GENERAL COMMENTS:
It was a lower waning day for the livestock complex as the live cattle, feeder cattle and lean hog contracts all saw lower closes on the day. Wednesday afternoon's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report is going to be highly sought after and it's expected to shape the market's nearby trend. Cash cattle business should begin to develop by midmorning Wednesday and prices could be higher. Hog prices closed higher on the Daily Direct Afternoon Hog Report, up $4.65 with a weighted average of $119.78 on 8,752 head. July corn is up 15 1/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $12.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 491.27 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle contracts kept with their lower move through Tuesday's close as traders seem unwilling to support the market until they're given some sort of fundamental reassurance. August live cattle closed $0.75 lower at $132.72, October live cattle closed $0.72 lower at $139.40 and December live cattle closed $0.55 lower at $145.25. The cash cattle market didn't see much business develop throughout Tuesday's hours as packers know that Northern feedlots aren't going to be pushed into selling their cattle for cheaper money, and it's looking like Southern feedlots are hungry to better prices too. Asking prices in the Sough have been pinned at $140, and the North has yet to share their initial asking price for the week. Nevertheless, the slight uptick in boxed beef prices and the undeniable fact that showlists are still manageable leads one to confidently believe that prices could be steady to somewhat higher again this week.
Boxed beef prices closed lower: choice down $1.54 ($267.14) and select down $1.93 ($243.31) with a movement of 154 loads (93.28 loads of choice, 29.78 loads of select, 18.73 loads of trim and 11.76 loads of ground beef).
WEDNESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Given that cattle have yet to trade, it's very likely that the market sees higher prices when the cash cattle market does indeed start to sell cattle. The upside potential of this week's market will really depend on how badly packers need cattle and in what region they're needing them in.
FEEDER CATTLE:
With the corn market keeping its $0.08 to $0.15 rally through closing, the feeder cattle complex trended lower throughout the day and didn't even attempt to lift its head and trade higher. August feeders closed $2.30 lower at $171.82, September feeders closed $1.85 lower at $174.95 and October feeders closed $1.42 lower at $177.50. The feeder cattle market's pressures and lack of support were multifaceted, as not only were corn prices higher, but the live cattle market lent no support, as its contracts closed lower and the cash cattle market has yet to really trade cattle and determine a tone for the week. At Oklahoma National Stockyards in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, compared to last week, feeder steers over 800 pounds traded $2.00 to $6.00 higher, but those under 800 pounds traded steady to $2.00 lower. Feeder heifers sold $1.00 to $4.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves both traded $2.00 to $4.00 higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for June 27: up $1.11, $164.20.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex continued to free-fall lower throughout Tuesday's close and rounded out the day fully lower. July lean hogs closed $0.25 lower at $109.92, August lean hogs closed $1.05 lower at $103.82 and October lean hogs closed $0.82 lower at $90.20. The market is holding above its nearby support plane of $103.25, but the market's pressure is undeniable as waning processing speeds, weakening pork cutout values and depressed futures market all takes its toll on the complex. Traders and hog producers alike are hoping to gain more clarity and understanding of both the market's nearby and long-term trajectories from Wednesday's Quarterly report, which will be shared at 2:00 p.m. CDT. The average estimates for the report shared that all hogs and pigs are estimated at 99.3%, kept for breeding at 98.9% and kept for marketing at 99.3%. Pork cutouts total 322.31 loads with 284.30 loads of pork cuts and 38.01 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $3.56, $105.47. Tuesday's slaughter is estimated at 450,000 head, 18,000 head less than a week ago and 13,000 head less than a year ago. Monday's slaughter was revised to 458,000 head, 8,000 head less than what was originally stated. The CME Lean Hog Index for June 23: up $0.44, $111.35.
WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to somewhat higher. Packers weren't overly aggressive in Tuesday's market, yes prices jumped higher, but less than 9,000 hogs traded.
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