Sharp losses have once again developed in live cattle and feeder cattle futures as traders continue to wrestle with the impact of potential tariff talk and trade shifts, combined with the overall potential for additional cattle moving into the system from Mexico. Feeder cattle futures are leading the downward shift, with nearby contracts posting $5 to $6 per cwt losses at midday, creating the expectation for further losses before the closing bell. Hog futures remain mixed in a narrow range, with the focus squarely on cattle market direction. March corn is up 1/2 at $4.938 and March soybean meal is down $3.40 at $304.9. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 183.38 at 44,689.90.
LIVE CATTLE:Live cattle futures have erased any support seen midweek, with active triple-digit losses seen in all contract months. April futures have posted the most aggressive losses during morning trade, with prices over $4 per cwt lower at midday. The shift lower is now testing April and June futures at the 40-day moving average level, which may create additional concern through the upcoming days and weeks. In the last week, live cattle futures have fallen over $11 per cwt from all-time highs, creating a concern that traders are now searching for a sense of market support, which, after Thursday's moves, could be hard to solidify in the near future. The continued shift lower in cash cattle prices and beef values is adding to the overall futures market weakness. Even though cattle and beef supplies remain limited, the momentum seen through December and January has quickly evaporated in the first week of February. Cash cattle markets are starting to unfold with light trade developing in the South this morning at $206, about $2 lower than last week's weighted averages. Some asking prices remain firm around $208 in the South, and $329-plus in the North. Wednesday, a light scattered trade was reported in parts of the North with dressed deals at mostly $238, $1 lower than the prior week's weighted average. A few live deals were reported in Kansas at mostly $205. That is about $3 lower than the previous week's weighted average.
For the period of Jan. 24 to Jan. 30, 2025, beef net sales of 24,900 mt for 2025 primarily for South Korea (3,900 mt), Japan (3,300 mt), China (2,500 mt), the Dominican Republic (1,800 mt) and Ecuador (1,800 mt), were offset by reductions for the United Kingdom (100 MT). Exports of 19,800 mt were primarily to South Korea (5,700 mt), Japan (5,000 mt), China (3,700 mt), Mexico (1,500 mt) and Taiwan (1,400 mt). February live cattle are $2.35 lower at $201.25, April live cattle are $4.03 lower at $197.275, June live cattle are $3.50 lower at $192.40.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $1.89 ($323.45) and select up $0.31 ($314.64) with a movement of 81.81 loads (46.91 loads of choice, 19.58 loads of select, 9.37 loads of trim and 5.95 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:Feeder cattle futures continue to weaken as the morning continues with nearby futures holding $5 to $6 per cwt losses with additional late day pressure likely to develop across the complex. Although, the most aggressive losses are seen in nearby March and April futures, all contract months are taking significant hits with concerns surrounding the opening of import levels of cattle from Mexico and how this will change the tight supply of beef currently being factored into prices. March feeder cattle futures have once again now broken through the 40-day moving average price, after falling over $14 per cwt from last week's highs. The inability to sustain the recent market support could leave markets technically unsupported with little, short-term direction developing from cattle market fundamentals. Feeder cattle sales at the Southern Oklahoma Livestock Auction posted total receipts of 1,787, nearly 800 less than last week with prices generally $5 to $12 per cwt lower than last week's levels. March feeders are $5.70 lower at $265.025, April feeders are $5.65 lower at $264.825 and May feeders are $5.15 lower at $263.65.
LEAN HOGS:Lean hog futures remain at a standstill Thursday morning with very limited new direction developing in the complex. Nearby futures are holding single-digit gains with lightly traded May contracts posting a 50-cent loss. The limited direction in cash market activity through the morning as well as aggressive selling pressure in cattle markets is allowing for short-term stability to be seen across all lean hog futures trade. Despite early week market weakness in the complex, the hog market has regained strong fundamental buyer support with contracts trading at or near short-term highs after pulling back from the early week losses. February lean hogs are $0.08 higher at $86.725, April lean hogs are $0.08 higher at $91.625 and May lean hogs are $0.50 lower at $95.225.
Hog prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Daily Direct Morning Hog report. Pork Cutouts totaled 145.23 loads with 118.46 loads of pork cuts and 26.77 loads of trim. Pork cutout values are up $0.48 at $92.86.
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