Tuesday, February 18, 2025

Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Mixed Tones Followed the Complex

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a mixed day for the livestock complex as both the lean hog and feeder cattle markets were able to close higher but the live cattle market's nearby contracts closed lower. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day. March corn is up 5 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $2.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 10.26 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The market wasn't able to shake the bearish technical turmoil that plagued the market last week and closed lower yet again today. But today the live cattle contracts closed mixed with the market's nearby contracts continuing in their painstaking lower trend, while the market's deferred contracts were able to close mildly higher. It's worth noting that today's close in the spot April contract is a futures complex low for the 2025 calendar year. And while the market seems to maintain its overall bullish tone despite the setback the futures complex is currently enduring -- pressure is likely to remain a common theme throughout the week as cash cattle prices are expected to trade lower and this Friday's Cattle on Feed report could be a bear that the market has to dance with given that placements are expected to be higher than a year ago. April live cattle closed $0.22 lower at $194.02, June live cattle closed $0.05 lower at $190.40 and August live cattle closed $0.05 higher at $188.82. No cash cattle trade developed throughout the day and trade isn't expected to develop until Thursday or Friday. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 118,000 head -- 4,000 head less than a week ago and 8,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.07 ($315.77) and select down $2.52 ($303.71) with a movement of 140 loads (84.52 loads of choice, 26.95 loads of select, 14.32 loads of trim and 14.36 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Packers were again able to buy up supply last week so it's likely that cash prices will trade lower this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex didn't hold back throughout Tuesday's trade as the market ran $2.00 to $3.00 higher even though the live cattle complex lent virtually no support and nearby corn contracts closed between $0.05 to $0.07 higher. Nonetheless, the spot March feeder cattle contract was able to close above its 40-day moving average which has been a teetering threshold for the market and comes as a big success for today's close. March feeders closed $3.37 higher at $269.72, April feeders closed $2.67 higher at $269.10 and May feeders closed $2.32 higher at $267.32. At Roswell Livestock Auction in Roswell, New Mexico compared to last week, steer calves weighing 300 to 350 pounds sold $5.00 lower with steers weighing 350 to 500 pounds trading steady to $7.00 higher but steers weighing 500 to 600 pounds sold $10.00 to $12.00 lower. Heifer calves weighing 350 to 400 pounds and heifers weighing 550 to 650 pounds sold $4.00 to $9.00 lower, but those weighing 300 to 350 pounds and heifers weighing 450 to 550 pounds both traded $2.00 to $9.00 higher. The CME feeder cattle index 2/17/2025: up $1.69, $277.99.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex closed higher as traders remain committed to supporting the market after it showed just last week that it could indeed take out its previous resistance at $92.00 and remain above that threshold. April lean hogs closed $0.60 higher at $93.20, June lean hogs closed $0.57 higher at $105.25 and July lean hogs closed $0.35 higher at $105.70. The market's fundamentals were mixed this afternoon as the cash market saw a huge movement (over 7,000 head) and prices were higher -- but pork cutout values were disappointing with a sharp decline. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $2.28 with a weighted average price of $91.79 on 7,017 head. Pork cutouts totaled 301.42 loads with 256.23 loads of pork cuts and 45.19 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $3.00, $99.47. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head -- 1,000 head less than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 2/14/2025: up $0.72, $89.49.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady/somewhat lower. Given that today's movement was so vast, it's likely that packers aren't as aggressive on Wednesday.





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