It was a long troublesome week for the cattle complex, but thankfully by Friday's end, most of the livestock contracts were able to close higher. Heading into next week's trade, it will be vital to check on Monday morning to see exactly how many cattle were bought in the cash cattle market this past week as that will likely indicate how aggressive packers will be next week in the cash market. March corn is down 7 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $5.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 444.23 points.
From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: February live cattle down $3.82, April live cattle down $5.53; March feeder cattle down $10.83, April feeder cattle down $10.30; February lean hogs up $3.08, April lean hogs up $1.80; March corn up $0.05, May corn up $0.08.
LIVE CATTLE:It's been a burdensome week full of heavy-hitting news headlines that have weighed heavily upon the cattle complex. Between Monday's reaction to the tariff talks over the weekend, to APHIS's announcement that Mexican cattle imports were going to resume this week to Thursday's unraveling news that dairy cattle in Nevada had contracted a new strain of bird flu -- it's been a grim week for traders and consequently the live cattle suffered throughout the week. Thankfully the market was able to find some stability on Friday as most of the live cattle contracts closed higher, but that's not to say that all the market's uneasiness has been laid to rest as traders also dually took note that this week's cash cattle prices traded lower. Traders will likely be cautious in the marketplace next week as they continue to sort through the mess of this past week and try to regain a sense of direction for the near days to come. February live cattle closed $0.15 higher at $200.77, April live cattle closed steady at $196.77 and June live cattle closed $0.27 higher at $192.10.
Throughout the week Southern live cattle traded at mostly $206 which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle traded at $328 which is $1.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 100,000 head -- 14,000 head less than a week ago and 16,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 8,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated to be 584,000 head – 16,000 head less than a week ago and 33,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $2.11 ($321.87) and select down $1.87 ($312.90) with a movement of 155 loads (84.62 loads of choice, 12.87 loads of select, 36.79 loads of trim and 20.74 loads of ground beef).
MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady/somewhat lower. Its week's cash cattle trade will likely depend on how many cattle were bought this past week. If packers were able to buy a plethora of cattle and were consequently able to build up their supply, then it's likely that prices would trade lower. But if they are still slightly short-bought, prices may be able to remain steady.
FEEDER CATTLE:The feeder cattle complex found mixed support throughout the day as the market still felt unsettled following the week's pressure, but some of the deferred contracts were able to close mildly higher. It is technically concerning to see that the spot March contract closed below the market's 40-day moving average, which if Monday's market continues with that trend, could open the contract up to more downside pressure. March feeders closed $0.40 lower at $264.90, April feeders closed $0.17 lower at $264.82 and May feeders closed $0.10 lower at $263.60. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week, feeder steers and steer calves sold $5.00 to $10.00 lower. Feeder heifers traded $6.00 to $9.00 lower and heifer calves sold steady to $5.00 lower. Slaughter cows traded steady to $4.00 lower and slaughter bulls sold steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 67%. The CME feeder cattle index 2/6/2025: down $2.05, $275.59.
LEAN HOGS:The lean hog complex kept with its rallying theme throughout Friday's close. The market wasn't able to close above its long-term resistance at $93.00, but traders could potentially take a shot at that resistance threshold next week if demand remains supportive enough. April lean hogs closed $0.40 higher at $92.15, June lean hogs closed $0.42 higher at $104.27 and July lean hogs closed $0.62 higher at $105.17. And although this afternoon's pork cutout values were a little deceiving -- seeing a higher close is always a win for complex, it's undeniable the $7.52 jump in the belly is what likely pushed the carcass price higher as most of the other cuts closed mixed. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $3.06 with a weighted average price of $83.17 on 2,104 head. Pork cutouts totaled 281.63 loads with 256.65 loads of pork cuts and 24.98 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.36, $97.00. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 489,000 head – 9,000 head more than a week ago and 8,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 102,000 head. The CME lean hog index 2/5/2025: up $0.45, $85.05.
MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers rarely show much interest in the cash market on Mondays and it's unlikely that next week will fall out of that norm.
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