GENERAL COMMENTS:
The live cattle market is trading mixed into Thursday afternoon as the cattle contracts find themselves fully supported, but the lean hog contracts are being pushed lower as pork cutout prices and slaughter speeds have been lagging. The gust of support that's infiltrated the cattle market has largely come from the feeder cattle market as sales are reporting sharply higher prices and the corn market is again trading lower. December corn is down 22 3/4 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $5.70. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 74.99 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle contracts are rallying into Thursday's afternoon as the market picks up some of the momentum stemming from the feeder cattle market, and as it thankfully absorbs Thursday's stronger export report. August live cattle are up $0.57 at $132.75, October live cattle are up $0.22 at $139.12 and December live cattle are up $0.45 at $145.07. The board thankfully didn't break below its resistance at $132.00 and seems to be confidently trading higher even though cash prices didn't run higher this week. The cash cattle market hasn't seen any renewed interest and it's likely that the bulk of this week's business is done with. So far this week, Southern live business has been marked at mostly $138, that is steady to roughly $1 lower than last week's weighted averages. Northern dressed deals were marked at mostly $234, not quite $1 lower than last week's weighted average basis in Nebraska. Colorado had some late sales at $145, about steady with last week's weighted average.
Beef net sales of 17,000 mt for 2022 were up 52% from the previous week and 6% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (5,100 mt), China (4,500 mt) and Japan (2,000 mt).
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.00 ($263.88) and select down $0.41 ($240.40) with a movement of 68 loads (46.47 loads of choice, 13.00 loads of select, 4.34 loads of trim and 3.93 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
If you've been paying attention to feeder cattle sales this past week, you know and understand just how strong the cash feeder cattle market is. Thankfully Thursday's board has come to its senses and is now trading higher as the market absorbs the robust sales that Wednesday reported and the lower corn prices in Thursday's market. August feeder cattle are up $2.65 at $173.37, September feeder cattle are up $2.25 at $176.02 and October feeders are up $2.17 at $178.57.
LEAN HOGS:
You would have thought that Wednesday's neutral to slightly favorable Quarterly report would have helped the lean hog complex find footing in Thursday's market, but that hasn't been the case. July lean hogs are down $0.52 at $108.87, August lean hogs are down $2.12 at $101.45 and October lean hogs are down $2.02 at $88.57. What seems to be pressuring the market more than anything is the combination of weaker pork cutout values and waning slaughter speeds. It was positive to see 32,300 mt of pork reported in Thursday's morning export data, and export data will continue to be a factor of the market that needs watched closely as moving product could help with prices later into 2022.
Pork net sales of 32,300 mt for 2022 were up 27% from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Mexico (20,700 mt), Japan (3,700 mt) and Australia (2,700 mt).
The projected lean hog index for 6/29/2022 is down $0.40 at $110.84, and the actual index for 6/28/2022 is down $0.38 at $111.24. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $3.75 with a weighted average of $116.11, ranging from $112.00 to $123.00 and on 4,039 head and a five-day rolling average of $117.72. Pork cutouts total 114.91 loads with 97.79 loads of pork cuts and 17.12 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.47, $107.09.
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