Thursday, June 27, 2019

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - Limited Activity Puts Pressure on Cattle Futures

General Comments
Cattle futures remain sluggish Thursday as limited interest has redeveloped following Wednesday's market rally. The potential for underlying support to trickle into the complex through the end of the session is likely to add to the growing support in cattle futures. Hog futures remain firmly higher despite limited volume. Corn futures are lower in light trade. July corn futures are 4 cents lower. Stock markets are higher in light trade. Dow Jones is 31 points higher with NASDAQ up 51 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Mixed trade is holding Thursday morning with most contracts hovering in a narrowly mixed range. Lightly traded June futures are posting triple-digit gains, but light open interest in June trade is keeping these market swings irrelevant with most active trade in August and October contracts, each holding 35 cent gains. The ability to spark additional underlying support through the end of the session could bring additional interest back to the Friday. Cash cattle activity remains at a standstill Thursday morning which is likely to push any active trade off until Friday. Bids are undeveloped Thursday morning in the South, while a few bids have redeveloped in the North at $107 to $108 live and $175 to $176 dressed. Asking prices are well above these levels, and given the stability of futures trade Thursday, feeders are not likely to be interested in prices near current bids. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are lower, $0.26 lower (select) and down $0.08 per cwt (choice) with moderate movement of 56 total loads reported (26 loads of choice cuts, 14 loads of select cuts, 6 loads of trimmings, 10 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Mixed trade is holding across feeder cattle trade with august futures maintaining narrow gains, while the rest of the complex is eroding slightly. Most of the pressure seen Thursday morning is traders taking advantage of light volume and squaring positions following the rally Wednesday. At this point, it appears there will be no attempt or desire to reach expanded trading limits with most contracts hovering from 30 cents lower to 30 cents higher. Limited direction at the end of the month will help confirm recent support, but may limit renewed interest during early July.
LEAN HOGS:
Firm underlying buyer support has moved back into lean hog trade with buyers pushing prices $1 to $2.30 per cwt higher Thursday. Although there continues to be fundamental market pressure across the entire lean hog complex, end-of-month buying is moving into the complex. The quarterly hogs and pigs report will be released Thursday afternoon. Although the report is not expected to create a significant market shift, traders are adjusting positions ahead of the report with expectations that long-term hog supplies will be reduced due to the pressure in the market and recent sharp gains in feed prices. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $1.59 at $69.11 per cwt with the range from $62 to $71 on 3,036 head reported sold. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. Pork values bounced higher on firm belly market gains. Pork cutouts added $1.38 per cwt at $75.35 per cwt with 153 loads traded. Lean hog index for 6/25 is $77.91, down 0.40, with a projected two-day index is $77.26, down 0.65.


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