GENERAL COMMENTS:
The cattle complex was able to trade higher throughout Monday's market as traders were relieved to see some support stem from Friday's Cattle on Feed report. New showlists appear to be lower in all major feeding states. March corn is down 8 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $3.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 96.52 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
It was a strong day for the live cattle complex as traders opted to find support in Friday's Cattle on Feed report and use that positive note to help push the contracts higher through Monday's trade. April live cattle closed $1.15 higher at $195.10, June live cattle closed $1.07 higher at $191.40 and August live cattle closed $1.25 higher at $190.22. It would be putting the cart before the horse to say that a bottom has been found for the market's current move and that traders will now actively work to advance the market -- but if good effort on their behalf is shown this week -- then maybe, just maybe, the market may think of changing its trend from lower to higher once again. New showlists appear to be lower in all major feeding states. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 95,000 head -- steady with last week but 26,000 head less than a year ago.
Last week, Southern live cattle traded at mostly $199, which is $4.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $315, which is $5.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 48,723 head. Of that, 89% (43,418 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 11% (5,305 head) were committed to the deferred delivery option.
Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.96 ($313.73) and select up $1.41 ($303.97) with a movement of 85 loads (46.45 loads of choice, 15.61 loads of select, 9.18 loads of trim and 13.29 loads of ground beef).
TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Although packers committed the majority of last week's purchase to the nearby delivery, they still didn't buy very many cattle. And if they intend to keep enough supply around them moving forward, they're likely going to need to secure more inventory.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Monday was a prosperous day for the feeder cattle complex as the market jumped $3.00 to $4.00 higher by the day's close -- seeming to mostly be encouraged by last Friday's Cattle on Feed report. But I also believe that traders are again willing to look at the buyer demand in the countryside and pay it its respect as even though over the last month the market's technical have suffered, all in all, buyer demand has remained incredibly strong and with every day that the market gets closer to green grass, feeder cattle and calves are only likely to get more expensive. March feeders closed $4.35 higher at $282.30, April feeders closed $4.47 higher at $272.02 and May feeders closed $4.42 higher at $270.35. It was both relieving and encouraging to see the spot March contract again conquer its 40-day moving average, which has remained a critical price point for the futures complex. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week and at their mid-session point, feeder steers were trading steady to $3.00 higher and feeder heifers were trading steady to $2.00 higher. Steer calves were selling $3.00 to $8.00 higher, with stocker calves trading up to $10.00 to $15.00 higher. Stocker heifers were selling $10.00 to $20.00 higher. There was a stronger undertone for cattle that were suitable for grass. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 54%. The CME feeder cattle index 2/21/2025: up $0.53, $279.37.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex couldn't shake the heavy weight that overcame its market last week as most of its nearby contracts continued to trade lower but some of the deferred contracts did close slightly higher. April lean hogs closed $0.27 lower at $87.40, June lean hogs closed $0.70 lower at $99.92 and July lean hogs closed $0.55 lower at $101.40. Again, this afternoon, it was comforting to see that pork cutout values closed higher and that besides the rib and the ham, every other cut closed higher. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.48 with a weighted average price of $88.60 on 730 head. Pork cutouts totaled 245.74 loads, with 212.56 loads of pork cuts and 33.18 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.36, $98.43. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head -- steady with last week but 2,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 2/20/2025: up $0.69, $90.53.
TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Given that packers hardly participated in Monday's market, they'll likely be more aggressive on Tuesday.
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