GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is trading mixed as the cattle complex is inching higher, hopeful that prices will be steady to somewhat higher when the cash cattle market trades. Meanwhile, the lean hog complex is plundering lower as traders react frantically to the news that a 25% tariff is expected to go into place as early as next week. May corn is down 11 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $0.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 303.97 points
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 18,200 mt for 2025 were down 15% from the previous week but up 4% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (8,600 mt), Japan (2,500 mt) and China (1,800 mt). Pork net sales of 32,200 mt for 2025 were up 26% from the previous week but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (13,300 mt), Japan (3,500 mt) and China (2,800 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex is again trading higher as the market seems encouraged by the morning's export sales report -- by the higher note of boxed beef prices and the potential that the cash cattle market could potentially trade steady to somewhat higher this week. The futures complex is in a critical position, hovering between both the market's 40-day moving average and the market's 100-day moving average, seeming to almost clearly say, "either market direction is possible, it's just going to depend on what surfaces fundamentally." Until the cash cattle market trades, we continue to watch earnestly. April live cattle are up $1.60 at $196.20, June live cattle are up $1.07 at $192.32 and August live cattle are up $0.82 at $191.10. A single bid is currently on the table in Texas at $196, but no sales have been reported today and with asking prices firm at $200 to $201 -- it's likely that packers are going to need to get more aggressive before we will see any cattle trade.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.30 ($313.20) and select up $0.59 ($303.83) with a movement of 79 loads (46.29 loads of choice, 12.41 loads of select, 5.28 loads of trim and 15.40 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
And once again, the feeder cattle market is leaping higher into Thursday's noon hour, eager to see its contracts advanced. March feeders are up $2.35 at $276.72, April feeders are up $2.22 at $275.75 and May feeders are up $2.72 at $274.10. At this point, the market will likely keep its upward momentum through the day's close as its $1.00 to $2.00 advancement seems strong and well supported fundamentally by the market's feeder cattle demand in the countryside.
LEAN HOGS:
The political pressure of tariffs that are set to be enforced as early as next week is weighing heavily on the lean hog complex as US hog producers rely heavily on their ability to export pork to Mexico -- specifically. And even though morning pork cutout values are higher here domestically today, the bearish news of how tariffs could affect current trade relationships is weighing heavily on the hog complex. The spot April contract has broken below the market's resistance at $86.00 -- a support plane that was established early in January. April lean hogs are down $3.75 at $84.55, June lean hogs are down $3.02 at $97.85 and July lean hogs are down $2.75 at $99.62.
The projected lean hog index is $0.10 lower at $89.39, and the actual index for 2/25/2025 is up $0.02 at $89.49. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.01 with a weighted average price of $90.23, ranging from $86.00 to $92.00 on 1,090 head and a five-day rolling average of $90.12. Pork cutouts total 116.65 loads, with 101.97 loads of pork cuts and 14.68 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.18, $96.84.
No comments:
Post a Comment