It was a tumultuous day for the cattle contracts as pressure sent both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts plummeting lower, but the lean hog complex found support and was able to take out long-term resistance levels. Packer interest should improve in the cash market on Wednesday.
March corn is down 7 1/2 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $3.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 123.24 points.
LIVE CATTLE:It was another painstaking day for the live cattle complex as the hope that last Friday's close would be a new support plane for the market came crashing down as throughout Tuesday the complex was pressured. But between money-managed funds being anxious, February being a tough month for beef demand, unknowingness about the new strain of bird flu circulating, and the sheer fact that just ten days ago the market scored new all-time highs in terms of the futures complex and cash prices -- it's not all that hard to believe that traders have backed away from the market and that some positions have been liquidated for sheer profit taking. But the question that continues to take up space in the hearts and minds and cattlemen is: was that the high for this cycle? Or will strong demand and limited supplies allow for stability throughout the complex to be regained? Truthfully, it's anyone's guess at this point, but as a fundamentalist at heart, I believe that the closer we get to grilling season and green grass the market will regain some stamina. February live cattle closed $2.20 lower at $199.67, April live cattle closed $2.12 lower at $196.00 and June live cattle closed $1.82 lower at $191.37. There were a few isolated deals made in the countryside today, but not enough to say that any sort of a market trend has been established yet for the week. Asking prices in the South remain firm at $206 plus and are still not established yet in the North.
Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.04 ($322.46) and select down $1.71 ($312.21) with a movement of 164 loads (115.58 loads of choice, 26.36 loads of select, 5.04 loads of trim and 17.33 loads of ground beef).
WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Given that packers were able to secure some inventory last week, it's likely that cash prices will again be lower this week.
FEEDER CATTLE:Without the help of the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle market stood little to no chance of trading higher, and it felt the external pressures that pained the live cattle as well. March feeders closed $3.35 lower at $264.77, April feeders closed $2.80 lower at $264.97 and May feeders closed $2.65 lower at $263.67. Unfortunately, with the spot March contract closing below its 40-day moving average, the market will likely be subject to more pressure in the days ahead. At Roswell Livestock Auction in Roswell, New Mexico, compared to last week, steer calves weighing 300 to 400 pounds sold $2.00 to $10.00 higher, while steers weighing 400 to 450 pounds traded $8.00 lower but those weighing 450 pounds to 600 pounds sold $1.00 to $9.00 higher with instances up to $13.00 higher. Slaughter cows sold $2.00 to $4.00 lower and slaughter bulls sold $7.00 to $12.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 23%. The CME feeder cattle index 2/10/2025: up $0.09, $275.85.
LEAN HOGS:The cattle contracts may have endured what felt like a never-ending painstaking day, but the lean hog contracts thrived throughout Tuesday's trade and successfully conquered long-term resistance levels in the spot April contract. April live cattle closed $1.35 higher at $92.97, June live cattle closed $0.72 higher at $104.70 and July lean hogs closed $0.35 higher at $105.25. It was helpful that pork cutout values did close slightly higher again this afternoon, which remains a critical driver in the market as traders need to be able to rely on demand. Hog prices averaged $88.55 on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, on 5,500 head and a five-day rolling average of $86.83. Pork cutouts totaled 319.01 loads, with 266.44 loads of pork cuts and 52.57 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.10, $99.72. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 491,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 5,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 2/10/2025: up $0.36, $85.75.
WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. With pork cutout values again closing higher and packers not having bought many hogs yet this week, it's likely that Wednesday's cash market will be higher.
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