Thursday Midday Livestock Market Update - Prices Dip Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's been a disappointing day thus far for the livestock complex as all three of the livestock markets are trading lower, as technical support simply isn't available right now. Still, no cash cattle trade has developed, but packer demand should improve at any time. March corn is up 1 cent per bushel and March soybean meal is up $0.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 547.89 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The market has decided to add yet another down leg to the charts as the live cattle complex continues to dive lower. The morning's regression is modest, but it feels gut wrenching given the mass position lost since the end of January. April live cattle are down $1.37 at $193.40, June live cattle are down $1.25 at $189.67 and August live cattle are down $1.02 at $188.15. If the market happens to dip below it' 100-day moving average, more downward pressure is likely, as that's a bearish signal. A few bids are currently on the table at $198 live in Texas, and $200 live and $315 dressed in Iowa. Still no cattle have sold today, but packer interest could improve at any time now. Asking prices are firm in the South at $202 to $205, but are still not established in the North.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $1.80 ($312.09) and select up $0.25 ($304.01) with a movement of 63 loads (38.29 loads of choice, 16.39 loads of select, 5.50 loads of trim and 3.27 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The positive move above the market's 40-day moving average in the spot March contract earlier this week is no longer a reality, as the contracts are trading $1.00 to $2.00 lower in Thursday's noon hour. Upon seeing the live cattle complex trade lower yet again, technical uncertainty starts to again take root in the feeder cattle complex. But I think it's important to remember that although feeder cattle prices have softened slightly compared to recent weeks (partly because of the decline in the futures complex, and partly because of weather challenges), the CME feeder cattle index is still extremely high, as it closed at $278.51 Wednesday afternoon. This continues to prove that demand is still strong despite the futures market's weakness.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex is enduring another painstaking day of continued loss, as pork cutout values and traders are currently finding one thing in common -- lower prices. April lean hogs are down $1.17 at $88.57, June lean hogs are down $1.12 at $100.55 and July lean hogs are down $0.97 at $101.62. Again today, the carcass price is being pulled lower, mainly by the belly's $9.16 drop, which is problematic for traders as they desperately yearn to see consistent consumer demand.

The projected lean hog index for 2/19/2025 is up $0.24 at $91.22, and the actual index for 2/18/2025 is up $0.79 at $90.98. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $3.32 with a weighted average price of $89.45, ranging from $88.00 to $90.00 on 686 head and a five-day rolling average of $91.25. Pork cutouts total 200.09 loads with 184.75 loads of pork cuts and 15.34 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.28, $94.24.