Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle on Feed Report Helps Turn the Cattle Contracts Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are trading higher into Monday's noon hour as traders' applause Friday's slightly bullish Cattle on Feed Report. The feeder cattle market is trading higher with boldness as its contracts are all well above $3.00 higher. March corn is down 8 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $2.30. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 191.02 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

I hate to put the cart before the horse, but it's seeming as if Friday's Cattle on Feed report could be giving the live cattle complex some much needed support, which is thankfully allowing all the live cattle contracts to trade higher into Monday's noon hour. It's entirely too early to say whether or not the market will shift its trend from lower to higher, but the day's upward movement is a nice trend either way. April live cattle are up $1.00 at $194.92, June live cattle are up $0.90 at $191.20 and August live cattle are up $1.02 at $190.00. New showlists appear to be lower in all major feeding states.

Last week, Southern live cattle traded at mostly $199, which is $4.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $315, which is $5.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 48,723 head. Of that, 89% (43,418 head) were committed to the nearby delivery while the remaining 11% (5,305 head) were committed to the deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.97 ($313.74) and select up $1.07 ($303.63) with a movement of 35 loads (16.61 loads of choice, 5.69 loads of select, 5.50 loads of trim and 6.79 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex hasn't sat around waiting idly to see what the live cattle market is going to do with Friday's Cattle on Feed report -- as it's trading well above $3.00 higher in all the contracts. March feeders are up $3.20 at $271.10, April feeders are up $3.22 at $270.77 and May feeders are up $3.27 at $269.20. More than anything, it's relieving and encouraging to see the spot March contract trading back above the market's 40-day moving average.

LEAN HOGS:

Although morning pork cutout values are higher, the lean hog complex isn't willing to shake last week's tumultuous downturn just yet and fully change its direction. The spot April contract is trading higher, but otherwise the deferred months are trending lower as the market wants to see continued consumer demand. What's potentially most exciting about the uptick in pork cutout values Monday morning is that the big jump isn't stemming from just one of the major cuts; rather, most of the major cuts are higher this morning. April lean hogs are up $0.02 at $87.70, June lean hogs down $0.25 at $100.37 and July lean hogs are down $0.10 at $101.85.

The projected lean hog index for 2/21/2025 is down $0.85 at $89.68, and the actual index for 2/20/2025 is down $0.69 at $90.53. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.29 with a weighted average price of $88.96, ranging from $87.00 to $90.00 on 663 head and a five-day rolling average of $91.69. Pork cutouts total 157.62 loads with 141.72 loads of pork cuts and 15.91 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.84, $98.91.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures May Open Higher in Reaction to COF Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

There was limited price movement in cattle futures Friday ahead of the Cattle on Feed report. The trade had already adjusted to the lower cash, leaving traders positioning themselves ahead of the report. Cash cattle traded $4.00 lower in the South and $5.00 lower in the North. The Cattle on Feed report was neutral to slightly bullish and could provide some support to the market Monday. However, much of it may be factored in already, leaving most of the market direction to boxed beef prices and the expectation for cash trade. Boxed beef was lower Friday, which may limit upside potential. Choice was down $1.86 with select down $0.62. The continued weakness may set the stage for lower cash cattle this week. Feedlots have lost their bargaining power and are selling rather than holding over and potentially receiving yet lower prices. The Commitments of Traders report showed funds reducing their long position in live cattle by 8,766 contracts to a net-long of 127,603. They added 1,501 long futures positions to feeder cattle, bringing their net-long to 28,657 contracts.

