GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a painful day for the entire livestock complex as all three of the markets closed lower Friday. Some more cash cattle trade developed in the South at $197, which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average. May corn is down 11 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $0.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 492.33 points.
From Friday-to-Friday livestock futures scored the following changes: February live cattle down $0.10, April live cattle down $1.30; March feeder cattle up $7.03, April feeder cattle up $5.45; April lean hogs down $4.00, June lean hogs down $5.60; March corn down $0.38, May corn down $0.36.
LIVE CATTLE:
Friday didn't pan out the way cattlemen had hoped. Traders have already been on edge as they held the spot April live cattle contract mostly steady throughout the week between the market's 40-day and 100-day moving averages, showing that they weren't certain which way the market was going to tip. But upon seeing cash cattle trade another $2.00 lower this week -- the scale tipped and traders let the market slip lower. Unfortunately, this bearish news likely means next week's market will be subject to more pressure. This opens the door for the obvious question : How much lower is the market going to trade now? The market's next support threshold is at $188.00. April live cattle closed $3.47 lower at $192.65, June live cattle closed $3.55 lower at $188.77, and August live cattle closed $3.15 lower at $187.92. Throughout the week, Southern live cattle traded at $197, which is $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at $313, which is also $2.00 lower than last week's weighted average. It's likely the market could remain under pressure until seasonal boxed beef demand improves and packers have to pull more cattle out of the cash cattle market.
Friday's slaughter is estimated at 107,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 6,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 2,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated at 566,000 head -- 3,000 head less than a week ago and 28,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.65 ($311.83) and select down $0.08 ($302.05) with a movement of 101 loads (71.22 loads of choice, 10.52 loads of select, 10.81 loads of trim and 8.88 loads of ground beef).
MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Until boxed beef prices strengthen, packers will likely continue to push the cash cattle market lower.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Unfortunately, not even the feeder cattle complex could maintain its higher position through Friday's close as the live cattle market's pressure grew too burdensome to look beyond. Earlier in the day, the nearby feeder cattle contracts were trading higher; but shortly after the noon hour the market's pressure sent those contracts lower as well. March feeders closed $1.47 lower at $274.97, April feeders closed $2.55 lower at $273.00, and May feeders closed $2.85 lower at $271.12. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to the last full test two weeks ago, feeder steers traded $2.00 to $8.00 higher and feeder heifers traded $3.00 to $6.00 higher. Stock cattle and calves sold $10.00 to $25.00 higher. Demand continues to be extremely strong for cattle suitable for grass. Slaughter cows sold $4.00 to $10.00 higher and slaughter bulls traded $3.00 to $4.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 73%. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 2/27/2025: up $1.42, $281.06.
LEAN HOGS:
There's no a kind way to put it -- Friday's market was another blow to the lean hog complex as the market anxiously waits to see what's going to develop next week in terms of tariffs. The lean hog market is especially worried about what's going to happen to its ability to export pork into Mexico if trade relationships become contentious. April lean hogs closed $0.70 lower at $83.67, June lean hogs closed $2.57 lower at $95.02, and July lean hogs closed $2.72 lower at $96.75. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.53 with a weighted average price of $90.02 on 4,142 head. Pork cutouts totaled 228.87 loads with 203.85 loads of pork cuts and 25.03 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $4.30, $100.96. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 480,000 head -- 13,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 100,000 head. The CME Lean Hog Index 2/26/2025: down $0.10, $89.39.
MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Packers rarely dive aggressively into the cash hog market on Mondays.
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