Thursday, October 3, 2019

Thursday Closing Livestock Market Summary - Gains Found in the Closing Hours

GENERAL COMMENTS:
All in all, Thursdays close treated the livestock complex well. Live cattle, feeder cattle and corn contracts all closed higher, and parts of the lean hog market did too. Hog prices are down $0.16 Thursday afternoon on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, with a weighted average of $49.99. December corn is up 1 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 122.42 points and NASDAQ is up 87.01 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
Live cattle contracts all closed higher Thursday afternoon, posting gains anywhere from 15 to 75 cents higher. The October live cattle contract broke above pre-Tyson fire prices Thursday afternoon at $106.80, which is the highest the contract has been since early August. Though live cattle contracts still struggle in shear cumulative volume, if nothing more, reaching $106.80 will help with countryside psychology. Live cattle equivalent index: down $0.01 at $136.29.
Thursday afternoon boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.91 ($212.06) and select up $1.31 ($187.21), with a moderate offering a total of 164 loads (71.58 loads of choice cuts, 36.01 loads of select cuts, 27.34 loads of trim and 28.97 loads of ground beef).
FRIDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: $1 higher. Largely depending on how the board performs Friday, cash cattle are sitting in a comfortable position for higher prices again this week. With October live cattle prices finally surging over the August 9 threshold, feedlots will feel a sense of support and most likely stick to their initial prices of $108. Packers started bids this week at $105 in most states, and have bumped up bids to $106 in Kansas, and bought some pens in Texas for $106. Worse case scenario, both parties meet in the middle Friday and buy/sell cattle for $106 to $107 and feedlots still make more than last week's weighed average.
FEEDER CATTLE:
Feeder cattle closed higher, just slightly under the day's opening mark at $142.35. Last year at this time feeder cattle were trading around $157.00 before the market gave way to a downward seasonal trend. Given the slight support found in the live cattle market, so long as cash cattle aren't sold Friday for $1 to $2 lower, feeder cattle should close the week on a steady note.
LEAN HOGS:
December lean hogs closed at $68.10. Nearby contracts are feeling some pressure where as deferred contracts are seeing slight $0.05 to $0.37 gains. Pork cutout: up $1.24 at $75.36. Lean hog equivalent index: up $1.24 at $80.10.
FRIDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady. Until next week's trade conversation with China has taken place, sideways trade would be the safe bet for lean hog market. Though supported by higher cutout prices, the lean hog complex will probably take the back burner for a couple more days.

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