Tuesday Morning Livestock Market Update - Markets May Have Tariffs Factored In

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle futures bounced off their lows on Monday but could not find sufficient buying interest to move futures into positive territory. The implementation of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and additional tariffs on China on Tuesday has put pressure on the market. China will retaliate beginning March 10 with a 10% tariff on beef and pork among other agricultural products, with 15% on chicken, wheat, and corn. It is uncertain whether this will curtail demand for these products, which will be more expensive. However, higher prices may result in consumers purchasing less of it. It is uncertain whether the market has this already factored in. Boxed beef prices were higher Monday with choice up $2.10 and select up $0.36.

Hog futures closed with minor gains Monday after initially making new lows. It is difficult to say whether the liquidation has run its course or if further weakness will be seen. The implementation of tariffs Tuesday may put additional pressure on the market as China will retaliate with 10% tariffs on pork beginning March 10. They are a large importer of pork and the impact is difficult to determine. Higher prices may curtail demand, leaving more pork to be absorbed domestically. The market may already have this more than factored in and could see further gains today. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash down $1.61. Pork cutouts increased $1.37.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Cattle futures may have the potential impact of tariffs already factored in, which could result in a bounce in prices.	1)	China listed tariffs on beef of 10% that will take effect on March 10 as retaliation to the additional tariffs put on Chinese imports Tuesday..
2)	Cattle numbers remain tight and rebuilding the beef herd will take some time to accomplish. This should continue to support prices.	2)	The weakness of cash cattle over the past month may be extended this week as packers remain uncertain over demand and will not pay higher.
3)	Hog futures have declined substantially over the past two weeks in anticipation of the tariffs. The market may be overdone to the downside and futures may rebound.	3)	China listed tariffs on pork of 10% to take effect on March 10 in retaliation to the additional tariffs by the U.S. put on Chinese imports today.
4)	Packers should purchase hogs more aggressively Tuesday as they need to buy to maintain the current slaughter pace.	4)	New lows in hog futures on Monday do not indicate support has been found. There needs to be evidence of increasing demand.

Monday Closing Livestock Market Update - Hogs Find Support While Cattle Continue to Trade Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

All in all, Monday's market was lackluster at best as the cattle contracts closed lower and although the lean hog complex closed slightly higher, it's likely the market will be pressured on Tuesday as President Trump announced this afternoon that starting on Tuesday (3/4/2025) a 25% tariff will go into play for both Mexico and Canada. May corn is down 13 1/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $2.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 781.82 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The live cattle complex rounded out the day with the same weak nature it possessed throughout Monday's trade. Without any positive fundamental support coming to fruition, traders were left with the same unsettled nature they possessed late last week. April live cattle closed $0.40 lower at $192.25, June live cattle closed $0.67 lower at $188.10 and August live cattle closed $0.75 lower at $187.17. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 102,000 head -- 7,000 head more than a week ago and 15,000 head less than a year ago. This week's showlists are higher in Kansas, but lower in Texas and Nebraska/Colorado.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at $197, which is $2.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at $313, which is also $2.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 55,893 head. Of that, 97% (54,475 head) were committed to the market's nearby delivery, while the remaining 3% (1,418 head) were committed to the deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.10 ($313.93) and select up $0.36 ($302.41) with a movement of 100 loads (58.82 loads of choice, 21.37 loads of select, 7.53 loads of trim and 12.22 loads of ground beef).

TUESDAY'S CATTLE CALL: Lower. With not seeing much change in seasonal beef demand yet, it's unlikely that they push cash cattle prices higher this week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

With the live cattle market's stern commitment to trading lower, the feeder cattle complex was pressured to do the same thing throughout Monday's trade. March feeders closed $0.95 lower at $274.02, April feeders closed $0.95 lower at $272.05 and May feeders closed $0.92 lower at $270.20. And unless the live cattle complex finds some support this week, it's likely that the feeder cattle market will continue to trade in the live cattle market's wake as an unsettled nature has rooted its way into the cattle sector. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week and at their midsession point, feeder steers and heifers were trading steady to $3.00 lower, but stocker steers and steer calves were trading $10.00 to $15.00 higher. Stocker heifers and heifer calves were trading mostly steady. Feeder cattle supply over 600 pounds was 60%. The CME feeder cattle index 2/28/2025: down $0.48, $280.58.

LEAN HOGS:

The lean hog complex was able to finally find some technical support following last week's sharp sell-off, but it's yet to be seen what tomorrow's market will bring as a 25% tariff is going into effect tomorrow for both Mexico and Canada. On the one hand, there's a chance that traders have already taken that fact into account and have it factored into the market, but there's just as likely of a chance that prices drop lower again on Tuesday as traders will likely react poorly to the trade development. April lean hogs closed $0.02 higher at $83.70, June lean hogs closed $0.32 higher at $95.35 and July lean hogs closed $0.55 higher at $97.30. Hog prices closed lower on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, down $1.61 with a weighted average price of $88.41 on 980 head. Pork cutouts totaled 238.29 loads, with 216.71 loads of pork cuts and 21.59 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.37, $99.79. Monday's slaughter is estimated at 490,000 head -- steady with last week and 5,000 head more than a year ago. The CME lean hog index 2/27/2025: up $0.05, $89.44.