Nearby hog contracts closed under pressure with weekly export sales not as good as hoped and the negative cutout prices of the week weighing on the market. However, cutouts rebounded nicely Friday, posting a gain of $3.04. This may turn the tide to begin the week. Futurse may have finished the substantial correcting with the potential for traders to buy back into the market. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.64 as buyers remained active. The combination of higher cutouts and stronger cash Friday should provide support to begin the week. The Commitments of Traders report showed fund traders adding 9,357 long positions to lean hogs, increasing their position to a net-long 11,745 contracts.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Cattle on Feed report showed placements below the average trade estimate, which may support the market.	1)	Cattle marketings were lower than the trade estimate, which may keep the reaction to the Cattle on Feed report neutral.
2)	Weekly beef export sales were good at 21,500 metric tons (mt) and 64% higher than the previous week. International demand remains strong.	2)	Boxed beef prices continue to slide and will keep pressure on the cash market.
3)	Pork cutouts were up significantly Friday, indicating demand remains strong. Further gains may be seen Monday.	3)	The packers may not need to purchase hogs aggressively to begin the week. They bought a good amount on Friday at higher prices.
4)	The packers seem to be short-bought in hogs. If this is the case, they may be aggressive in the cash market Monday,	4)	The liquidation phase seems to have subsided. However, it may be difficult to regain the losses anytime soon. Traders will be cautious over ongoing demand.

Friday Closing Livestock Market Update - Late-Week Support Helps Contracts Close Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex found some late-week support, as all three of the markets were able to close mostly higher Friday afternoon. But what was most surprising was that Friday's Feb. 1 Cattle on Feed report came out neutral to somewhat supportive. March corn is down 6 3/4 cents per bushel, and March soybean meal is down $1.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 748.63 points.

Friday's export report revealed that beef net sales of 21,500 metric tons (mt) for 2025 were up 64% from the previous week and up 35% from the previous four-week average. The three primary buyers were Japan (9,800 mt), South Korea (3,400 mt) and China (2,700 mt). Pork net sales of 25,600 mt for 2025 were up 3% from the previous week, but down 27% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (5,700 mt), Japan (4,100 mt) and Colombia (3,800 mt).

From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: February live cattle up $0.08, April live cattle down $0.30; March feeder cattle up $1.60, April feeder cattle up $1.13; April lean hogs down $4.93, June lean hogs down $4.05; March corn down $0.05, May corn down $0.04.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex was finally able to gain some technical support by the week's end and successfully closed fully higher on Friday afternoon. April live cattle closed $0.15 higher at $193.95, June live cattle closed $0.35 higher at $190.32, and August live cattle closed $0.57 higher at $188.97. Friday afternoon's Feb. 1 USDA Cattle on Feed report was also slightly supportive, which could potentially help traders advance the contracts higher again early next week.

Throughout the week, Southern live cattle traded for $199, which is $4 lower than last week's weighted average, but Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $315, which is $5 lower than last week's weighted average. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 107,000 head -- 7,000 head more than a week ago and 11,000 head less than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 9,000 head. The week's total slaughter is estimated to be around 563,000 head -- 2,000 head more than a week ago but 27,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.86 ($310.77) and select down $0.62 ($302.56) with a movement of 174 loads (95.92 loads of choice, 10.24 loads of select, 45.77 loads of trim and 22.18 loads of ground beef).

MONDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. Until the throughput picks up, it's likely that cash prices are going to trend lower.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex was also able to close higher as the market rallied alongside the live cattle complex. March feeders closed $1.12 higher at $267.95, April feeders closed $1.17 higher at $267.55, and May feeders closed $0.85 higher at $265.92. But what was most exciting for the feeder cattle complex was seeing that Friday's Cattle on Feed report came in slightly supportive, as placements weren't as high as they were projected to be. With the added support of the COF report and the continued support of buyer demand in the countryside, one could argue that next week, the market may be able to continue its upward trend. The Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary shared that compared to last week and throughout the entire state, feeder steers and traded $6 to $9 higher, and steer calves sold $8 to $11 higher. Feeder heifers and heifer calves sold $3 to $8 higher, except those weighing 500 to 600 pounds, which traded $10 higher. Slaughter cows sold $7 to $11 higher with the biggest advancement seen on the lean cows. Slaughter bulls traded $5 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 68%. The CME feeder cattle index 2/20/2025: up $0.02, $278.84.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex rounded out the week mixed as the nearby contracts closed slightly lower, but the rest of the contracts were able to maintain their slightly higher edge through the day's end. April lean hogs closed $0.85 lower at $87.67, June lean hogs closed $0.32 higher at $100.62 and July lean hogs closed $0.50 higher at $101.95. The deferred contracts were able to close higher thanks to the support that came from this morning's export report, along with the slight uptick in domestic pork demand Friday as well. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.64 with a weighted average price of $90.08 on 2,140 head. Pork cutouts totaled 357.18 loads with 300.91 loads of pork cuts and 56.27 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $3.04, $97.07. Friday's slaughter is estimated at 481,000 head -- 3,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head more than a year ago. Saturday's slaughter is projected to be around 125,000 head. The CME lean hog index 2/19/2025: up $0.24, $91.22.

MONDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers were aggressive in this week's cash market, and next week, their interest will depend on whether they are still short-bought or not.

Friday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Technical Support Mildly Appears

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The livestock complex has finally found some technical support late in the week, which is partly because of the morning's favorable export report. Later this afternoon, the monthly Cattle on Feed report will be released, which will be a big ticket item for the market. March corn is down 4 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $0.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 463.62 points.

Friday's export report shared that beef net sales of 21,500 mt for 2025 were up 64% from the previous week and up 35% from the previous 4-week average. The three primary buyers were Japan (9,800 mt), South Korea (3,400 mt) and China (2,700 mt). Pork net sales of 25,600 mt for 2025 were up 3% from the previous week, but down 27% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (5,700 mt), Japan (4,100 mt) and Colombia (3,800 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is thankfully trading mildly higher into Friday's noon hour after receiving a supportive export sales report this morning. The change in market direction comes as a huge sigh of relief for traders (and everyone else involved in the marketplace) as it was concerning that the contracts were growing closer and closer to threatening the market's 100-day moving average. And if the complex happened to break below that threshold -- bearishness would have undoubtedly overcome the complex. April live cattle are up $0.57 at $194.37, June live cattle are up $0.67 at $190.65 and August live cattle are up $0.85 at $189.25. A few more cash cattle sales have developed throughout the morning with prices full steady with the week's decline. So far this week, Southern live cattle have traded for mostly $199, which is $4.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle have traded for $315, which is $5.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. For cattle left on showlists asking prices remain firm in the South at $200 plus and in the North at $316 plus.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.76 ($311.87) and select up $0.90 ($304.08) with a movement of 98 loads (72.05 loads of choice, 6.06 loads of select, 5.96 loads of trim and 13.92 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is also trading higher into Friday's noon hour as the market is thankful to see the added support of the live cattle contracts higher trend. It wouldn't be all that surprising to see the market grow a little anxious this afternoon as it's up in the air what could come later with the Cattle on Feed report. Placements are expected to be higher than a year ago but until the chips fall -- you never really know. I do want to make a special note that it's important to remember that last year placements in January were down 7% because of the brutally cold temperatures and snow accumulations. So logically, one would expect placements to be higher than a year ago, but with Mexican cattle imports banned still during the month of January, there is a case to be made that placements may simply be steady. Time will tell. March feeders are up $1.82 at $268.62, April feeders are up $1.92 at $268.30 and May feeders are up $1.80 at $266.87.

LEAN HOGS:

Friday's supportive export report has also helped the lean hog complex find a little stability as well. Also, helping trader's is the fact that morning pork cutout values are higher, which is a significant relief given the sharp decline prices saw earlier this week. But it is important to note that the belly jump $18.17 which is greatly influencing the carcass price. April lean hogs are down $0.22 at $88.30, June lean hogs are up $0.70 at $101.00 and July lean hogs are up $0.75 at $102.20.

The projected lean hog index for 2/20/2025 is down $0.69 at $90.53, and the actual index for 2/19/2025 is up $0.24 at $91.22. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.80 with a weighted average price of $90.25, ranging from $87.00 to $93.00 on 1,929 head and a five-day rolling average of $91.91. Pork cutouts total 246.37 loads with 209.51 loads of pork cuts and 36.86 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $5.16, $99.19.