GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is off to a mostly higher start, besides the feeder cattle market, which is oddly trading lower while the live cattle market pushes a modest rally into Monday's noon hour and as corn trades lower. The lean hog market is keeping with its higher trend as the market is hoping that support in pork cutout values continues. March corn is down 7 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $13.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 75.85 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
After last Friday's strong close in the live cattle market, the complex is again trading higher as it aims to tackle this week with the same level of eagerness. The market hasn't been able to break through the resistance at $156.95, and given that this week will see less trade action because of Christmas, it's unlikely that traders will push the market beyond those current resistance levels. However, the support from higher boxed beef prices and steady to $1.00 higher trade in the cash market last week has helped motivate traders again this week. The cash cattle market is hoping to keep cattle trading steady throughout the holiday weeks, but with packers dialing back production speeds, they'll have their work cut out for them. The live cattle market continues to be a battle ground where feedlots point to thinning supplies of market-ready cattle and continued support in the boxed beef sector, all while battling packers to stay active and engaged in the marketplace while they face the thinnest margins they've seen since before 2020. December live cattle are up $0.22 at $155.27, February live cattle are up $0.32 at $156.07 and April live cattle are up $0.25 at $159.95.
Last week most of the cash cattle market waited to trade until Thursday. Northern dressed cattle traded from $243 to $250, but mostly at $248 which is $1.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average. Southern live cattle traded at mostly $155, which is steady to $0.50 lower than the previous week's weighed average. Last week's negotiated cash cattle market traded 74,567 head. Of that, 72% (53,403 head) were committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 28% (21,164 head) were committed for the deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $1.01 ($263.84) and select up $1.66 ($237.11) with a movement of 32 loads (21.46 loads of choice, 5.55 loads of select, zero loads of trim and 4.57 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Normally one would think that, with the corn market trading as much as $0.07 lower in its nearby contracts, the feeder cattle market would be trading higher, but with the Christmas holiday nearing, the market isn't performing as it normally would. Last week most sale barns held their last sale for the year, although some early sales will take place on Monday and Tuesday of this week. But for the most part, the feeder cattle market won't see much action or attention from now through the first of the new year. January feeders are down $1.77 at $182.00, March feeders are down $0.72 at $183.97 and April feeders are down $).52 at $187.60.
LEAN HOGS:
It's seeming as if the momentum that shot Friday's lean hog market over $4.00 higher is still lingering in Monday's trade. Even though the market may not be rallying with the same level of gusto, the complex is keeping with its higher trend, which is a positive gesture given that Friday's market moved as aggressively as it did. February lean hogs are down $0.15 at $85.62, April lean hogs are up $0.37 at $93.10 and June lean hogs are up $0.30 at $106.95. Helping matters is that the pork cutout value found support in late last week, and while we know not to get too overly confident about what the midday value is doing, it's at least supporting the market in its mostly higher trend into Monday's noon hour. Last week's cash hog market didn't see much interest and given that this week and next will be odd schedules because of Christmas, packers aren't expected to be overly aggressive in the market.
The projected lean hog index for Dec. 19 is unavailable at this time, but we can see that the actual index for Dec. 15 is down $0.33 at $81.55. Hog prices are higher on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.45 with a weighted average of $80.39, ranging from $80.00 to $85.00 on 4,591 head and a five-day rolling average of $80.79. Pork cutouts total 191.64 loads with 172.64 loads of pork cuts and 19.00 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.58, $88.02.
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