, 77% (65,944 head) were committed to the market's nearby delivery, while the remaining 23% (19,570 head) were committed to the market's deferred delivery.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $1.86 ($327.10) and select up $6.61 ($303.33) with a movement of 146 loads (82.83 loads of choice, 36.57 loads of select, 5.25 loads of trim and 21.27 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Higher. It's assumed that cattle will again trade higher this week as feedlot managers will likely just roll over their showlists into the next upcoming week if prices aren't what they desire.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex rallied alongside the live cattle market as the industry's bullish outlook is helping to increase flame feeder cattle prices. Some sale barns noted challenges of snow and cold temperatures, but prices were still extremely high as internet action at the barns was strong. January feeders closed $1.47 higher at $266.30, March feeders closed $1.37 higher at $265.55 and April feeders closed $1.80 higher at $266.20. The CME feeder cattle index 1/3/2025: up $2.87, $268.63.

LEAN HOGS:

Believe it or not, the lean hog complex may have found some technical footing in Monday's market as most of the complex closed slightly higher Monday afternoon. The spot February contract was the only contract month to close lower, and that's likely because of the continued pressure that pork cutout values are seeing. February lean hogs closed $1.12 lower at $79.65, April lean hogs closed $0.10 higher at $85.87 and June lean hogs closed $0.70 higher at $99.20. The butt's $3.56 decline combined with the ham's $3.12 drop was enough to pull the carcass price lower, but the belly did close $5.81 higher. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.06 with a weighted average price of $79.65 on 2,701 head. Pork cutouts totaled 413.25 loads with 354.44 loads of pork cuts and 58.80 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.71, $87.83. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 447,000 head -- 34,000 head less than a week ago and 21,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 1/2/2025: down $0.87, $83.12.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady/somewhat higher. Packers will likely need to buy some inventory this week and although prices are hit and miss in terms of cutout values.