Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Plummet Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Feeder cattle futures quickly led the cattle market for another day of sharp losses as midweek buyer support was unable to be sustained. Traders continue to focus on any fear of tariff announcements and allowing Mexican cattle to reenter the US market. The volatility in the market continues to be the main driver of both live cattle and feeder cattle prices with markets quickly eroding from last week's highs and trying to reestablish any sense of market support at current prices. Hog futures were steady to fractionally higher in limited trade Thursday. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon hog report, down $0.48 with a weighted average of $86.23 on 1,502 hogs. March corn closed up 2 at $4.953 and March soybean meal closed down $1.90 at $306.4. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 125.65 at 44,747.63.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle prices followed the feeder cattle market lower as traders quickly erased any midweek support that developed across the complex. February futures hovered above $200 per cwt with a $2.97 per cwt loss, although April and June futures closed with more aggressive losses, falling $4 to $4.50 per cwt lower during the session. April futures have now fallen over $10 per cwt from last week's highs and have now moved to the 40-day moving average. This move is expected to be viewed as technically bearish for the live cattle complex which has been on an active upward price shift over the past two months. The inability to stabilize prices at these levels is expected to spark further market liquidation in the coming days. Fundamentally, the market should resist additional aggressive losses, but technical momentum seems to be the main driver of this market at this point. Cash cattle markets have seen some light trade reported in the South at $206, about $2 lower than last week's weighted averages. Some asking prices remain firm around $208 in the South and $329-plus in the North. Yesterday a light scattered trade was reported in parts of the North with dressed deals at mostly $238, $1 lower than the prior week's weighted average. A few live deals were reported in Kansas at mostly $205. That is about $3 lower than the previous week's weighted average. It is expected that additional trade will still develop before the end of the week, but the direction of early-day beef values and movement on the futures trade could have a significant impact on additional cash trade volume and price movement. February live cattle closed $3.00 higher at $200.05 February live cattle closed $2.98 lower at $200.625, April live cattle closed $4.53 lower at $196.775 and June live cattle closed $4.08 lower at $191.825. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head, 4,000 head less than a week ago and 5,000 head less than a year ago. 

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $1.36 ($323.98) and select up $0.44 ($314.77) with a movement of 113.71 loads (68.93 loads of choice, 23.31 loads of select, 9.45 loads of trim and 12.02 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady. Additional cash cattle trade is expected to be seen Friday. With the limited trade reported Thursday at generally $2 per cwt lower than last week, additional price moves may start steady with the trade already developed for the week. This would be generally $2 to $3 per cwt lower than last week's levels. However, movement in futures trade and beef values will likely heavily impact cash trade direction and activity levels at the end of the week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures quickly gave back any support seen over the past couple of days with prices hovering from $5 to $6 per cwt lower in nearby contracts through most of the session. Traders remain extremely cautious of not only import and export concerns but given the aggressive and decisive shift lower from all-time highs seen last week, traders are concerned that technical market factors have quickly changed despite the fundamental support that still remains through the market. Traders are now having to wait to see what cash and beef prices will do in the coming days, which will help to get a better sense if this panic selling has been overdone or is the beginning of additional longer-term concerns. Traders will closely monitor both early morning trade Friday as well as closing prices Friday as they will then have the opportunity to digest the volatile shift over the weekend. March feeders closed $5.43 lower at $265.3, April feeders closed $5.48 lower at $265 and May feeders closed $5.10 lower at $263.7. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for February 4: down $1.39, $277.64.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures quickly stabilized Thursday following additional price volatility in the cattle complex. Spot February futures were trading within a single-digit range most of the session but closed unchanged. Other nearby contracts posted steady to 20-cent gains, but given the wild market moves over the last week, this seems to indicate general market inactivity. Lean hog futures have bounced back from early week losses, but the concern of how overall demand and long-term export markets will react long-term is still keeping traders on edge. February lean hogs closed steady, April lean hogs closed $0.20 higher at $91.75 and May lean hogs closed $0.10 higher at $95.825. Thursday's hog slaughter is estimated at 481,000 head, 2,000 head less than a week ago and 11,000 head less than a year ago. Pork Cutouts totaled 248.34 loads with 200.75 loads of pork cuts and 47.59 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $1.81 at $95.64. The CME Lean Hog Index for February 4: up $0.52, $84.60.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Early cash hog bids are expected to be generally steady Friday morning. The stability in futures trade despite wild moves in cattle markets and moderate shifts in pork values could limit any downward pressure of initial cash bids.

