Thursday Closing Livestock Market Update - Feedlot Managers Aren't Rushed to Market Their Showlists

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was relieving to see the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts close higher following the immense pressure the contracts endured earlier in the week. Bids were offered throughout the day in the cash market, but only a handful of cattle traded. March corn is up 3 1/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $1.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 342.87 points.

Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 13,100 mt for 2025 were primarily for South Korea (7,400 mt), Japan (2,700 mt) and Mexico (1,000 mt). Pork net sales of 24,900 mt for 2025 were primarily for Japan (6,200 mt), Mexico (5,000 mt) and South Korea (3,600 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

Although the live cattle complex didn't have the robust gains the feeder cattle contracts did – it was still a good day for the market as the contracts were able to close fully higher. The nearby contracts remained modest in their higher trend but some of the deferred contracts saw more interest as the furthest deferred months closed well over $1.00 higher. But as traders continue to wait to see what this week's cash market does -- they're hesitant to overly support the contracts without knowing what cash prices are going to do. February live cattle closed $0.40 higher at $199.55, April live cattle closed $0.80 higher at $196.52 and June live cattle closed $1.05 higher at $192.42. The cash cattle market again saw a few head trade in both regions today -- but with volumes still so thinly traded, calling a weekly trend at this point it's accurate. Asking prices in the South remain firm at $204 plus, and in the North at $321. Some light business has taken place in the South at $202 to $203 which is $3.00 to $4.00 lower than last week's weighted average, and some dressed trade has happened at $320. 

Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 117,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 6,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice down $1.86 ($317.40) and select up $0.70 ($309.84) with a movement of 116 loads (75.17 loads of choice, 14.47 loads of select, 14.87 loads of trim and 11.93 loads of ground beef).

FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady/$1.00 lower. Feedlot managers don't seem overly concerned about being in a rush to market their showlists, so it is possible prices could trend just steady to $1.00 lower as opposed to multiple dollars lower than last week's weighted average.

FEEDER CATTLE:

It was a victorious day for the feeder cattle complex as the market was able to successfully reconquer its 40-day moving average with the impressive $2.00 to $3.00 gains the day saw. March feeders closed $3.00 higher at $267.97, April feeders closed $2.72 higher at $267.97 and May feeders closed $2.55 higher at $266.30. From a technical sense, it will be important for the market to again close steady/somewhat higher if traders are going to begin to successfully establish a bottom for the near term. At Mitchell Livestock Auction in Mitchell, South Dakota compared to last week light steers had an undertone of steady, but steers weighing 750 to 1,050 pounds sold $1.00 to $6.00 higher. Heifers had a weaker undertone bot those weighing 500 to 800 pounds, but heifers weighing 800 to 1,000 pounds sold $1.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 93. The CME feeder cattle index 2/12/2025: down $1.31, $274.42.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex ended up closing lower, but that wasn't because of a lack of fundamental support. More than anything the day's slight regression likely stemmed from the fact that on Wednesday traders pushed the market higher aggressively, and simply didn't believe that they possessed enough gusto to do it again today. But both cash prices and pork cutout values were higher -- which again lends ample fundamental support. April lean hogs closed $1.22 lower at $93.10, June lean hogs closed $0.67 lower at $105.27 and July lean hogs closed $0.52 lower at $105.85. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $1.50 with a weighted average price of $90.75 on 3,045 head. Pork cutouts totaled 313.14 loads with 284.56 loads of pork cuts and 28.59 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.24, $100.87. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 2/11/2025: up $0.89, $87.08.

FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. At this point, it's likely that packers have fulfilled the majority of their cash needs and won't participate much in Friday's cash market.