GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a dreadful day for the livestock complex as the contracts continued to bleed lower as the market continues to lack the necessary technical support to put a bottom in the market's current move. Some cash cattle trade did develop -- but prices were marked $4.00 to $5.00 lower than last week's weighted average. March corn is up 1/2 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is up $1.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 450.94 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The only good thing that developed throughout Thursday's trade is that although the futures complex traded lower -- thank God prices remained above the market's 100-day moving average. April live cattle closed $0.97 lower at $193.80, June live cattle closed $0.95 lower at $189.97, and August live cattle closed $0.77 lower at $188.40. The market's 100-day moving average is well within a day's worth of trade, so monitoring that threshold remains imperative, as a close below it would be extremely bearish. Some light trade was reported in the cash cattle market throughout the day as Southern live cattle traded for $199, which is $4.00 lower than last week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded for $315, which is $5.00 lower than last week's weighted average.
Thursday's is estimated at 117,000 head -- steady with a week ago and 7,000 head less than a year ago.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.26 ($312.63) and select down $0.58 ($303.18) with a movement of 101 loads (62.54 loads of choice, 21.45 loads of select, 5.74 loads of trim and 11.10 loads of ground beef).
FRIDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week. At this point, any more trade that develops likely remains steady with the week's trend.
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex endured a painful day as the market again dipped below its 40-day moving average without receiving the necessary technical support it needed. March feeders closed $2.20 lower at $266.82, April feeders closed $2.22 lower at $266.37 and May feeders closed $1.97 lower at $265.07. Not helping matters is Friday's monthly Cattle on Feed report that is expected to show placements will be higher than a year ago, which causes the market some anxiousness. But that's one of the problems with the COF reports because it makes logical sense that placements should be greater than a year ago, given that just this past month Mexican cattle imports were allowed to resume to the U.S. after a two-month hiatus. At La Junta Livestock Commission in La Junta, Colorado, compared to last week, feeder steers weighing 500 pounds or less sold sharply higher, while steers weighing 500 pounds or more traded mostly $2.00 to $4.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold $1.00 to $4.00 higher across all weighted groups. The CME feeder cattle index 2/19/2025: not available at this time.
LEAN HOGS:
It was another painful day of significant losses for the lean hog complex as not only did the futures market close lower -- but so did cash prices and pork cutout values. The market is desperately hoping that Friday's export report shares the news of strong sales to countries abroad because the domestic demand pulse in the U.S. isn't helping the market right now. But once again today, it was the belly that significantly caused the carcass price's decline as it alone fell $7.46. April lean hogs closed $1.22 lower at $88.52, June lean hogs closed $1.37 lower at $100.30 and July lean hogs closed $1.15 lower at $101.45.
Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $2.54 with a weighted average price of $89.44 on 1,386 head. Pork cutouts totaled 323.95 loads, with 297.33 loads of pork cuts and 26.62 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.49, $94.03. Thursday's slaughter is estimated at 473,000 head -- 13,000 head less than a week ago and 15,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 2/18/2025: up $0.79, $90.98.
FRIDAY'S HOG CALL: Lower. Friday's cash hog market likely sees less interest as packers have likely secured their needs for the week.
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