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Feeder Cattle Futures Tumble Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Sharp losses have once again developed in live cattle and feeder cattle futures as traders continue to wrestle with the impact of potential tariff talk and trade shifts, combined with the overall potential for additional cattle moving into the system from Mexico. Feeder cattle futures are leading the downward shift, with nearby contracts posting $5 to $6 per cwt losses at midday, creating the expectation for further losses before the closing bell. Hog futures remain mixed in a narrow range, with the focus squarely on cattle market direction. March corn is up 1/2 at $4.938 and March soybean meal is down $3.40 at $304.9. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 183.38 at 44,689.90.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures have erased any support seen midweek, with active triple-digit losses seen in all contract months. April futures have posted the most aggressive losses during morning trade, with prices over $4 per cwt lower at midday. The shift lower is now testing April and June futures at the 40-day moving average level, which may create additional concern through the upcoming days and weeks. In the last week, live cattle futures have fallen over $11 per cwt from all-time highs, creating a concern that traders are now searching for a sense of market support, which, after Thursday's moves, could be hard to solidify in the near future. The continued shift lower in cash cattle prices and beef values is adding to the overall futures market weakness. Even though cattle and beef supplies remain limited, the momentum seen through December and January has quickly evaporated in the first week of February. Cash cattle markets are starting to unfold with light trade developing in the South this morning at $206, about $2 lower than last week's weighted averages. Some asking prices remain firm around $208 in the South, and $329-plus in the North. Wednesday, a light scattered trade was reported in parts of the North with dressed deals at mostly $238, $1 lower than the prior week's weighted average. A few live deals were reported in Kansas at mostly $205. That is about $3 lower than the previous week's weighted average.

For the period of Jan. 24 to Jan. 30, 2025, beef net sales of 24,900 mt for 2025 primarily for South Korea (3,900 mt), Japan (3,300 mt), China (2,500 mt), the Dominican Republic (1,800 mt) and Ecuador (1,800 mt), were offset by reductions for the United Kingdom (100 MT). Exports of 19,800 mt were primarily to South Korea (5,700 mt), Japan (5,000 mt), China (3,700 mt), Mexico (1,500 mt) and Taiwan (1,400 mt). February live cattle are $2.35 lower at $201.25, April live cattle are $4.03 lower at $197.275, June live cattle are $3.50 lower at $192.40.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $1.89 ($323.45) and select up $0.31 ($314.64) with a movement of 81.81 loads (46.91 loads of choice, 19.58 loads of select, 9.37 loads of trim and 5.95 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures continue to weaken as the morning continues with nearby futures holding $5 to $6 per cwt losses with additional late day pressure likely to develop across the complex. Although, the most aggressive losses are seen in nearby March and April futures, all contract months are taking significant hits with concerns surrounding the opening of import levels of cattle from Mexico and how this will change the tight supply of beef currently being factored into prices. March feeder cattle futures have once again now broken through the 40-day moving average price, after falling over $14 per cwt from last week's highs. The inability to sustain the recent market support could leave markets technically unsupported with little, short-term direction developing from cattle market fundamentals. Feeder cattle sales at the Southern Oklahoma Livestock Auction posted total receipts of 1,787, nearly 800 less than last week with prices generally $5 to $12 per cwt lower than last week's levels. March feeders are $5.70 lower at $265.025, April feeders are $5.65 lower at $264.825 and May feeders are $5.15 lower at $263.65.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures remain at a standstill Thursday morning with very limited new direction developing in the complex. Nearby futures are holding single-digit gains with lightly traded May contracts posting a 50-cent loss. The limited direction in cash market activity through the morning as well as aggressive selling pressure in cattle markets is allowing for short-term stability to be seen across all lean hog futures trade. Despite early week market weakness in the complex, the hog market has regained strong fundamental buyer support with contracts trading at or near short-term highs after pulling back from the early week losses. February lean hogs are $0.08 higher at $86.725, April lean hogs are $0.08 higher at $91.625 and May lean hogs are $0.50 lower at $95.225.

Hog prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report. Pork Cutouts totaled 145.23 loads with 118.46 loads of pork cuts and 26.77 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.48 at $92.86.

Thursday Morning Livestock Market Update - Early Cash Cattle Trade Points to Lower Prices

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures pushed higher after a week of aggressive liquidation. This was good as it corrected an overbought market. The fundamentals did not change as cattle supplies are tight and will remain that way for a time. Concern over the impact of tariffs on demand left traders uneasy and triggered the selling. Much of that has now been digested. However, the recent pressure on futures and the uncertainty in the market may result in feedlots being willing to move cattle more aggressively rather than holding out for higher cash that may not be attainable. Some light cash trade took place $1.00 to $3.00 lower. The recent decline in futures and the developing tariff situation may be a warning shot over the bow. Boxed beef prices were lower on Wednesday with choice down $5.39 and select down $3.08.

