Thursday, June 13, 2019

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Prices Stabilize

General Comments
Strong early pressure in cattle and hog futures has softened as trade volume increased. Hog futures have posted firm gains midday as traders continue to push prices higher and lower in the established trading range. Feeder cattle futures remain under pressure, but have quickly shifted from initial losses. Corn futures are higher in moderate trade. July corn futures are 9 1/2 cents higher. Stock markets are higher in light trade. Dow Jones is 46 points higher with NASDAQ up 34 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle futures have steadily regained ground Thursday morning, moving away from initial triple-digit losses, now trading in a narrowly mixed pattern. The inability for aggressive losses to hold despite increased production costs is focusing on stable demand through the near future and the potential for increased support over the next couple of weeks. Traders are establishing a moderate trading range, which may be able to contain prices through the end of June even with outside market volatility developing. Cash cattle markets are still quiet with a few bids developing in the North at $112 to $114 live and $185 dressed. Southern bids have yet to developed Thursday, potentially pushing active trade until Friday. Asking prices remain at $115 and higher live and $188 and higher dressed. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are mixed, $1.00 lower (select) and up $0.05 per cwt (choice) with moderate movement of 94 total loads reported (45 loads of choice cuts, 16 loads of select cuts, 11 loads of trimmings, 7 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Triple-digit losses continue to hold in feeder cattle trade Thursday morning following sharp early losses. Renewed gains in corn futures have created additional pressure in all feeder cattle trade. This sparked sharp $3 per cwt losses during initial activity, but markets have moderated through the morning with prices $0.75 to $1.50 per cwt lower at midday. The expectation that firm pressure will continue to be seen through the end of the session as well as late-week activity is keeping most buyers on the sidelines.
LEAN HOGS:
Firm buying has returned to lean hog trade Thursday morning as midweek pressure ran its course with limited long term pressure redeveloping. The underlying concern surrounding trade with China remains a major obstacle but with little developments in trade talks and the expectation that this may continue for an extended period of time, trades seem to be adjusting to known demand. This is likely to keep prices hovering in the current market range, although prices are expected to bounce within this range over an extended period of time. The most active buying is seen in late 2020 contracts with prices 70 cents to $1 per cwt higher at midday. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $1.75 at $74.32 per cwt with the range from $68 to $75.10 on 3,207 head reported sold. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. Pork values stabilized as gains in rib cuts was offset by belly values. Pork cutouts fell $0.02 per cwt at $82.49 per cwt with 154 loads traded. Lean hog index for 6/11 is $79.54, down 0.12, with a projected two-day index is $79.57, up 0.03.


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