GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex has finally found some technical support late in the week, which is partly because of the morning's favorable export report. Later this afternoon, the monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released, which will be a big ticket item for the market. March corn is down 4 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $0.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 463.62 points.
Friday's export report shared that beef net sales of 21,500 mt for 2025 were up 64% from the previous week and up 35% from the previous 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Japan (9,800 mt), South Korea (3,400 mt) and China (2,700 mt). Pork net sales of 25,600 mt for 2025 were up 3% from the previous week, but down 27% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (5,700 mt), Japan (4,100 mt) and Colombia (3,800 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex is thankfully trading mildly higher into Friday's noon hour after receiving a supportive export sales report this morning. The change in market direction comes as a huge sigh of relief for traders (and everyone else involved in the marketplace) as it was concerning that the contracts were growing closer and closer to threatening the market's 100-day moving average. And if the complex happened to break below that threshold -- bearishness would have undoubtedly overcome the complex. April live cattle are up $0.57 at $194.37, June live cattle are up $0.67 at $190.65 and August live cattle are up $0.85 at $189.25. A few more cash cattle sales have developed throughout the morning with prices full steady with the week's decline. So far this week, Southern live cattle have traded for mostly $199, which is $4.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle have traded for $315, which is $5.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. For cattle left on showlists asking prices remain firm in the South at $200 plus and in the North at $316 plus.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.76 ($311.87) and select up $0.90 ($304.08) with a movement of 98 loads (72.05 loads of choice, 6.06 loads of select, 5.96 loads of trim and 13.92 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex is also trading higher into Friday's noon hour as the market is thankful to see the added support of the live cattle contracts higher trend. It wouldn't be all that surprising to see the market grow a little anxious this afternoon as it's up in the air what could come later with the Cattle on Feed report. Placements are expected to be higher than a year ago but until the chips fall -- you never really know. I do want to make a special note that it's important to remember that last year placements in January were down 7% because of the brutally cold temperatures and snow accumulations. So logically, one would expect placements to be higher than a year ago, but with Mexican cattle imports banned still during the month of January, there is a case to be made that placements may simply be steady. Time will tell. March feeders are up $1.82 at $268.62, April feeders are up $1.92 at $268.30 and May feeders are up $1.80 at $266.87.
LEAN HOGS:
Friday's supportive export report has also helped the lean hog complex find a little stability as well. Also, helping trader's is the fact that morning pork cutout values are higher, which is a significant relief given the sharp decline prices saw earlier this week. But it is important to note that the belly jump $18.17 which is greatly influencing the carcass price. April lean hogs are down $0.22 at $88.30, June lean hogs are up $0.70 at $101.00 and July lean hogs are up $0.75 at $102.20.
The projected lean hog index for 2/20/2025 is down $0.69 at $90.53, and the actual index for 2/19/2025 is up $0.24 at $91.22. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.80 with a weighted average price of $90.25, ranging from $87.00 to $93.00 on 1,929 head and a five-day rolling average of $91.91. Pork cutouts total 246.37 loads with 209.51 loads of pork cuts and 36.86 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $5.16, $99.19.
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