Hogs extended the rebound with the potential for futures to reach back to the highs. Cash was strong with the National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showing a gain of $1.31. Packers may not be aggressive Thursday as buying may be mostly finished for the week. Pork cutouts were down $0.93. Traders are optimistic about the potential for pork demand after the tariff news was digested and tariffs on Mexico and Canada were put on hold. Hog slaughter continues to remain strong, keeping supplies current. There have been some indications that hog numbers may not be as large as reported, which may be one reason why prices are at current levels. However, packers continue to find sufficient hog numbers without difficulty.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures rebounded after the liquidation, indicating the market was overdone to the downside and traders wanted to take advantage of it.	1)	A few cattle sold on Wednesday at $1.00 to $3.00 lower. This may set the stage for cash for the rest of the week. Feedlots may be more anxious to sell with the uncertainty of the cash market.
2)	Cattle numbers are tight and there are no indications this will change anytime soon. The cattle herd is showing little sign of rebuilding.	2)	Boxed beef prices fell substantially on Wednesday with further weakness expected as beef demand may slow.
3)	Traders bought the break in hog futures in anticipation of stronger demand and better pork prices. Hog weights are holding slightly below a year ago.	3)	Hog weights are 0.1 pounds below a year ago, averaging 290.7 pounds, leaving a plentiful pork supply available. The packers have not had to chase after hogs.
4)	The hog market may have found a level of support and any break in the futures market may be viewed as a buying opportunity.	4)	It may be difficult for hog futures to push to new highs with the uncertainty of tariffs hanging over the market. Any slowing of demand could put pressure on the market.

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Traders Continued to Support Contracts

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex was able to see better technical success throughout the day as all three of the markets closed higher. Meanwhile, the cash cattle market wasn't as lucky as the few cattle that were traded throughout the day were sold for $1.00 to $3.00 lower compared to last week's weighted average. March corn is down 1 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $5.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 317.24 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Wednesday's market brought a change of direction for the live cattle complex as the contracts were finally able to regain some technical footing in the marketplace following Monday and Tuesday's lower ascend. February live cattle closed $1.72 higher at $203.60, April live cattle closed $2.65 higher at $201.30 and June live cattle closed $2.67 higher at $195.90. But while the futures complex found some support and mild success throughout the day, the few sales that did develop in the cash cattle market weren't as fortunate. Only a handful of cattle were sold in both regions, but prices were lower than compared to last week's weighted average as Northern dressed cattle were marked at $328 ($1.00 lower than last week's weighted average) and Southern live cattle sold for $205 ($3.00 lower than last week's weighted average. Packers are desperate to keep the cash cattle market from trading higher as their margins have suffered immensely -- but until more cattle sell, I'm not confident in saying that the week's weighted averages are set as feedlot managers still possess the lion's share of the market's leverage. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 121,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 4,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $5.39 ($325.34) and select down $3.08 ($314.33) with a movement of 161 loads (85.77 loads of choice, 40.64 loads of select, 22.74 loads of trim and 11.38 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady/somewhat lower. Prices are likely going to trade steady to somewhat lower this week as we've seen a few cattle already sell for cheaper money -- but not enough cattle have traded yet to say that any sort of a trend has been established.

FEEDER CATTLE:

At last, the feeder cattle complex was able to find some technical stability this week as earlier the market was hard-pressed to find any support at all. But between seeing the live cattle contracts trend higher and seeing the corn complex close mostly steady, feeders felt as though advancing the feeder cattle contracts higher was a solid move. March feeders closed $2.47 higher at $270.72, April feeders closed $2.85 higher at $270.47 and May feeders closed $3.00 higher at $268.80. Meanwhile, prices in the countryside bobbled slightly compared to the prices of recent weeks. At the Winter Livestock Auction in La Junta, Colorado, compared to last week, feeder steers sold mostly $3.00 to $5.00 lower, with instances of sharply lower across all weight groups. Feeder heifers traded $2.00 to $5.00 lower with instances of sharply lower across all weight groups. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 49%. The CME feeder cattle index 2/4/2025: down $0.42, $279.03.

LEAN HOGS:

Although pork cutout values closed slightly lower, the lean hog complex was thrilled to see technical support alive and well in its market again today. It's been a bumpy week for the hog sector as Monday's trade was pressured by the news headlines that overwhelmed the marketplace, but on Tuesday, traders again supported the complex and thankfully did so again today. Heading into Thursday's trade, the week's export report will be a big line item for the market, and hog enthusiasts are hopeful that demand will be plentiful and encourage the contracts to continue with their higher trend. But with the spot April contract nearing $92.00 -- the market again is going to be feeling some resistance pressure, which could pull some of the steam out of its sail. February lean hogs closed $1.57 higher at $86.65, April lean hogs closed $1.80 higher at $91.55 and June lean hogs closed $1.90 higher at $103.85. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $1.31 with a weighted average price of $86.31 on 6,934 head. Pork cutouts totaled 366.82 loads, with 335.43 loads of pork cuts and 31.39 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $0.93, 93.83. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 489,000 head -- 6,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 2/5/2025: up $0.31, $84.08.

THURSDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. It's likely that packers have fulfilled the vast majority of their needs for the week and that they'll be less active in the cash market on Thursday and Friday.