TUESDAY'S HOG CALL: Steady. Packers will likely want to see how the announcement of tariffs affects the market before they buy aggressively this week in the cash sector.

Monday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Cattle Continue to Dip Lower

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It's a mixed morning for the livestock complex as the lean hog contracts have found a little support, but the cattle contracts continue to be pressured. And with last week's cash cattle trade sending 97% of its cattle to the nearby delivery, prices could likely be lower again this week. May corn is down 13 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is down $1.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 43.22 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

As many assumed, the live cattle complex is following in Friday's wake as the market continues to trade lower. April live cattle are down $0.62 at $192.02, June live cattle are down $1.00 at $187.77 and August live cattle are down $0.90 at $187.02. And now that traders have seemed to agree on the fact that the market is at risk for even more downside potential, everyone involved in the cattle complex is gritting their teeth wondering where the next major support plane could be. From a sheer technical standpoint, the next major support plane for the spot April contract is around $188. This week's showlists are higher in Kansas, but lower in Texas, and Nebraska/Colorado.

Last week Southern live cattle traded at $197 which is $2.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at $313 which is also $2.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 55,893 head. Of that, 97% (54,475 head) were committed to the market's nearby delivery, while the remaining 3% (1,418 head) were committed to the deferred delivery option.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice up $1.30 ($313.13) and select down $0.24 ($301.81) with a movement of 51 loads (28.51 loads of choice, 10.14 loads of select, 5.07 loads of trim and 7.25 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Upon seeing the live cattle complex continue in its downward trend, the feeder cattle contracts are also trading fully lower despite the significant gains the market made just last week. March feeders are down $1.30 at $273.67, April feeders are down $1.57 at $271.42 and May feeders are down $1.42 at $269.62. Without some support from the live cattle complex, the feeder cattle market will likely remain on edge and skeptical of trading any higher in the immediate future.

LEAN HOGS:

After last week's sharp decline, the lean hog contracts are finally finding some technical footing in the futures complex. April lean hogs are up $0.32 at $84.00, June lean hogs are up $0.75 at $95.77 and July lean hogs are up $0.95 at $97.65. What's especially crazy about the lean hog market's developments this morning is the sharp rally in carcass prices, which is being wildly inflated by the belly's $31.89 jump. The ham is up $4.75, and the butt is up $3.51, which are both helping push the carcass price higher, but the belly's rally is whiplash worthy.

The projected lean hog index for 2/28/2025 is up $0.50 at $89.94, and the actual index for 2/27/2025 is up $0.05 at $89.44. Hog prices are unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report because of confidentiality. However, we can see that only 230 head have traded today and that the market's rolling average now sits at $90.23. Pork cutouts total 148.63 loads with 134.50 loads of pork cuts and 14.13 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $7.06, $105.48.

Monday Morning Livestock Market Update - Mixed Activity as Traders Wait for Price Direction

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Feedlots were hoping for no worse than steady money Friday, but the pressure on boxed beef prices during the week and the packers slowing slaughter pushed them into selling the cattle that were ready for the market. Holding for higher cash has not been profitable over the past weeks as those cattle were sold at yet lower prices. Southern cattle traded $2.00 lower at $197 while Northern dressed cattle traded $2.00 lower at $313. Feedlots may have difficulty achieving steady cash under the current market environment this week. Boxed beef prices were mixed on Friday with choice up $0.65 with select down $0.08. Boxed beef prices are expected to be under pressure again this week. Feeder cattle continue to remain in strong demand. It will be interesting to see whether the good prices will hold. The Commitments of Traders report showed the fund traders as net sellers of 7,593 futures contracts in live cattle, bringing their net-long position to 120,010. The funds sold 1,688 feeder cattle futures contracts, reducing their net-long position to 26,9769.

Hogs plummeted on Thursday and Friday after making a valiant attempt to rally on Wednesday. Much of the bearishness seems to be the concern over the impact tariffs could have on pork exports. This has resulted in a $10.00 decline in hog futures over the past two weeks. Pork cutouts on Friday declined $2.54, increasing the concern over demand moving forward. Belly prices have been very volatile with a decline of $22.88 on Friday. The slaughter pace remains strong and packers need hogs to maintain the pace. The National Daily Direct Afternoon Hog report showed cash up $0.53 as packers were short-bought and needed to be more aggressive to procure the hogs they needed. The Commitments of Traders report showed the funds as net sellers of 22,527 futures contracts in hogs, reducing their net-long position to 89,218.

	BULL SIDE		BEAR SIDE
1)	Mixed boxed beef prices Friday may indicate prices may be low enough to stimulate consumer demand.	1)	Live cattle futures broke through and closed below support. The previous support level may now become resistance limiting upside price potential.
2)	Feeder cattle made a new high on Friday before selling pushed the market lower. The trend is still up.	2)	Feedlots face the decision of whether to sell cattle this week at the best price they can get or hold and possibly receive a lower price the following week.
3)	Hog futures are oversold and should see a relief bounce as selling may subside as the market may be overdone to the downside.	3)	Hog futures closed at another level of support. This will need to be held, or further selling will surface.
4)	Hog futures have a chart gap remaining substantially higher and chart gaps usually are filled.	4)	Traders may not want to do much before President Trump's address to a Joint Session of Congress on Tuesday, as they are uncertain what that may mean to the markets.