Thursday, March 19, 2020

Thursday Midday Livestock Market Summary - One Higher, One Lower Trap

General Comments
Livestock contracts are caught in a one day higher, one day lower trap this week. The complex has had no pressure or hesitation about moving forward and unless the market is presented with something unforeseen at the time, the livestock sector should be able to close higher at the end of the day. June live cattle are up $2.98 at $88.90, May feeder cattle are up $4.50 at $113.025, June lean hogs are up $2.90 at $70.20, May corn is up 12 3/4 cents per bushel and May soybean meal is up $12.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 35.81 points and NASDAQ is up 116.95 points.
LIVE CATTLE
The live cattle contracts are adamant about pushing prices as close to $3.00 gains as possible throughout both nearby and deferred contracts. April live cattle are up $3.00 higher at $95.10, June live cattle are up $3.00 at $88.92 and August live cattle are up $3.00 at $89.65. The cash cattle market has been relatively quiet with only a few scattered bids being report. Asking prices for cattle still left on show lists are priced at $115 in the South, and $178 in the North.
Beef net sales of 21,100 mt reported for 2020 were up 20% from the previous week and up 33% from the prior four-week average. The three main increases were from South Korea (7,300 mt, including decreases of 400 mt), Japan (4,000 mt including decreases of 700 mt) and Canada (2,700 mt including decreases of 100 mt).
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $3.27 ($250.51) and select up $3.98 ($242.48) with a movement of 95 loads (60.55 loads of choice, 10.33 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 23.71 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE
Feeder cattle contracts are $2.62 to $4.50 higher heading into the noon hour. March feeders are up $4.50 at $117.07, April feeders are up $4.50 at $114.12 and May feeders are up $4.50 at $113.02. Although contracts are moving steadily higher into the afternoon, it's hard to get excited about Thursday's positive trade until it develops into something more than just a day's trade. A week's worth of steady, gradual gains would be noteworthy, but the back and forth choppy trade of higher and lower aren't solidly beneficial.
LEAN HOGS
The lean hog complex is heading for higher prices on the futures market, but Thursday morning's cash hog market is slightly weaker. April lean hogs are up $3.00 at $61.15, June lean hogs are up $2.75 at $70.07 and July lean hogs are up $2.47 at $72.82. Seeing that cutout prices are up over $5.00 will entice packers to keep processing speeds elevated.
Pork net sales of 35,700 mt report for 2020 were down noticeably for the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior four-week average. The three main increases were from China (15,700 mt), Mexico (8,600 mt) and Japan (3,900 mt).
The projected lean hog index for 3/18/2020 is up $0.76 at $61.34 and the actual index for 3/17/2020 is up $0.84 at $60.58. Hog prices are lower on the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.19 with a weighted average of $56.10, ranging from $47.00 to $60.00 on 5,140 head sold and a five-day rolling average of $54.74. Pork cutouts total 207.32 loads with 188.05 loads of pork cuts and 19.28 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $5.31, $80.21.


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