Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Wednesday Closing Livestock Market Update - Technical Support, Higher Meat Prices Boost Futures

GENERAL COMMENTS:

It was a strong day throughout the livestock contracts as the entire marketplace closed higher. It was especially surprising to see the feeder cattle contracts close higher amid the corn market's jump in prices well above $6.00 a bushel. Hog prices closed higher on the National Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $4.09 with a weighted average of $70.28 on 9,911 head. March corn is up 11 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is up $8.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 339.82 points and NASDAQ is down 166.64 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Seeing how strong the market traded Wednesday leaves one bitter that cash cattle opted to trade early in the week as they could have likely gotten steady money with last week's market if feedlots would have waited just a little longer to trade. The futures market traded mostly $1.00 stronger, finding ample technical support and feeling extremely confident in the demand stemming from higher boxed beef prices. Wednesday was a big day for boxed beef prices as both choice and select cuts closed over $2.00 stronger. February live cattle closed $0.87 higher at $138.55, April live cattle closed $1.50 higher at $143.35 and June live cattle closed $1.40 higher at $138.47. There was another light round of cash cattle market trade, but all trade was steady with the week's earlier business -- which means lower prices than a week ago or cattle trading with time. Throughout the week, Northern dressed deals have been marked at mostly $218, fully steady with last week's weighted averages. The majority these cattle are set for delivery the week of Jan. 31 and Feb. 7. Southern live transactions have been at mostly $137, $1 to $1.50 higher than last week's weighted averages. 

Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 115,000 head -- 1,000 head more than a week ago and 6,000 head less than a year ago.

Boxed beef prices closed higher: choice up $2.11 ($291.60) and select up $2.04 ($280.43) with a movement of 115 loads (64.28 loads of choice, 17.30 loads of select, 10.96 loads of trim and 22.88 loads of ground beef).

THURSDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady with the week's trend. Given that cattle have traded in both regions, it's likely prices stay steady throughout the remainder of the week.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Even with the corn market blowing past $6.00 a bushel to round out the day at $6.07 to $6.11 per bushel, the feeder cattle contracts pushed higher amid the technical strength stemming from the live cattle complex. January feeders closed $0.05 lower at $161.40, March feeders closed $0.20 higher at $165.62 and April feeders closed $0.47 higher at $170.05. Demand throughout the country's sale barns was a little more reserved than the futures market rally as buyers were aggressive the past two weeks in filling their orders and foresee some hiccups on the fundamental side that still need worked through in the short term. At Miles City Livestock Commission in Miles City, Montana, compared to last week on a run on 3,371 head feeder steers sold $5.00 to $15.00 lower, and heifer calves traded $5.00 to $10.00 lower on all offerings. There were very few takers this week compared to last week's abundant attendance. It's still evident that cattle suitable to run on grass are selling with the best demand. Cattle feeders in the Corn Belt were not as aggressive in this week's offering as many of them show hesitancy about jumping into more cattle as processing speeds are still not completely back up to par, and the corn market is back up to $6.10 a bushel in its nearby contracts. The CME Feeder Cattle Index 1/18/2022: down $0.12, $161.24.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures bolted higher as demand was seen from nearly every side of the market -- cash hogs traded higher, pork cutouts closed higher and the futures market saw gains mostly above $1.00 stronger. February lean hogs closed $0.70 higher at $82.30, April lean hogs closed $2.07 higher at $91.35 and June lean hogs closed $1.52 higher at $101.87. The sporadic jumps in the pork cutout value are again noted Wednesday afternoon as cutouts jumped over $8.00 higher with an astonishing $30.61 jump in ham prices alone. As retailers restock their coolers, the market has seen prices jump higher as the lag in production the last two weeks has hindered available supplies. Pork cutouts total 387.33 loads with 353.66 loads of pork cuts and 33.67 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $8.26, $95.47. As processing speeds show signs of trying to get back to normal, packers have been more aggressive in the cash market as they are reaping profits from the meat and want to ensure they have product to sell. Wednesday's slaughter is estimated at 457,000 head -- 24,000 head more than a week ago and 43,000 head less than a year ago. The CME Lean Hog Index 1/17/2022: up $0.88, $76.78.

THURSDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat lower. The market will likely see interest from packers again, but it's likely prices trade steady to somewhat lower after they upped the market over $4.00 on Wednesday.




No comments:

Post a Comment