Tuesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Feeders Continue to Push the Cattle Complex Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was another positive day for the cattle complex as both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts closed higher. It would appear as though the market is indeed committing to trading higher following the low established last week. No cash cattle trade has developed yet, but packer interest could improve on Wednesday. May corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $2.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 159.95 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was another sound, successful day for the live cattle complex as traders are beginning to fully believe in the idea that the market is going to change its tune and turn from its recent lower trend to a higher one. April live cattle closed $0.62 higher at $195.72, June live cattle closed $0.85 higher at $192.25 and August live cattle closed $0.85 higher at $191.07. Every day when the market inches further and further away from its 100-day moving average is a good day in producer's minds, as it was painful having to look at how close the market was to potentially dipping below that threshold and what bearish implications that would have had for the marketplace. Nevertheless, traders are slowly adding a bottom to the market's trend and once again inching higher. And with the uptick in boxed beef prices, there's even hope that the cash cattle market could potentially trade steady if not a little higher this week, as last week's movement was thin. Asking prices are noted in the South at $200 plus but are still not established in the North. 

Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 122,000 head -- 4,000 head more than a week ago and 1,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $0.59 ($314.32) and select up $0.16 ($304.13) with a movement of 144 loads (94.87 loads of choice, 21.76 loads of select, 15.84 loads of trim and 11.74 loads of ground beef).

WEDNESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. With boxed beef prices lending some positive support to the greater marketplace, there's a chance that cash prices could at least trade steady this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is the driving force behind the cattle market's recent direction change as it again today boasts an additional $1.00 to $2.00 higher, close behind yesterday's $3.00 to $4.00 advancement. But the recent moisture which parts of the North and Central plains have received mixed with the excellent demand in the countryside, traders have more than enough support to justify the daily gains that they're pushing. March feeders closed $1.92 higher at $274.22, April feeders closed $1.77 higher at $273.80 and May feeders closed $1.97 higher at $272.32. At Joplin Regional Stockyard in Carthage, Missouri, compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers traded $8.00 to $25.00 higher. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 66%. The CME feeder cattle index 2/24/2025: up $0.07, $279.44.

LEAN HOGS:

It was another painstaking day for the lean hog complex as the market yet again fell lower. What's concerning from a technical standpoint is that the spot April contract is nearing the support plane around $86.00, which remains a critical threshold for the marketplace. If the market happens to break below that threshold, then it's tough to say where the next bottom could be if domestic demand continues to lag behind. April lean hogs closed $0.82 lower at $86.57, June lean hogs closed $0.82 lower at $99.10 and July lean hogs closed $0.85 lower at $100.55. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $0.24 with a weighted average price of $88.84 on 4,315 head. Pork cutouts are unavailable because of packer submission issues. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 489,000 head -- 11,000 head more than a week ago and 2,000 head less than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 2/21/2025: down $0.85, $89.68.

WEDNESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers were slightly more aggressive in Tuesday's cash market, but it's likely that they'll still need more hogs and procure them on Wednesday.

Tuesday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Continue to Climb Higher

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's another promising day for the cattle complex as both the live cattle and feeder cattle markets are able to again trade higher. Still no developments have surfaced in the cash market, but asking prices are now noted in the South at $200 plus. May corn is down 5 1/2 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $1.50. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 47.75 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex is continuing to trade higher and with boxed beef prices higher as well -- a sense of bullishness is again taking hold of the market. February live cattle are up $0.90 at $199.80, April live cattle are up $0.87 at $195.97 and June live cattle are up $1.15 at $192.55. The spot April contract is still tanking below its 40-day moving average, but thankfully every day that the market continues to trade higher, it's not only getting closer to that pivotal threshold in which bulls hope that the market reconquers quickly. Also, every day the market trades higher, it's distancing itself from the 100-day moving average. No developments have surfaced in the cash cattle market. Asking prices are noted at $200 plus in the South, but are still not established in the North.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.99 ($315.72) and select up $2.20 ($306.17) with a movement of 70 loads (39.07 loads of choice, 10.47 loads of select, 12.17 loads of trim and 8.49 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex is continuing to trade higher, advancing by leaps and bounds as the market is trading an additional $2.00 higher Tuesday on top of Monday's $3.00 to $4.00 higher close. Friday's supportive Cattle on Feed report has undoubtedly helped the market regain the support of traders, but even though the complex was challenged this past month, the underpinning of the marketplace remained bullish at heart. March feeders are up $2.72 at $275.02, April feeders are up $2.60 at $274.62 and May feeders are up $2.60 at $272.95.

LEAN HOGS:

The technical downturn is continuing to pressure the lean hog complex as the market is again trading lower Tuesday. And with morning cutout values lower and the cash market not lending any support -- traders have little hope of trading the market higher Tuesday. April lean hogs are down $0.52 at $86.90, June lean hogs are down $0.75 at $99.15 and July lean hogs are down $0.72 at $100.67. The loin's $4.00 decline mixed with the belly's $2.97 drop is the biggest reason why the carcass price is lower Tuesday morning.

The project lean hog index for 2/24/2025 is down $0.21 at $89.47, and the actual index for 2/21/2025 is down $0.85 at $89.68. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 1,116 head have traded this morning and that the market's five-day rolling average now sits at $91.69. Pork cutouts total 175.03 loads with 151.59 loads of pork cuts and 23.44 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.85, $96.58.

Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Cattle Futures Should See Follow-Through Strength

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Traders decided the market was overdone to the downside with the Cattle on Feed report providing a catalyst for buying Monday. Feeder cattle futures showed greater interest as nearby contracts gained over $4.00. The placements on the report were below the average trade estimate, providing buying support. Feeder cattle have been in a better technical position than live cattle, leading the complex higher. Boxed beef prices were higher Monday with choice up $2.96 and select up $1.41. This may be short-lived but should provide further support Tuesday. It is uncertain what cash will do this week but further weakness is possible as feedlots may need to move more cattle rather than have them gain weight. Packers continue to hold the line on slaughter, which has been to their advantage recently.

Hog futures could not find solid footing Monday, except for the December and later contracts. Traders were not ready to buy back into the market after the liquidation that took place last week. Traders need confirmation of stronger demand before they feel confident enough to step back in. The National Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $1.48. A weaker cash price was expected to begin the week, but packers may be more aggressive Tuesday. Pork cutouts gained $1.36 and could provide support to the market. Futures may rebound in time to regain much of what was lost and close the chart gaps left last week.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	The Cattle on Feed report may have been enough to stem the selling tide as the market may have been overdone to the downside.	1)	Feedlots may need to move more cattle this week and may sell at lower prices rather than wait and receive no benefit from holding back.
2)	Feedlots may not be quite as aggressive sellers this week as they may have moved most of the cattle they needed to over the past three weeks. This may stabilize cash.	2)	The strength of boxed beef may be short-lived as consumers may still shy away from high beef prices. Food costs continue to rise.
3)	Hog futures may be overdone to the downside with futures nearing support. A further rebound in cutouts could trigger buying interest.	3)	Traders may be cautious about buying into hog futures unless they see consistent evidence of continued strong demand. That has been lacking recently.
4)	The April through July hog contracts have a chart gap above the market from last week. Chart gaps are generally filled.	4)	Hog futures need to find support soon or further liquidation is possible as funds may reduce their net-long positions. Support needs to hold or stops could be triggered.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Cattle Find Some Technical Support Following Friday's Cattle on Feed Report

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle complex was able to trade higher throughout Monday's market as traders were relieved to see some support stem from Friday's Cattle on Feed report. New showlists appear to be lower in all major feeding states. March corn is down 8 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $3.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 96.52 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

It was a strong day for the live cattle complex as traders opted to find support in Friday's Cattle on Feed report and use that positive note to help push the contracts higher through Monday's trade. April live cattle closed $1.15 higher at $195.10, June live cattle closed $1.07 higher at $191.40 and August live cattle closed $1.25 higher at $190.22. It would be putting the cart before the horse to say that a bottom has been found for the market's current move and that traders will now actively work to advance the market -- but if good effort on their behalf is shown this week -- then maybe, just maybe, the market may think of changing its trend from lower to higher once again. New showlists appear to be lower in all major feeding states. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 95,000 head -- steady with last week but 26,000 head less than a year ago.

Last week, Southern live cattle traded at mostly $199, which is $4.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $315, which is $5.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 48,723 head. Of that, 89% (43,418 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 11% (5,305 head) were committed to the deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.96 ($313.73) and select up $1.41 ($303.97) with a movement of 85 loads (46.45 loads of choice, 15.61 loads of select, 9.18 loads of trim and 13.29 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Although packers committed the majority of last week's purchase to the nearby delivery, they still didn't buy very many cattle. And if they intend to keep enough supply around them moving forward, they're likely going to need to secure more inventory.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Monday was a prosperous day for the feeder cattle complex as the market jumped $3.00 to $4.00 higher by the day's close -- seeming to mostly be encouraged by last Friday's Cattle on Feed report. But I also believe that traders are again willing to look at the buyer demand in the countryside and pay it its respect as even though over the last month the market's technical have suffered, all in all, buyer demand has remained incredibly strong and with every day that the market gets closer to green grass, feeder cattle and calves are only likely to get more expensive. March feeders closed $4.35 higher at $282.30, April feeders closed $4.47 higher at $272.02 and May feeders closed $4.42 higher at $270.35. It was both relieving and encouraging to see the spot March contract again conquer its 40-day moving average, which has remained a critical price point for the futures complex. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week and at their mid-session point, feeder steers were trading steady to $3.00 higher and feeder heifers were trading steady to $2.00 higher. Steer calves were selling $3.00 to $8.00 higher, with stocker calves trading up to $10.00 to $15.00 higher. Stocker heifers were selling $10.00 to $20.00 higher. There was a stronger undertone for cattle that were suitable for grass. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 54%. The CME feeder cattle index 2/21/2025: up $0.53, $279.37.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex couldn't shake the heavy weight that overcame its market last week as most of its nearby contracts continued to trade lower but some of the deferred contracts did close slightly higher. April lean hogs closed $0.27 lower at $87.40, June lean hogs closed $0.70 lower at $99.92 and July lean hogs closed $0.55 lower at $101.40. Again, this afternoon, it was comforting to see that pork cutout values closed higher and that besides the rib and the ham, every other cut closed higher. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.48 with a weighted average price of $88.60 on 730 head. Pork cutouts totaled 245.74 loads, with 212.56 loads of pork cuts and 33.18 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.36, $98.43. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head -- steady with last week but 2,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 2/20/2025: up $0.69, $90.53.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Higher. Given that packers hardly participated in Monday's market, they'll likely be more aggressive on Tuesday.